The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

With an opening like that you would think it would have been able to beat TFA domestically if it had solid legs. Legs don't mean as much as they used to since more people are going OW these days.

Not really. TFA was lighting in the bottle, next 2 movies got their ass whipped by End Game. TFA also got destroyed worldwide so domestically didn't matter too much. Everywhere the legs where weak because of super intense ow demand.

That's like saying HP DP2 did horrible despite crushing DP1. Legs are nice but totals matter alot more. Literally no movie even got close to Avatar in a decade. Avatar 2 won't sniff 3B I bet. 2.5B or lower.

 

Would I rather have box office of Ultron or Aquaman? Ultron in a heart beat. 

Edited November 27, 2019 by cdsacken

[Barnack]

14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not really. TFA was lighting in the bottle, next 2 movies got their ass whipped by End Game. TFA also got destroyed worldwide so domestically didn't matter too much. Everywhere the legs where weak because of super intense ow demand.

That's like saying HP DP2 did horrible despite crushing DP1. Legs are nice but totals matter alot more. Literally no movie even got close to Avatar in a decade. Avatar 2 won't sniff 3B I bet. 2.5B or lower.

 

Would I rather have box office of Ultron or Aquaman? Ultron in a heart beat. 

 

Not sure that a valid comp with what you quoted.

 

It is much more like saying with HP DP 2 opening nearly at 170m you would think that it would have beat The Phantom Menace or sold more ticket than the first Potter movie.

 

Same goes for the Ultron vs Aquaman the comp do not make much sense, do you take TFA domestic box office or End Game domestic box office ?

Edited November 27, 2019 by Barnack

[Porthos]

Tracking is more or less where I expected it.  Probably would have preferred to see "180 to 200" versus "175 to 200" for psychological reasons, but eh. 

 

More to the point, as has been noted more than once on this thread over the years, tracking models break down at this range so I ain't taking 200 as an upper limit.  Not yet at least.

 

As for the rest? Comes down to legs.  And none of us know how that'll play out yet, even if we think we might have a decent idea due to one reason or another.  Simply too many variables at play.

 

(Anything else I have to say is either biased or reinforcing preconceptions)

[cdsacken]

14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Not sure that a valid comp with what you quoted.

 

It is much more like saying with HP DP 2 opening nearly at 170m you would think that it would have beat The Phantom Menace or sold more ticket than the first Potter movie.

 

Same goes for the Ultron vs Aquaman the comp do not make much sense, do you take TFA domestic box office or End Game domestic box office ?

Comparing DP2  a part 2 to inflation adjusted figures of Hp1 ? Nah no thanks.  If using inflation every single has been a massive letdown since gone with the wind. Titantic will crush of most everything else.

 

As others have said OWs are getting bigger and bigger and legs are getting shorter. Movie run period in box office is shrinking and with so many streaming options repeat views are way down. I can't wait to see Avatar 2s run. I expect it will face a ton of hurdles that it didn't in 2009.

 

If SW9 doesn't beat TLJ it's because it's worse most likely. Just like TLJ wasn't near as good as the ones before it. 

 

Phatom menace coming out now wouldn't do TLJ numbers much less adjusted 800 which shows you how phony those numbers are. 

Edited November 27, 2019 by cdsacken

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Comparing DP2  a part 2 to inflation adjusted figures of Hp1 ? Nah no thanks.  If using inflation every single has been a massive letdown since gone with the wind. Titantic will crush of most everything else.

 

As others have said OWs are getting bigger and bigger and legs are getting shorter. Movie run period in box office is shrinking and with so many streaming options repeat views are way down. I can't wait to see Avatar 2s run. I expect it will face a ton of hurdles that it didn't in 2009.

 

If SW9 doesn't beat TLJ it's because it's worse most likely. Just like TLJ wasn't near as good as the ones before it. 

 

Phatom menace coming out now wouldn't do TLJ numbers much less adjusted 800 which shows you how phony those numbers are. 

I'm skeptical of that. It had a lot of hype and would have had a gigantic OW especially if it had remained a May release.

On the tracking, I do think they're being a lot less conservative than usual. DL's details about how TROS is performing relative to TLJ in presales and tracking metrics have me thinking in the 180 million range.

 

[Barnack]

39 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Comparing DP2  a part 2 to inflation adjusted figures of Hp1 ? Nah no thanks.  If using inflation every single has been a massive letdown since gone with the wind. Titantic will crush of most everything else.

Again, that has little to do with what you are quoting (and obviously yes Titanic do crush most release ever and ?). Not one talked about inflation adjusted.

 

39 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

As others have said OWs are getting bigger and bigger and legs are getting shorter.

In 2018 the top 50 domestic had in total a 3.33 multiplier and an average multiplier of 3.832, good one for big openner (from Jurassic world, American Sniper to black panthers to Incredible 2) are still not that uncommon.

 

The top 10 domestic movie had a total multiplier of 3.21 and a 4.273 average multiplier.

 

10 year's before in 2008, the top 50 domestic

Total legs multiplier: 3.34, average 3.39

 

Top 10 was 3.2 total and an average of 4.005.

 

Did they that much, legs of the top 10 domestic in 2018 were bigger than in 2008.

 

Phatom menace coming out now wouldn't do TLJ numbers much less adjusted 800 which shows you how phony those numbers are. 

 

First Star Wars in nearly 40 year's without the bad taste of the PT ? That quite the shot in the dark trying to predict how big it would have got, but you can bet a lot. Phantom Menace was the second biggest movie at the box office without adjusting of all time for a reason.

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2019 by Barnack

[RockyMountain]

The early tracking numbers have been downplayed for a lot of Disney recent releases. For Lion King when Hollywood Reporter came out with their tracking numbers a month out in advance they just said 150+. For Frozen 2 HR just said 100+. And eps VII and VIII seemed to be downplayed as well for their early tracking numbers as well. I think as long as the movie is reviewed well we are still looking at a 200-230m opening (and even if it does come in slightly under TLJ it would be hard to complain much when it was still a 200m+ opening.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, RockyMountain said:

The early tracking numbers have been downplayed for a lot of Disney recent releases. For Lion King when Hollywood Reporter came out with their tracking numbers a month out in advance they just said 150+. For Frozen 2 HR just said 100+. And eps VII and VIII seemed to be downplayed as well for their early tracking numbers as well. I think as long as the movie is reviewed well we are still looking at a 200-230m opening (and even if it does come in slightly under TLJ it would be hard to complain much when it was still a 200m+ opening.

And TS4 was massively overpredicted, we also saw Solo massively overpredicted a year ago. Given that first choice, awareness, and presales (after 2 years of growth in presales) are all lagging TLJ it doesn't seem like they are lowballing this time. Maybe this will be the first SW tracking to be spot on.

[RockyMountain]

27 minutes ago, Menor said:

And TS4 was massively overpredicted, we also saw Solo massively overpredicted a year ago. Given that first choice, awareness, and presales (after 2 years of growth in presales) are all lagging TLJ it doesn't seem like they are lowballing this time. Maybe this will be the first SW tracking to be spot on.

We'll see. Probably depends on what the reviews end up being like.

[TalismanRing]

27 minutes ago, Menor said:

And TS4 was massively overpredicted, we also saw Solo massively overpredicted a year ago. Given that first choice, awareness, and presales (after 2 years of growth in presales) are all lagging TLJ it doesn't seem like they are lowballing this time. Maybe this will be the first SW tracking to be spot on.

Tracking for Frozen was also $100-130m so it hit the high end.

 

Though when dealing with $200m openers - being off 5% is $10m in either direction. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1651

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1681

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8419	74	22870	36.81%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1664

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1692

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8484	65	22870	37.10%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 20.59M

Final Maleficent count comp: 24.06M

Final IT 2 count comp: 22.94M

Final Hobbs count comp: 23.98M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 24.47M

Final Lion King count comp: 25.72M

 

Average: 23.63M

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

did we get Cats tracking?

This is all we got:

 

Quote

While “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” will easily crush box office competition, it arrives against what could be a cinematic spectacle in its own right: Universal’s “Cats.” The musical, based on Andrew Lloyd Webber’s long-running Broadway show, has received polarizing reactions (to be kind) to the trailer’s confusing blend of CGI and “digital fur technology.” How the internet’s levels of intrigue translates into commercial appeal remains to be seen.

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-opening-weekend-early-tracking-1203417884/

 

So basically, they have no idea how it'll perform. Reviews are gonna really make or break this one.

[RockyMountain]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This is all we got:

 

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-opening-weekend-early-tracking-1203417884/

 

So basically, they have no idea how it'll perform. Reviews are gonna really make or break this one.

Yep. Reviews will probably increase or decrease the OW total by about 20m or so. A lot of people don't give two cents rather or not Luke Skywalker was portrayed the way they wanted to see him be portrayed. They just want an entertaining movie to watch. And reviews will indicate to them how good the movie is viewed as being.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Yep. Reviews will probably increase or decrease the OW total by about 20m or so. A lot of people don't give two cents rather or not Luke Skywalker was portrayed the way they wanted to see him be portrayed. They just want an entertaining movie to watch. And reviews will indicate to them how good the movie is viewed as being.

I'm talking about Cats  (a movie that, if received disastrously like most suspect it will be, could be a true bomb for the ages).

[RockyMountain]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm talking about Cats  (a movie that, if received disastrously like most suspect it will be, could be a true bomb for the ages).

Lol, good deal. Should have looked at both comments I guess eh.

Edited November 28, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

More to the point, as has been noted more than once on this thread over the years, tracking models break down at this range so I ain't taking 200 as an upper limit.  Not yet at least.

Tracking can move a lot over 4 weeks for any number of reasons, but FWIW I dunno if they really break down in the high 100s range anymore. Maybe partially, but 230+ is where things still seem very wobbly to me.

[RockyMountain]

6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Tracking can move a lot over 4 weeks for any number of reasons, but FWIW I dunno if they really break down in the high 100s range anymore. Maybe partially, but 230+ is where things still seem very wobbly to me.

I don't know. I think anytime you get a movie that is thought to be in the 200m range you won't get a real firm idea of how good it's numbers will be until reviews come out. Because when you get that many people coming to the theater in one weekend to see a single movie you are going to get a lot of casual viewers who wouldn't go see it otherwise if they saw the reviews weren't great.

Edited November 28, 2019 by RockyMountain

[JB33]

I'll admit I'm getting a little concerned about TRoS. Trying to take your guys' advice though and just wait for reviews and such.

[RockyMountain]

12 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I'll admit I'm getting a little concerned about TRoS. Trying to take your guys' advice though and just wait for reviews and such.

Oh I wouldn't be too concerned about it. Even on the articles where they report the tracking they say that it isn't that much different from where TFA and TLJ were at a month out in advance. They also say that Disney is trying to manage expectations which basically means they are only going to give predictions that they know for certain it will likely reach.

 

Maybe there isn't quite as much hype as there was several years ago but that can largely be attributed to there now being about five Star Wars movies in as many years. The only real difference between then and now is that now we have people trying to earn a buck by making videos for all the people that are upset with Star Wars. We didn't have that back in 2015 or 2016. Closest thing we had to that in 2015 were just the people who were upset that the EU was decanonized and were raiding Del Rey's pages.

 

And also even with all that we are still talking about a movie that is projected to make around 200m in one weekend (something less than ten movies have done in the history of cinema).

Edited November 28, 2019 by RockyMountain

[John Marston]

30 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I'll admit I'm getting a little concerned about TRoS. Trying to take your guys' advice though and just wait for reviews and such.

Reviews won’t matter much. Especially since even Solo got good reviews