The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Do you recall (or have  a picture that would know for sure) about what % of TLJ was for OW? If TLJ was like 92% for OW and TROS 84%, that’s still a difference with some pretty big implications.

I'd have to double check, but I think the only thing I ever got with breakdown of sales by day was for BP.  They gave us all kinds of info for that one.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

I'd have to double check, but I think the only thing I ever got with breakdown of sales by day was for BP.  They gave us all kinds of info for that one.

I remember the BP breakdown well. First BOT posts I ever saw  

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Yeah I was going to post this before. 

 

So from MTC2 I have day by day comps with The Lion King. Currently TROS daily pace is about on par with that film, so if it has the same jumps for Thursday it should end up at 39-40 million, with 36 million in Friday presales (according to Charlie that will be about 51-52 million Friday based on previous SW films). So 40-51-56-50 will be about 197 million if it can hit that pace. That, imo, would be a pretty strong start.

 

Of course TLK had a very strong final week, so it's not exactly easy for TROS to hit those numbers. To maintain this pace it needs to finish today at 270k tickets at MTC2 for previews and 280k for OD. Not easy but not impossible if shows start to boost a bit (TROS has a pretty low showcount relative to sales rn). 

I think real acceleration will start tomorrow once next burst of shows are added. Dont forget this movie is already almost full in all prime time and even later shows. What is available are shitty seats and crazy late shows. So it does not matter what happens today but tomorrow onwards the pace would be much higher.

[charlie Jatinder]

19 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I remember the BP breakdown well. First BOT posts I ever saw  

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Fun starts on this page: 

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think real acceleration will start tomorrow once next burst of shows are added. Dont forget this movie is already almost full in all prime time and even later shows. What is available are shitty seats and crazy late shows. So it does not matter what happens today but tomorrow onwards the pace would be much higher.

That is fair. But if bump is lower today then that's more ground to cover on the next three days.

[charlie Jatinder]

So My Projection would be

Thursday: $40-42mn

Friday: $51-52mn

Saturday: $55-56mn

Sunday: $46-47mn

 

Total: $192-197mn

[Eric is Anxious]

Black Panther's run up until release is still one of my all-time favorites. Obviously TFA and Endgame were great, but it was obvious both were going to be huge. With Black Panther, most people thought 300M would be considered impressive (it still would have been), but after the teaser came out and the marketing kept ramping up, it was getting bigger and bigger. People were going "over Civil War!" or "over 500M", and "Over Infinity War" and when the presales ramped up and ticket sales were through the roof, and every auditorium was packed, it was absolutely mind-boggling for something that didn't have the same hooks or build-up as other 200M openers

[charlie Jatinder]

With Cineworld buying Cineplex, it will be biggest chain/cinema owners in North America.

They currently own Regal, which have 570+ locs coupled with 165 locs in Canada of Cineplex, beating 650+ of AMC. Regal + Cineplex has 24.3% share of NA which will beat AMC 23.6%.

[pepsa]

6 minutes ago, Eric loves Rey said:

Black Panther's run up until release is still one of my all-time favorites. Obviously TFA and Endgame were great, but it was obvious both were going to be huge. With Black Panther, most people thought 300M would be considered impressive (it still would have been), but after the teaser came out and the marketing kept ramping up, it was getting bigger and bigger. People were going "over Civil War!" or "over 500M", and "Over Infinity War" and when the presales ramped up and ticket sales were through the roof, and every auditorium was packed, it was absolutely mind-boggling for something that didn't have the same hooks or build-up as other 200M openers

This is so true and those legs after the OW were insane. That was one crazy run, I stayed so long in the top 10 movies DOM (I know the competions wasn't super fierce in april etc but still so damm impresive).

I would say that EG was also crazy specialy because of all the talk about daily ceiling on possible boxoffice and EG signle handedly stopped that stupid shit from popping up everywhere.

 

[Joyous Legion]

Hahaha, the 70M single day ceiling. Boy, those were the days 😂

[Porthos]

Guess we're gonna need to figure out how to build a scraper for MTC3 now. 

 

(not it!)

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Guess we're gonna need to figure out how to build a scraper for MTC3 now. 

 

(not it!)

That will be awesome. Roughly 70-75% of pre-sales gross. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Guess we're gonna need to figure out how to build a scraper for MTC3 now. 

 

(not it!)

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

I'm currently betting on 190 OW, hoping TROS can crack 200 though

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

With Cineworld buying Cineplex, it will be biggest chain/cinema owners in North America.

They currently own Regal, which have 570+ locs coupled with 165 locs in Canada of Cineplex, beating 650+ of AMC. Regal + Cineplex has 24.3% share of NA which will beat AMC 23.6%.

What? This is news to me. Holy id better look this up. Thats interesting.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Tinalera

[Lordmandeep]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

With Cineworld buying Cineplex, it will be biggest chain/cinema owners in North America.

They currently own Regal, which have 570+ locs coupled with 165 locs in Canada of Cineplex, beating 650+ of AMC. Regal + Cineplex has 24.3% share of NA which will beat AMC 23.6%.

 

 

Cineplex also has like a 80% marketshare in Canada and almost 100% in certain parts of the country. 

[Tinalera]

my first film was star wars original at single screen odeon in newmarket.  watched the film factories, the famous players the cineplexes and watched cineplex merge them all and now Cinemark is going to buy the whole thing.it wax a canadian thing. Changeing times dont know how i feel right now...feels weird

Edited December 16, 2019 by Tinalera

[JB33]

11 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

my first film was star wars original at single screen odeon in newmarket.  watched the film factories, the famous players the cineplexes and watched cineplex merge them all and now Cinemark is going to buy the whole thing.it wax a canadian thing. Changeing times dont know how i feel right now...feels weird

Yeah this is kind of how I feel. I know change is often a good thing, but I see it as more of a disruption of what I've been doing my whole life.

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Guess we're gonna need to figure out how to build a scraper for MTC3 now. 

 

(not it!)

I’ll look into it.