The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

25m

@Jedi Jat off by only 2%, nice. 

 

Edit: Actually if this data is from the morning then it's pretty much an exact match with the spreadsheet.

Edited December 16, 2019 by Menor

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

@Jedi Jat off by only 2%, nice. 

 

Edit: Actually if this data is from the morning then it's pretty much an exact match with the spreadsheet.

Yup, you guys have done a great job!  The only thing I don't know about is if this number included the fan events/double features and what not.  

 

Based on a picture I have for TLJ, on the Monday before release, TLJ was at about 25.5m with everything.  I didn't get a picture this time, so this is all we have to go on.  

 

Either way, if it's everything - then it's REAL close to TLJ.  If it's not everything, then it's likely that it's actually slightly higher than TLJ.

 

 

[Eric the IF]

@Deep Wang

 

never mind lol you answered my question

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Yup, you guys have done a great job!  The only thing I don't know about is if this number included the fan events/double features and what not.  

 

Based on a picture I have for TLJ, on the Monday before release, TLJ was at about 25.5m with everything.  I didn't get a picture this time, so this is all we have to go on.  

 

Either way, if it's everything - then it's REAL close to TLJ.  If it's not everything, then it's likely that it's actually slightly higher than TLJ.

 

 

That's definitely a good sign. The only thing I'm worried about is that due to Christmas on the Wednesday a much bigger fraction of those sales are gonna be for weekdays than they would be for TLJ, so matching TLJ in overall presales might still leave it significantly behind in FSS. 

[RockyMountain]

Well that should put to rest any notion that the fans are losing interest in Star Wars.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Well that should put to rest any notion that the fans are losing interest in Star Wars.

????   
 

It’a pretty much exactly what we thought before. With 2 more years of reserved seating it’s still got me thinking about 39->190, but see how the next 3 days develop etc.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

????   
 

It’a pretty much exactly what we thought before. With 2 more years of reserved seating it’s still got me thinking about 39->190, but see how the next 3 days develop etc.

Yeah I was going to post this before. 

 

So from MTC2 I have day by day comps with The Lion King. Currently TROS daily pace is about on par with that film, so if it has the same jumps for Thursday it should end up at 39-40 million, with 36 million in Friday presales (according to Charlie that will be about 51-52 million Friday based on previous SW films). So 40-51-56-50 will be about 197 million if it can hit that pace. That, imo, would be a pretty strong start.

 

Of course TLK had a very strong final week, so it's not exactly easy for TROS to hit those numbers. To maintain this pace it needs to finish today at 270k tickets at MTC2 for previews and 280k for OD. Not easy but not impossible if shows start to boost a bit (TROS has a pretty low showcount relative to sales rn). 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Menor

[RockyMountain]

We'll see. I think the vast majority of people who buy tickets far in advance are getting them for OW (and especially for Thursday). So if the numbers are right along what TLJ was getting presales should be in the 43-48 range 

Edited December 16, 2019 by RockyMountain

[charlie Jatinder]

46 minutes ago, Menor said:

@Jedi Jat off by only 2%, nice. 

 

Edit: Actually if this data is from the morning then it's pretty much an exact match with the spreadsheet.

That's relief. I will take +/-5% as we are dealing with lot of variables.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

We'll see. I think the vast majority of people who buy tickets far in advance are getting them for OW (and especially for Thursday). So if the numbers are right along what TLJ was getting presales should be in the 43-48 range 

Well we have data showing that there are big presales for the weekdays. Even for Monday and Tuesday numbers are quite strong, then add in Christmas which should be one of the biggest days of ps. 

[Inceptionzq]

41 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Based on a picture I have for TLJ, on the Monday before release, TLJ was at about 25.5m with everything.

That means TRoS is outpacing TLJ by a pretty wide margin in MTC 1. According to Jat, T-8 was 23M for TLJ and TRoS 20.84M. 2.5M vs 4.16M gains since then.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

That means TRoS is outpacing TLJ by a pretty wide margin in MTC 1. According to Jat, T-8 was 23M for TLJ and TRoS 20.84M. 2.5M vs 4.16M gains since then.

Well, not quite that extreme. I think TLJ actuals for T-8 was 22.8 million and with TROS being off by ~0.5 million, it's more like 3.66m for TROS and 2.7m for TLJ. But yes, it's definitely outpacing TLJ. 

[RockyMountain]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Well we have data showing that there are big presales for the weekdays. Even for Monday and Tuesday numbers are quite strong, then add in Christmas which should be one of the biggest days of ps. 

Are the pesales for Monday and Tuesday better than what TLJ had for its Monday and Tuesday?

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Are the pesales for Monday and Tuesday better than what TLJ had for its Monday and Tuesday?

We don't have data for that, but I'd be shocked if the presales for the first set of weekdays wasn't way higher. TLJ didn't have any holiday in its first week. 

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Well we have data showing that there are big presales for the weekdays. Even for Monday and Tuesday numbers are quite strong, then add in Christmas which should be one of the biggest days of ps. 

This is correct.  

 

The largest majority of tickets sold is still Thursday/OW, but there will be enough tickets sold for the holidays to skew the total number higher.  If this had 25m and was releasing at any other time of the year, then it would probably be like 95-97% sold for the OW.  Right now, it's probably more like 80-85% sold for OW and the rest spread out over the next 10 days.  

[TwoMisfits]

I'm actually wondering how huge the presales to walkups ratio might be for TRoS...I think it will be the highest for any movie ever for OW, but I don't know how big that could be...

 

I mean, is Solo the biggest presale to walkup ratio (thus why it cratered at open)?  Or is it something this year in the great ramp up of presale importance for many movies?

 

Edited December 16, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[narniadis]

9 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Are the pesales for Monday and Tuesday better than what TLJ had for its Monday and Tuesday?

As nice as I can be I am telling you that you need to stop and breathe. Everyone that is old guard has ad nauseam tried to tell some of yall that calendar differences make a measurable difference. We do not have a measuring stick that can point blank tell you what that is, but based off TFA alone we know that Christmas day presales are higher than any other non-weekend day due to the close proximity. Something that Jedi couldn't take advantage of due to opening a week earlier.

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

This is correct.  

 

The largest majority of tickets sold is still Thursday/OW, but there will be enough tickets sold for the holidays to skew the total number higher.  If this had 25m and was releasing at any other time of the year, then it would probably be like 95-97% sold for the OW.  Right now, it's probably more like 80-85% sold for OW and the rest spread out over the next 10 days.  

Do you recall (or have  a picture that would know for sure) about what % of TLJ was for OW? If TLJ was like 92% for OW and TROS 84%, that’s still a difference with some pretty big implications.

[Tinalera]

Imo another aspect is the idea his is the "last"( as far as we know) skywalker saga film. How many will see it for that part of things

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

25m

Cats proving the haters wrong, big time.