The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

May be $1.5M THU previews for Cruella. Something like $20-22M 4 days weekend I suppose.

I really don’t see the 4-day IM going under 18x (and even that would be pretty low).   
 

What would we be looking at to go from 1,5 to 21.5?
1.5  

5

6.25

5

3.75

 

or so?  Small side Disney LA reimaginings tend to have much better prev:true fri than that.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, WandaLegion said:

or so?  Small side Disney LA reimaginings tend to have much better prev:true fri than that.

 

 

Is Cruella really gonna be Kids/Family movie? I think its gonna be more like Coast movie. Can be wrong, just don't feel like it.

[charlie Jatinder]

Cruella budget is $200M?

 

WTF. WHY.

Edited May 27, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Cruella budget is $200M.

 

WTF. WHY.

I saw that earlier, and if you read the Wikipedia source, it reads a bit like a joke to me because it's MZS talking about all the licensed songs in the movie.

 

And unless it comes from a trade (rogerebert.com isn't one), even you have to admit that sounds ridiculous, especially looking at the movie. Use your head mah boi.

[xiazhi]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Cruella budget is $200M.

 

WTF. WHY.

Only believe the budge report from the four big trades.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Eric De Vil said:

I saw that earlier, and if you read the Wikipedia source, it reads a bit like a joke to me because it's MZS talking about all the licensed songs in the movie.

 

And unless it comes from a trade (rogerebert.com isn't one), even you have to admit that sounds ridiculous, especially looking at the movie. Use your head mah boi.

Yes but then Disney made Dumbo in some $150M, no? I don't really taking this off from Wiki but this one,
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-9580323/Shes-Vil-woman-Disney-gambling-140m-101-Dalmatians-prequel-Cruella.html

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Cruella budget is $200M.

 

WTF. WHY.

And you believe? The critic is just guessing based on others LA Disney movies.

 

Don't really know why but Disney aren't revealing budgets for more than a year now, but just seeing everything about this movie, it doesn't cost more than $ 100M, and even that seems a bit much.

 

Emma Stone is the only star in the movie (and she's not that big), doesn't rely on CGI, doesn't have crazy action sequences, this seems like a $ 80-100M budget movie more in line with Pete's Dragon and Christopher Robin.

 

 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/26/2021 at 12:10 AM, Eric De Vil said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	306	2566	25368	10.12%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 109

Total Seats Added Today: 7,277

Total Seats Sold Today: 872

 

Comp

0.981x of Godzilla vs. Kong Sunday Before Release (9.52M)

1.395x of Mortal Kombat Tuesday Before Release (12.68M)

 

Bah gawd. That's all I gotta say

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	334	3522	26635	13.22%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 28

Total Seats Added Today: 1,267

Total Seats Sold Today: 956

 

Comp

1.211x of Godzilla vs. Kong Monday Before Release (11.75M)

1.500x of Mortal Kombat Wednesday Before Release (13.63M)

 

Bah gawd once again

[Eric Prime]

On 5/26/2021 at 12:21 AM, Eric De Vil said:

 

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	211	542	17476	3.10%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 70

Total Seats Added Today: 4,800

Total Sellouts Removed Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 37

 

Comp

1.667x of Raya T-2 Before Release (4.34M)

 

Yeah, so one of the sellouts just...disappeared. This has happened a couple times since I restarted reporting. Raya even went through it the last day of reporting. I don't know if it's a glitch or a confusion with private showings or something, but it's always a frustrating thing whenever this stuff happens. Either way, even when you ignore the sellout, there was still only 117 tickets sold today. Pretty bad today if you ask me, but there's still two more days of ticket selling to come, so who knows?

Cruella Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting (Thu+Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	221	798	17953	4.44%

Total Shows Added Today: 10

Total Seats Added Today: 477

Total Seats Sold Today: 256

 

Comp

1.851x of Raya T-1 Before Release (4.82M)

 

This was pretty good stuff too, though it still has a bit of a ways to go. We'll see how tomorrow shapes up.

[Borobudur]

 

 

For those interested joining , will postpone the deadline this club by another 4 hours to May 28 , 12 AM EST, to accommodate west coast's posters, who may have thought after their preview screening. 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/26/2021 at 12:24 AM, Eric De Vil said:

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	38	219	3837	5.71%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Or at least, I hope these are genuine sellouts. WHO KNOWS

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	38	271	3837	7.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

I screwed up the sellout count yesterday. Sorry! Fixed accordingly.

[Porthos]

On 5/25/2021 at 11:10 PM, Porthos said:

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	26	118	2479	4349	1870	43.00%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	15
Total Showings Added Today	20*
Total Seats Added Today	478
Total Seats Sold Today	359

*NOTE: Includes two non-reserved seating showings from the local drive-in

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	46.34		745	4035		49/205	4035/7536	53.55%		4.45m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

 

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	22	125	2643	5036	2393	47.52%

 

Total Net Sellouts Removed Today	4*
Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	687*
Total Seats Sold Today	523

*NOTE: One theater expanded to a 50% cap in seating, resulting in the removal of seven sellouts, but the addition of 306 seats.

SECOND NOTE:  The Regal theater which yanked its Thr (and OW) screenings last week, re-added them tonight, with all previously sold seats still marked as sold.  That bumped up "today's" seat sold total by 25 seats.

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
GvK	43.92		1414	5449		90/214	2194/7643	71.29%		4.22m

 

===

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)

8

 

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Regal ($199)	1
Adjusted Seats	22

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25 - rounded down], 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25 - rounded down], and 22 seats for Regal [$199/$9.25 - rounded up]

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism for Cinemark and Cinema West in this post.  However, it appears that we can track Regal PWPs to the movie purchased, as mentioned in this later post.

 

SECOND NOTE:  Since A Quiet Place Part II and Cruella are both debuting on the same day and both have PWPs available for purchase, I am not approximating the tickets sold at Cinemark and Cinema West locations for either movie on this track.  For the record, however, 8 PWP showings were purchased before tickets for Cruella  went on sale, for an approximation of 128 tickets.

Edited October 12, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Reminder that GvK did nutso business locally on T-1 and didn't replicate it on actual OD.  Mostly coz it couldn't (just plum ran out of seats locally, really).

 

AQP II didn't quite match the also-nutso pace of It 2, so that comp is coming down.  At T-1, It 2 locally sold 1,001 tickets while on an adjusted basis, AQP II sold 486.  Which gives a comp of 2291/3820 (59.97%) which in turn translates to  6.30m.  Once again, taking off 10% or so for lack of Canada now gives a comp of 5.67m, which is down quite a bit from yesterday, but probably tracking more in the correct direction.

 

====

 

PROGRAMMING NOTE.

 

I usually post a mid-day update around noon to 1pm Pacific on day of release, but I'll be having lunch with family that I have literally not seen in over a year at that time, so the mid-date update ain't gonna happen.  Will do the Final Update as normally scheduled though.

Edited May 27, 2021 by Porthos

[filmlover]

Disney spent $95-100M making Cinderella '15 and that certainly required a lot more effects work than something like Cruella does. There's zero percent chance they spent anywhere even close to $200M making it.

[WrathOfHan]

Update for Tallahassee. AQP added two earlier shows while cancelling two later ones:

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

5:00: 14/107 (-1)

5:15: 5/67 (+5)

5:30 IMAX: 9/372 (+6)

5:45: 0/67 (-)

6:00: 2/77 (-)

6:15: 1/40 

6:30: 7/107 (+5)

6:45: 0/40

7:00 Dolby: 79/236 (+16)

7:15: 0/70 (-)

7:30: 7/77 (+7)

8:00: 23/107 (+1)

8:15: 2/67 (+2)

8:30: 0/70

8:45: 11/67 (+5)

9:00 IMAX: 17/372 (+1)

9:30: 0/107 (-)

10:00 Dolby: 8/236 (+6)

Total: 185/2,109 (+54/-106) (41% increase)

 

Cruella:

6:00: 10/107 (+2)

6:45: 2/54 (+2)

7:15: 7/107 (+3)

7:45: 0/50 (-)

9:15: 11/107 (+1)

Total: 30/425 (+8) (36% increase)

 

Using Spiral as a comparison, AQP is running 6.85x ahead of where it was the night before previews. Since Lionsgate never released a preview gross, I'll assume it was 700k given Saturday's gross, which would mean 4.8M in this comparison. If we want to use Cruella with this, that would be 780k

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Update for Tallahassee. AQP added two earlier shows while cancelling two later ones:

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

5:00: 14/107 (-1)

5:15: 5/67 (+5)

5:30 IMAX: 9/372 (+6)

5:45: 0/67 (-)

6:00: 2/77 (-)

6:15: 1/40 

6:30: 7/107 (+5)

6:45: 0/40

7:00 Dolby: 79/236 (+16)

7:15: 0/70 (-)

7:30: 7/77 (+7)

8:00: 23/107 (+1)

8:15: 2/67 (+2)

8:30: 0/70

8:45: 11/67 (+5)

9:00 IMAX: 17/372 (+1)

9:30: 0/107 (-)

10:00 Dolby: 8/236 (+6)

Total: 185/2,109 (+54/-106) (41% increase)

 

Cruella:

6:00: 10/107 (+2)

6:45: 2/54 (+2)

7:15: 7/107 (+3)

7:45: 0/50 (-)

9:15: 11/107 (+1)

Total: 30/425 (+8) (36% increase)

 

Using Spiral as a comparison, AQP is running 6.85x ahead of where it was the night before previews. Since Lionsgate never released a preview gross, I'll assume it was 700k given Saturday's gross, which would mean 4.8M in this comparison. If we want to use Cruella with this, that would be 780k

I think Deadline have Spiral's preview at 750k. 

[titanic2187]

AQP2 at 3.726 theaters this week

Edited May 27, 2021 by titanic2187

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Disney spent $95-100M making Cinderella '15 and that certainly required a lot more effects work than something like Cruella does. There's zero percent chance they spent anywhere even close to $200M making it.

 

Never underestimate how Disney can somehow spend more money on movies than seems possible.  It could be that Covid costs of delay are wrapped into the budget or some other "unseen on screens" costs...

 

Now that I'm back home, I need to see how tonight's movies are booked!  

[WrathOfHan]

Another update; may or may not do one more since I'm seeing both movies tonight:

 

A Quiet Place Part II:

5:00: 15/107 (+1)

5:15: 5/67 (-)

5:30 IMAX: 13/372 (+4)

5:45: 0/67 (-)

6:00: 4/77 (+2)

6:15: 1/40 (-)

6:30: 6/107 (-1)

6:45: 0/40 (-)

7:00 Dolby: 83/236 (+4)

7:15: 0/70 (-)

7:30: 7/77 (-)

8:00: 24/107 (+1)

8:15: 2/67 (-)

8:45: 8/67 (-3)

9:00 IMAX: 17/372 (-)

10:00 Dolby: 12/236 (+4)

Total: 197/2,109 (+12) (6% increase)

 

Cruella:

6:00: 10/107 (-)

6:45: 2/54 (-)

7:15: 7/107 (-)

7:45: 0/50 (-)

9:15: 13/107 (+2)

Total: 32/425 (+2)

 

The late Dolby show for AQP is probably the only showing that will see a significant uptick in sales throughout the rest of the day. I'm not expecting AQP's first Dolby to get more movement since the only seats left are in the first 3 rows or stray seats at the end of rows. As I said earlier, Spiral's comparison should be O/U 5M for previews.

 

Cruella's outlook still looks dismal.

[Krissykins]

Sounds like good news for A Quiet Place 2 if previews are $3-4m tomorrow.