The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Widow Friday (PS END)

MTC1  - 225260/1242734 2735507.00 7183 shows(433 Theatres)

MTC2 -  165691/1022525 1855471.55 7462 shows(308 Theatres)

Black Widow Saturday

MTC1 - 179020/1281795 1904480.00 7399 shows

MTC2 - 131355/1045393 1430950.81 7582 shows

 

it added about 40K since morning at MTC1 and 32K at MTC2. PS end will be around 5% higher. I think I am feeling good about a small drop tomorrow as I predicted yesterday. Even with better walk ups, late shows tend to be weaker compared to friday plus average ticket price will be lower(greater domination of morning shows). 

Edited July 10, 2021 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

BW at MTC1 about 20% higher than F9. MTC2 is lower(about low teens). Thinking Friday minus previews around 27m. IMO Deadline early estimate very accurate.

 

Just for future reference I am posting numbers. I had to step out yesterday and did not have the time. 

 

BW Friday Final

MTC1 - 442690/1236881 5059891.00 7297 shows

MTC2 - 350320/1051542 3801320.78 7641 shows

Edited July 10, 2021 by keysersoze123

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

A- cinemascore for Black Widow

[Eric Prime]

On 7/8/2021 at 10:56 PM, Eric Belov said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	501	7824	6.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 115

 

Comp

0.386x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Wed T-8 Before Release (3.75M)

3.093x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-8 Before Release (23.84M)

0.500x of F9's Thu T-8 Before Release (3.55M)

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	646	7824	8.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 145

 

Comp

0.452x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Wed T-7 Before Release (4.39M)

3.436x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-7 Before Release (26.48M)

0.612x of F9's Thu T-7 Before Release (4.35M)

[Eric Prime]

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	34	4808	0.71%

 

Comp

0.120x of Mortal Kombat's Fi T-13 Before Release (1.09M)

0.085x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-13 Before Release (1.64M)

0.507x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-13 Before Release (3.91M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Something must be off with my MTC2 numbers. From early afternoon it was looking way higher. Won't post those for future films until I figure it out.

[katnisscinnaplex]

17 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	City	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Escape Room 2	T-6	Jacksonville	5	16	2,528	7	2	0.28%
		Phoenix	5	13	1,333	9	3	0.68%
		Raleigh	7	22	2,106	13	5	0.62%
Escape Room 2 Total			17	51	5,967	29	10	0.49%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-7	Jacksonville	5	30	4,240	96	26	2.26%
		Phoenix	5	17	2,120	101	29	4.76%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,837	141	14	3.67%
Space Jam Total			17	77	10,197	338	69	3.31%

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Escape Room 2	T-5	Jacksonville	5	16	2,528	8	1	0.32%
		Phoenix	5	13	1,333	9	0	0.68%
		Raleigh	7	22	2,106	17	4	0.81%
Escape Room 2 Total			17	51	5,967	34	5	0.57%
Old	T-12	Jacksonville	2	4	836	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	1	1	74	0	0	0.00%
Old Total			3	5	910	0	0	0.00%
Snake Eyes	T-12	Jacksonville	5	16	3,412	4	4	0.12%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,639	6	6	0.37%
		Raleigh	4	10	1,228	10	10	0.81%
Snake Eyes Total			14	34	6,279	20	20	0.32%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-6	Jacksonville	5	30	4,240	108	12	2.55%
		Phoenix	5	17	2,120	107	6	5.05%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,837	165	24	4.30%
Space Jam (Friday) Total			17	77	10,197	380	42	3.73%
UFC 264	T-0	Jacksonville	2	2	145	50	50	34.48%
		Phoenix	3	4	343	205	205	59.77%
		Raleigh	2	3	224	74	74	33.04%
UFC 264 Total			7	9	712	329	329	46.21%

 

Not really much to see here.  I added the UFC fight for tonight just for fun - looks like it's selling pretty well at 46% of total seats sold (about 50% of available after removing the distanced seats).  If I have time, I might check back tonight before the fight to see if these are selling out.  Not really enough capacity in theaters to do much but add in those ppv (record breaking?) sales and maybe it makes a dent. 

 

I added Snake Eyes and Old, more so to get a head start on recording showtimes and seating charts.  Escape Room still ahead of Forever Purge, but that doubled its total sales on T-4 (25 to 51).  We'll see if ER2 can replicate that.

 

I saw the note about the decision to add Thursday shows to Suicide Squad - looks like there are already some shows popping up.  Not sure when that will go on sale though. 

 

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

[john2000]

any update for saturday ?

[keysersoze123]

On 7/9/2021 at 8:33 AM, keysersoze123 said:

I went midway in my range. It finished close to lower end. Still this is a fantastic number considering the hybrid model.

 

Morning Update

MTC1 - 250806/1247497 3002051.00 7259 shows

MTC2 - 183844/1030320 2049328.66 7554 shows

 

Let us see how the day goes. 

Morning Update Sat

MTC1 - 248052/1260922 2492308.00 7346 shows

MTC2 - 190796/1059478 2017533.02 7708 shows

 

This is about 3 hours later than yesterday and so in gross its about 20% down at MTC1 and about 10% down in MTC2. It will make up some of the deficit but I am expecting a drop today. Thinking about 25m sat for now. Let us see how the day goes. 

Edited July 10, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Madhuvan]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Morning Update Sat

MTC1 - 248052/1260922 2492308.00 7346 shows

MTC2 - 190796/1059478 2017533.02 7708 shows

 

This is about 3 hours later than yesterday and so in gross its about 20% down at MTC1 and about 10% down in MTC2. It will make up some of the deficit but I am expecting a drop today. Thinking about 25m sat for now. Let us see how the day goes. 

OMFG , Disney messed up everything. 

[Madhuvan]

nvm

Edited July 10, 2021 by Madhuvan
nvm

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Morning Update Sat

MTC1 - 248052/1260922 2492308.00 7346 shows

MTC2 - 190796/1059478 2017533.02 7708 shows

 

This is about 3 hours later than yesterday and so in gross its about 20% down at MTC1 and about 10% down in MTC2. It will make up some of the deficit but I am expecting a drop today. Thinking about 25m sat for now. Let us see how the day goes. 

MTC1 is at 310K and MTC2 is at 239.3K. Ticket prices are lower but walkups look good to me. Bumping up saturday to 26m. 

[Porthos]

Looking ahead a bit, what's the general expectations for Jungle Cruise?  I personally don't like tracking unless I can reasonably expect either 7m in previews or a 70m OW.  But with the 'rona still taking a bite out of the market, I might have to reassess my priors.   Maybe 5.5/55m (if we think we currently have 80% of the market). Maybe 6/60 once Ontario partially re-opens (which would be 85%)?

 

Mind, I don't mind sitting a few out.    Am planning on tracking The Suicide Squad regardless, ftr.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 is at 310K and MTC2 is at 239.3K. Ticket prices are lower but walkups look good to me. Bumping up saturday to 26m. 

 

STAND DOWN, @Lokis Legion, I REPEAT, STAND DOWN. 👍

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Looking ahead a bit, what's the general expectations for Jungle Cruise?  I personally don't like tracking unless I can reasonably expect either 7m in previews or a 70m OW.  But with the 'rona still taking a bite out of the market, I might have to reassess my priors.   Maybe 5.5/55m (if we think we currently have 80% of the market). Maybe 6/60 once Ontario partially re-opens (which would be 85%)?

 

Mind, I don't mind sitting a few out.    Am planning on tracking The Suicide Squad regardless, ftr.

 

Also, if anyone suggests I should lower my standards to expectations of 5m previews/50m OW for at least a little while:

 

 

(no promises, in other words )

[Eric Prime]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Looking ahead a bit, what's the general expectations for Jungle Cruise?  I personally don't like tracking unless I can reasonably expect either 7m in previews or a 70m OW.  But with the 'rona still taking a bite out of the market, I might have to reassess my priors.   Maybe 5.5/55m (if we think we currently have 80% of the market). Maybe 6/60 once Ontario partially re-opens (which would be 85%)?

 

Mind, I don't mind sitting a few out.    Am planning on tracking The Suicide Squad regardless, ftr.

Ehh, I'm thinking like 25M? Even before the pandemic it never really felt like anybody was talking about it much and discussion in general seems really quiet about the movie. By comparison, it felt like way more people were buzzing and talking about Cruella at this point in time, albeit both positively and negatively. Of course, the last Jumanji movie kinda had those vibes going into that films' release IMO, so maybe this is the same thing? Either way, I don't think you're missing a thing by skipping it.

 

I'm still planning to track it because I'm a glutton for numbers.

[lorddemaxus]

Kinda impressive the last Jungle Cruise trailer only has 1.9 million views. The character trailer numbers also look kinda awful. Think this could go below 20 mil.

Edited July 10, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Menor the Destroyer]

Yeah trailer views are very low. Google Trends hard to find good recent comps but eyeballing it seems to be on par with a Skyscraper or Rampage (but trailer likes seem worse) so I don't think this is going 50 million at all.

[Cooper Legion]

30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Looking ahead a bit, what's the general expectations for Jungle Cruise? I personally don't like tracking unless I can reasonably expect either 7m in previews or a 70m OW. But with the 'rona still taking a bite out of the market, I might have to reassess my priors. Maybe 5.5/55m (if we think we currently have 80% of the market). Maybe 6/60 once Ontario partially re-opens (which would be 85%)?

 

Mind, I don't mind sitting a few out. Am planning on tracking The Suicide Squad regardless, ftr.

I agree with most responses -- expecting it to miss even a lowered 5/50M bar. But BOP should have an updated long-range which includes it later this week

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

 But BOP should have an updated long-range which includes it later this week

 

Ultimately, I usually use BOP as my guideline (and then chew him out when he fails me ), but also wanted to get some sense of things in case tickets drop on Monday ahead of BOP's long range forecast.