The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Space Jam Friday:

 

12:15: 0/107

3:15: 5/107

6:15: 22/107

9:15: 0/107

Total: 27/428

 

Comps: 

 

20% of F9 Previews three days out (1.4M)

44% of ITH Friday three days out (2.2M)

129% of Cruella Previews two days out (1.8M)

245% of Boss Baby 2 Previews two days out (3.2M)

 

Tracking ahead of Cruella and Boss Baby previews is a good sign for now. I imagine it'll grab some Dolby shows earlier in the day from Widow once full showtimes are up. 

 

Thursday Previews:

 

Escape Room:

3:00: 0/77

5:30: 6/77

8:00: 8/77

Total: 14/231

 

Pig:

5:00: 1/40

7:40: 1/40

Total: 2/80

 

Roadrunner: 2/40

 

Escape Room is running waaaaaay ahead of where Forever Purge was two days out (233%/3M)

[Mojoguy]

Hard to believe Escape is going to be bigger than Forever Purge, since Escape feels so much like an unnecessary sequel.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Mojoguy

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Hard to believe Escape is going to be bigger than Forever Purge, since Escape feels so much like an unnecessary sequel.

Well, vs an unnecessary fifthquel 😛 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

When is Old available? The showtimes are listed here but they're not for sale. Thursday is 710. I  still think it performs strong since M. Night is consistent and it has an appealing premise but you never know

 

Escape Room was a surprise hit so I'm not surprised the sequel is selling well. I admittedly thought it would flop but it's PG-13 and conceptual with an action-packed trailer

 

Snake Eyes presales have been awful so far. I posted recently how Space Jam is behaving oddly with group blocks and ANOTHER group block bought an entire row for the 6pm Friday

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

on second thoughts why were you even questioning considering RTH posted even lower number. If you were asking why I was high again, I did say I was extrapolating with just MTC1 data as I did not track F9 saturday end at MTC2. May be the ratio was even worse plus MTC1 seem to slightly over perform for BW. 

Because MTC 1 was suggesting $21.5M. I thought may be RTH posted in evening but turns out he posted post 12:30 PST, at that point number we see in cS are basically actuals.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI BW is down in low 20's % at this point but I expect overall drop to be worse as evening holds will not be that good. I would go with 17m sunday for now. 

generally MTCs drop more on Sunday than general drop but donno how that changed post pandemic.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

On a serious note, you are saying Disney has never increased its friday/saturday with actuals ? Data so far out are still estimates. 

Because numbers are higher than estimates and Disney estimates are more often on lower side of things than they turn out. At time of estimates are released, the access level I had there are about 100-300 theaters remaining to report depending on release size. Studio estimates for those 100-300. By end of weekend, residual theaters are 50-100, can't get away with inflating too much from those.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Because MTC 1 was suggesting $21.5M. I thought may be RTH posted in evening but turns out he posted post 12:30 PST, at that point number we see in cS are basically actuals.

It was 8% higher than F9 saturday. That is why I went with 24m. But it probably did worse at MTC2 and other chains. I do not have MTC2 finish for F9. 

 

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

generally MTCs drop more on Sunday than general drop but donno how that changed post pandemic.

 

Saturday ratio tend to be the lowest. After that I feel they are all on par. That said big markets are dropping hard. That is why average ticket price is even lower today.  

[keysersoze123]

Since I predicted its dropping bad, it did ok. I think OW staying above 80m. :-)

 

BW Sunday

MTC1 - 325929/1155356 3138609.00 6727 shows

MTC2 - 269266/957029 2723631.50 6806 shows

 

I am not planning on tracking going forward but it will have a normal summer weekday run anyway. Good thing is nothing big is opening rest of the summer. I will take a look at Shang Chi may be if it has a good PS. 

[Eric Duncan]

On 7/10/2021 at 11:26 PM, Eric Belov said:

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	714	7824	9.13%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 68

 

Comp

0.441x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Wed T-6 Before Release (4.28M)

2.125x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-6 Before Release (16.38M)

0.626x of F9's Thu T-6 Before Release (4.44M)

Space Jam: A New Legacy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	868	7824	11.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 154

 

Comp

0.500x of Godzilla vs. Kong's Wed T-5 Before Release (4.85M)

2.452x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-5 Before Release (18.90M)

0.671x of F9's Thu T-5 Before Release (4.76M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 7/10/2021 at 11:34 PM, Eric Belov said:

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	40	4808	0.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.125x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-12 Before Release (1.14M)

0.088x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (1.71M)

0.460x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-12 Before Release (3.54M)

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	48	4808	1.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.106x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-11 Before Release (965K)

0.093x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-11 Before Release (1.79M)

0.449x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-11 Before Release (3.46M)

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Thursday Previews:

 

Escape Room:

3:00: 0/77

5:30: 6/77

8:00: 8/77

Total: 14/231

Escape Room is running waaaaaay ahead of where Forever Purge was two days out (233%/3M)

Glad to hear this  

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Escape Room 2	T-4	Jacksonville	5	16	2,528	10	2	0.40%
		Phoenix	5	13	1,333	12	3	0.90%
		Raleigh	7	22	2,106	24	7	1.14%
Escape Room 2 Total			17	51	5,967	46	12	0.77%
Old	T-11	Jacksonville	2	4	836	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	1	1	74	0	0	0.00%
		Raleigh	1	2	434	0	0	0.00%
Old Total			4	7	1,344	0	0	0.00%
Snake Eyes	T-11	Jacksonville	5	16	3,412	7	3	0.21%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,639	7	1	0.43%
		Raleigh	5	13	1,755	15	5	0.85%
Snake Eyes Total			15	37	6,806	29	9	0.43%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-5	Jacksonville	5	30	4,240	126	18	2.97%
		Phoenix	5	21	2,560	126	19	4.92%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,837	206	41	5.37%
Space Jam (Friday) Total			17	81	10,637	458	78	4.31%

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Escape Room 2	T-3	Jacksonville	5	16	2,528	27	17	1.07%
		Phoenix	5	13	1,333	20	8	1.50%
		Raleigh	7	22	2,106	27	3	1.28%
Escape Room 2 Total			17	51	5,967	74	28	1.24%
Old	T-10	Jacksonville	2	4	836	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	1	1	74	0	0	0.00%
		Raleigh	1	2	434	0	0	0.00%
Old Total			4	7	1,344	0	0	0.00%
Snake Eyes	T-10	Jacksonville	5	16	3,412	11	4	0.32%
		Phoenix	5	8	1,639	9	2	0.55%
		Raleigh	5	13	1,755	16	1	0.91%
Snake Eyes Total			15	37	6,806	36	7	0.53%
Space Jam (Friday)	T-4	Jacksonville	5	30	4,240	162	36	3.82%
		Phoenix	5	21	2,560	170	44	6.64%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,837	297	91	7.74%
Space Jam (Friday) Total			17	81	10,637	629	171	5.91%

 

ER2 jumped back ahead of Forever Purge 74-65 total.  

 

Space Jam has passed my final Thursday run for In The Heights (full day opening) 629-604 and is just above 50% of F9 preview sales at this point 629-1241.  

 

I haven't been tracking Roadrunner but it has 44 sales for Thursday, despite only having 10 showings between the three cities.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

I didn't get a chance to check back on the pre-sales for the fight on Saturday, but hopefully we will get something reported.  Elsewhere it looks like 1.8m PPV sales is the initial estimate (which would be the second most for UFC).  Wonder if we will see a smaller than expected Sat-Sun drop for that crossover audience.

[Eric Duncan]

So I just learned that Escape Room 2's previews are at 3PM...how is that not just a regular Thursday?  

[TwoMisfits]

So, one Cinemark (the one which did not yet book Pig and Anthony Bourdain) has bumped up its Space Jam presales to 2 screens vs the 1 screen overnight.  Still no other changes.

 

But both have responded to the previous weekend without making final sets...

[Cmasterclay]

The numbers in this thread make a mid-30s opening for Space Jam look possible, but I imagine it is selling like 0 seats in hundreds of rural, white theaters throughout America and way overperforming in cities. Still, mid 20s above Cruella looks likely.

 

Escape Room 2 would be the first movie since the pandemic to actually open above my pre-pandemic expectation if it does anything more than 13m OW. That's a milestone!

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Escape Room 2 would be the first movie since the pandemic to actually open above my pre-pandemic expectation if it does anything more than 13m OW. That's a milestone!

Wow, must have been really bullish on Demon Slayer 👀

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The numbers in this thread make a mid-30s opening for Space Jam look possible, but I imagine it is selling like 0 seats in hundreds of rural, white theaters throughout America and way overperforming in cities. Still, mid 20s above Cruella looks likely.

 

Escape Room 2 would be the first movie since the pandemic to actually open above my pre-pandemic expectation if it does anything more than 13m OW. That's a milestone!

 

While I do think it will sell better in the cities, I wouldn't sleep on the rural theaters - Looney Tunes is a draw, separate from Lebron/basketball, and you could have the happy coincidence that one draws one crowd and one draws the other, so the synergy makes the film go higher than a film without one or the other would...I mean, it could do the reverse and keep each crowd away, but I think WB has done a very good job on the marketing for this...

[WrathOfHan]

54 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The numbers in this thread make a mid-30s opening for Space Jam look possible, but I imagine it is selling like 0 seats in hundreds of rural, white theaters throughout America and way overperforming in cities. Still, mid 20s above Cruella looks likely.

 

Escape Room 2 would be the first movie since the pandemic to actually open above my pre-pandemic expectation if it does anything more than 13m OW. That's a milestone!

 

48 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

While I do think it will sell better in the cities, I wouldn't sleep on the rural theaters - Looney Tunes is a draw, separate from Lebron/basketball, and you could have the happy coincidence that one draws one crowd and one draws the other, so the synergy makes the film go higher than a film without one or the other would...I mean, it could do the reverse and keep each crowd away, but I think WB has done a very good job on the marketing for this...

Looking back home where it's heavily white and 60-65% conservative, Space Jam has sold 8 seats for Friday - pretty much the same as ITH this far out.