The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, Menor said:

Thursday

Showings: 1397 (nc)

Seats Sold: 7805/224104 (+826)

 

Friday

Showings: 3215 (+4)

Seats Sold: 5665/532165 (+643)

 

The JC comp is one day late and TSS may not have that good PSm as JC but strictly using them gives $4-4.5M THU and $7-7.5M True FRI. Actuals may be $3-3.5M THU. 

On 7/25/2021 at 7:26 AM, Menor said:

 

Jungle Cruise MTC2

Thursday:

Showtimes: 1447

Tickets Sold: 4988/231797

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 3020

Tickets Sold: 7421/510823

 

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

7-7.5M True FRI. Actuals may be $3-3.5M THU. 

As a MAX CBM in summer, this would be what like 22M weekend?

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Friday Start

58131/822139 788998.12 4311 shows. 

 

JC MTC1 Sat PS

50962/647061 533667.68 4222 shows. 

 

I am impressed saturday PS is on par with Friday. I think its set for a saturday to have a small increase. MTC2 is tad above 45K(DBOX adjusted). 

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

The JC comp is one day late and TSS may not have that good PSm as JC but strictly using them gives $4-4.5M THU and $7-7.5M True FRI. Actuals may be $3-3.5M THU. 

 

MTC1 should be considered as well.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

As a MAX CBM in summer, this would be what like 22M weekend?

Yeah but 7M seems a bit low to me from 4M THU. 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah but 7M seems a bit low to me from 4M THU. 

Could be, but also it is the first MAX movie with previews. Th is the only day/way to watch it before it’s free, so a lot of that dedicated fan energy should shift from Fri to Th. Maybe not previews as 36% of OD but north of 30 wouldn’t surprise me.

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Menor said:

MTC1 should be considered as well.

Unfortunately we don't have JC MTC 1. Also there's one more fact to consider is that, numbers are mostly from premium showings which can only go somewhat high.

 

As I pointed in Harkins, Cine 1 (I guess there equivalent of PLF) TSS is ahead of JC but normal shows are hardly anything sold. Eventually JC reached 25% in those 4 shows, TSS may hit may be 30-35%, not much difference, but for now in pre-sales they are making sales look high in comparison with JC.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC 1 BW comp gives $3.7M, $3.9M adj for ON.

 

But since MTC 2 and Harkins are way low, I suppose $3-3.5M for now.

[ThomasNicole]

Honestly, if JC can open to 30M, TSS should open with 40 at least. There'so excuse for that, not Delta or HBO Max.

 

JC is being promoted since 2019, terrible timing, almost non-existent buzz just some weeks ago, and still manage to open just fine.

 

No matter how bad SS was, the movie was still a hit, the new one it's still a comic book movie and a DC movie, and it's very acclaimed. If this opens similarly to a theme park based movie, Warner needs to changed their marketing asap, because it's unnaceptable.

Edited July 31, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/30/2021 at 8:38 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad California Harkins T-7 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	17	4,440	25	0.56%	$323	$12.92
Cine 1	4	1,708	167	9.78%	$2,672	$16.00
Total	21	6,148	192	3.12%	$2,995	$15.59

 

At same time

15% of Black Widow Gross - $1.98M

13.2% of Black Widow Admits - $1.75M

 

The film is selling ok in Cine 1, being about 25% of Black Widow but Normal shows are really bad with 12 of them not selling any ticket. Will do next check on Monday, then I will have Jungle Cruise comp as well. TSS is already ahead JC in Cine1 but way way behind in Normal.

 

 

The Suicide Squad California Harkins T-6 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	19	4,734	48	1.01%	$608	$12.67
Cine 1	4	1,708	187	10.95%	$2,992	$16.00
Total	23	6,442	235	3.65%	$3,600	$15.32

 

Shows Added	2
Seats Added	294
Seats Sold	43

 

 

 

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	14606	15124	518	3.43%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	108
Total Seats Sold Today	52

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-7

Total Sold

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

Comp

Ont Comp

BW

13.58

151

3814

0/177

21748/25562

14.92%

1.79m

1.88m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-7 Adjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	55.75		103	922		2/85	2631/3553	25.95%		2.68m		2.80m
F9	35.01		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.09%		2.49m		2.60m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		52	514		0/87	14475/14989	3.43%		---		---
TSS (F9 adj)	---		38	495		0/75	12387/12882	3.84%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.11700x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-7* [5.51m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

 

=====

 

Color me relatively surprised.  Practically no drop from yesterday's sales.  Still a long way to go, but have to say this is a good sign.

 

(FWIW, the H&S comp dropped a bit because H&S spiked for some reason on T-7.  Wasn't a review drop, but there was probably some reason for the spike [it'll drop back down tomorrow], but I don't care enough to investigate it)

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	14570	15124	554	3.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-6

Total Sold

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

Comp

Ont Comp

BW

13.61

256

4070

0/178

21664/25734

15.82%

1.80m

1.88m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	55.39		71	993		5/82	2454/3447	28.81%		2.66m		2.78m
F9	35.03		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		2.49m		2.60m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		36	550		0/87	14439/14989	3.67%		---		---
TSS (F9 adj)	---		28	523		0/75	12359/12882	4.06%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.08669x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-6* [5.36m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

[RRA]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Honestly, if JC can open to 30M, TSS should open with 40 at least. There'so excuse for that, not Delta or HBO Max.

 

JC is being promoted since 2019, terrible timing, almost non-existent buzz just some weeks ago, and still manage to open just fine.

 

No matter how bad SS was, the movie was still a hit, the new one it's still a comic book movie and a DC movie, and it's very acclaimed. If this opens similarly to a theme park based movie, Warner needs to changed their marketing asap, because it's unnaceptable.

I know some franchise war soldiers want blood, but I’m giving it a break all things considered like most recent releases. 40 is doable, more realistic than 60 (which Pro tracked recently as its max range.)

 

 

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Honestly, if JC can open to 30M, TSS should open with 40 at least. There'so excuse for that, not Delta or HBO Max.

 

JC is being promoted since 2019, terrible timing, almost non-existent buzz just some weeks ago, and still manage to open just fine.

 

No matter how bad SS was, the movie was still a hit, the new one it's still a comic book movie and a DC movie, and it's very acclaimed. If this opens similarly to a theme park based movie, Warner needs to changed their marketing asap, because it's unnaceptable.

It's still too early to tell. Maybe it'll get more review bump?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

How often do walk-ups translate for superhero movies? Because I feel like chief concern with Suicide Squad is the weak presales which make up majority business since they’re fan-driven 

[RRA]

23 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

How often do walk-ups translate for superhero movies? Because I feel like chief concern with Suicide Squad is the weak presales which make up majority business since they’re fan-driven 

IIRC WOM hype up plays a part and to be fair it’s reviews are as good as you’re going to get. 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Honestly, if JC can open to 30M, TSS should open with 40 at least. There'so excuse for that, not Delta or HBO Max.

 

If this opens similarly to a theme park based movie, Warner needs to changed their marketing asap, because it's unnaceptable.

Jungle Cruise and Suicide Squad have the same budget, do they not? $200m each?
 

So I don’t know if a $30m opening is acceptable for Jungle Cruise either. Surely that film isn’t getting a free pass? 

 

The Suicide Squad is free on HBOMax on Thursday evening btw everyone. Usually it’s a Friday. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-13	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	2	2	0.17%
		Phoenix	2	3	293	1	1	0.34%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	0	0	0.00%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			11	21	2,562	3	3	0.12%
Respect	T-13	Jacksonville	4	7	1,408	0	0	0.00%
		Phoenix	3	4	564	1	1	0.18%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	0	0	0.00%
Respect Total			13	23	3,593	1	1	0.03%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-9	Jacksonville	3	3	458	13	13	2.84%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	39	39	59.09%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	53	53	8.76%
Respect (FP) Total			8	8	1,129	105	105	9.30%
Suicide Squad	T-6	Jacksonville	6	24	4,399	142	19	3.23%
		Phoenix	6	25	4,277	137	7	3.20%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,230	146	3	4.52%
Suicide Squad Total			20	74	11,906	425	29	3.57%

 

Per usual, Friday morning update with not much movement for future openers.  Added Don't Breathe 2, Respect and the special Fandango premier for Respect (8/9).  The special is selling pretty well, and this doesn't include one showing marked as sold out (it's one of the best selling theaters I track so I'm more inclined to believe this one).   No change in TSS comps avg projection of 2.37m

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-12	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	2	0	0.17%
		Phoenix	2	3	293	3	2	1.02%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	2	2	0.19%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			11	21	2,562	7	4	0.27%
Respect	T-12	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	4	4	0.26%
		Phoenix	4	7	898	2	1	0.22%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	5	5	0.31%
Respect Total			15	27	4,063	11	10	0.27%
Respect (Fandango Premier) *	T-8	Jacksonville	3	3	458	15	2	3.28%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	39	0	59.09%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	56	3	9.26%
Respect (FP) Total			8	8	1,129	110	5	9.74%
Suicide Squad	T-5	Jacksonville	6	24	4,399	159	17	3.61%
		Phoenix	6	25	4,277	160	23	3.74%
		Raleigh	8	25	3,230	154	8	4.77%
Suicide Squad Total			20	74	11,906	473	48	3.97%

 

*Respect Premier not including one sellout

 

TSS increased a little against the comps, moving the forecast to 2.44m.  It's been slowly climbing while trying to catch up from the huge hole of day 1 sales.  

 

Unrelated question: are there any talks of bringing back the derby?  

 

[Curtis1986]

I am a little shocked but not surprised that our preview of Respect is 70% full in one of our largest theaters already. How is it selling at other theaters?

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	87	14570	15124	554	3.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-6

Total Sold

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

Comp

Ont Comp

BW

13.61

256

4070

0/178

21664/25734

15.82%

1.80m

1.88m

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	55.39		71	993		5/82	2454/3447	28.81%		2.66m		2.78m
F9	35.03		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		2.49m		2.60m
TSS (AQP adj)	---		36	550		0/87	14439/14989	3.67%		---		---
TSS (F9 adj)	---		28	523		0/75	12359/12882	4.06%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (AQP adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track and TSS (F9 adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in F9's track.

 

EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP:  1.08669x of Hobbs & Shaw at T-6* [5.36m after adjusting for pandemic era environment]

* at theaters/showings I had the same level of tracking info.

Ugh. No material increase in comps. Can't afford more days like that. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/30/2021 at 12:42 PM, Menor said:

Thursday

Showings: 1397 (nc)

Seats Sold: 7805/224104 (+826)

 

Comps:

0.321x F9 (estimated) at the same point (2.28 million)

0.131x BW (estimated) at the same point (1.73 million)

 

Friday

Showings: 3215 (+4)

Seats Sold: 5665/532165 (+643)

 

Comps:

0.240x F9 (estimated) at the same point (5.44 million)

0.132x BW (estimated) at the same point (3.47 million)

Thursday

Showtimes: 1413 (+16)

Seats Sold: 8757/225957 (+952)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 3237 (+22)

Seats Sold: 6402/534862 (+737)

 

No comps today. But Friday is looking concerning. Usually Friday pace should be ahead of Thursday pace by this point (even for BW Friday was running decently faster by now) but here it isn't even catching up.