The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Tickets aren't even on sale yet though so how can there be any tracking?

Industry tracking is based on polling people. We in this thread use pre-sales.

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If so $2M is quite likely. Let's see where MTC1 ends.

FWIW MTC2 JC comp in the latest run is up to 1.97 million. A bit odd considering the low walkups reported by regional trackers but here the walkups have been outstanding. I think over 2 million should happen unless MTC1 is low.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Menor

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Free Guy doing just around $20 mil while something like Don't Breath 2 reaches within $5 mil of that just shows that releasing high-budget shit is just still not sustainable. I guess its a better result than last weekend. But still pretty bad.

 

It seems the market is being held up by the subscriber base...and they are turning out, but only will hit a certain "baseline" number...

 

I'd love to know if AMC, Regal, or Cinemark released current subscriber figures lately...

[Cooper Legion]

Apocalypse cancelled huh?

 

Could be that delta uncertainty lead to people declining to prebuy but it’s not bad enough (yet?) to completely stop those customers from eventually converting to an admit.

[Nikostar]

I’m still confused. Now everything is over performing? What happened for the change of pace in prediction?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The theater for Free Guy surprisingly had 20-25 which is more than I expected. I thought the movie was quite terrible but it ends on a heartfelt note that will send audiences out on a high 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Ok time for my final guess. Based on current pace FG seems likely to finish at 80% of JC at MTC2, which would be about 2.16 million. Regional trackers have been lower which makes me leery, but the late walkups have been very strong (much like TSS last week, actually, and that also overperformed regional trackers by a good bit). And given that the MTC1 ratio should be better, I will stick my neck out and guess 2.3 million.

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

I’m still confused. Now everything is over performing? What happened for the change of pace in prediction?

Nothing is overperforming per se. This is how these small films are supposed to be. Final day is what make or break them.

 

Regional trackers may have variances, but MTC tracking was expecting $2M previews for long time, and that is where it seems like will be.

Edited August 13, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I will stick my neck out and guess 2.3 million.

That would be in range Megaplex suggested. Let's see where Harkins end up.

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

I’m still confused. Now everything is over performing? What happened for the change of pace in prediction?

It's also just "compared to what"...single digits to 8-10M totals for the films is big percentage wise for those films, but not dollar wise for the domestic market (it could just means subscribers made plans for 2 movies this weekend, not 1)...the whole market will still come in at a not wonderful overall figure for the weekend...

[Borobudur]

50 minutes ago, Menor said:

Ok time for my final guess. Based on current pace FG seems likely to finish at 80% of JC at MTC2, which would be about 2.16 million. Regional trackers have been lower which makes me leery, but the late walkups have been very strong (much like TSS last week, actually, and that also overperformed regional trackers by a good bit). And given that the MTC1 ratio should be better, I will stick my neck out and guess 2.3 million.

 

 

Is Thursday late walk-ups having some spill over effect to Friday? Because I remember the Friday number was bad. 

[keysersoze123]

Free Guy Previews

MTC1 - 42716/229911 645385.88 1311 shows

 

it finished at 95% of MTC1 final for Jungle Cruise. Thinking it should hit 90% final overall. So around 2.5m previews.  Good finish as it more than doubled its number from yesterday. It finished stronger than JC did couple of weeks ago. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I concur 2.5M based on both MTCs. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I agree with 2.5m after seeing MTC1

 

MTC2 Friday PS for FG was 20765 a bit ago. Probably around half where JC was but walkups will be better. 

[Nikostar]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Free Guy Previews

MTC1 - 42716/229911 645385.88 1311 shows

 

it finished at 95% of MTC1 final for Jungle Cruise. Thinking it should hit 90% final overall. So around 2.5m previews.  Good finish as it more than doubled its number from yesterday. It finished stronger than JC did couple of weeks ago. 

What about the other 2

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

What about the other 2

I have no clue. I only tracked Free guy that too only couple of times. You have to go with what so many other trackers have come with. Just look holistically across all of them to see how its doing nationwide. 

[charlie Jatinder]

A very small sample of 100+ on RT has it on 96%. Guess that's A territory with a small chance of A+.

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, Nikostar said:

I’m still confused. Now everything is over performing? What happened for the change of pace in prediction?

No comment on the other movies, but at least for Free Guy, people worry too much with early data when we really should be waiting until the last minute for those types of movies.  Especially with regional numbers. And I’m no exception, I was in the under 2M club yesterday.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

So, a Jungle Cruise-esque internal multiplier gets Free Guy to a $32,5M weekend. Probably a little lower than that since this is a fan-driven movie.

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

So, a Jungle Cruise-esque internal multiplier gets Free Guy to a $32,5M weekend. Probably a little lower than that since this is a fan-driven movie.

fan of what? has broad videogame appeal ? no rush to see this