The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

Speaking of the current woes facing the specialty crowd, Variety published an article earlier about the struggles that are facing Oscar/adult fare this year. Although even if The French Dispatch does 30% of The Grand Budapest Hotel's numbers that would still be sorta above average for an indie in this day and age (Wes Anderson having a considerable young fanbase helps).

 

 

“It’s not likely ‘Grand Budapest Hotel’ numbers will come back anytime soon,” Frank Rodriguez, who has led distribution at Searchlight since 2011, says of Wes Anderson's new film. “The box office for films like these is probably at 30% of what it was.” https://t.co/jjJHYK4RbM pic.twitter.com/nmTk2vbjbU

— Variety (@Variety) October 14, 2021

Edited October 15, 2021 by filmlover

[charlie Jatinder]

On line of @Porthos Quick and Dirty Check, 

 

Halloween Kills had 1480 sold at 4 Harkins in Phoenix and 1880 in 4 CA theaters at 19:00. All of them having strong occupancies, and will probably add another 20% or so in walk ins.

 

Problem is HK dont have PLFs so comps are bit iffy. SC had 2872 and 3480 sold in these theaters. HK will reach 63-65% of SC, so round about $5.25-5.75M representative, but SC over indexed in Canada, so cut to $5-5.5M may be.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Just guess the insane Cinemark skew regarding showtimes is putting a thumb on the scale. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Just not a lot of non-Cinemark showings here and it shows in the final totals.

excuses. excuses. lame excuses.

 

Take the L Porthos.

[DAJK]

I’ll do an update before my showing of Last Duel, but I’m glad that (for once) my local area seems to be lining up relatively well with what everyone else has... so far!

 

Halloween: 5M and Last Duel: 610k

[Menor the Destroyer]

Halloween Final Thurs Numbers (MTC2):

 

Showtimes: 2175

Seats Sold: 88262

$ Sales: 1106865

 

Will probably add another few thousand from here, so about 93k final or 1.17 million. Compared to other MTC2 heavy films like F9 and JC gives 5.47 and 6.13 million respectively. Venom 2 (again very MTC2 heavy) gives 5.53 million. Will go with that last one, so probably 5.5 million. Not sure where MTC1 ends up, if it comes in the same as MTC2 or lower (as opposed to slightly higher which is what I expect) then it may be closer to 5. 

Edited October 15, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Eternals MTC1

Previews(T-22) - 42790/358112 767998.66 1801 shows (+2830)

OD(T-23) - 24472/715011 443602.78 3520 shows (+2242)

 

Key thing to see if it will hit BW T-19 number for previews (49389/447463 738526.00 2288 shows). It will be close for sure but its trending down as I mentioned yesterday. On plus side its doing it with fewer shows. So there is greater boost potential in the final week. 

Eternals MTC1

Previews(T-21) -  45363/359555 811468.27 1810 shows (+2573)

OD(T-22) -  26436/717376 477292.72 3532 shows (+1964)

 

Not a bad day at all. It retained about 85-90% of yesterday's sales. I will next update on saturday to compare T-19 with BW. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

HK MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 45437/249593 681318.05 1589 shows (+10496)

Friday(T-2)  - 72965/699592 1088501.39 4074 shows (+18381)

HK MTC1

Previews Final -  88724/254376 1291225.80 1653 shows

Friday PS End - 107808/708906 1592162.22 4185 shows

 

Its walkups today were ok but not spectacular. I would say previews ~ 4.8m. 

 

its friday PS ended tad below where I thought it would. Based on what we saw today its headed towards 20-21 OD including previews. Overall OW should mid 40s. 

[The Wild Eric]

23 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	34	862	6781	12.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Comp

0.860x of F9 T-8 (6.11M)

0.343x of Black Widow T-8 (4.53M)

2.245x of The Suicide Squad T-8 (9.2M)

0.612x of Shang-Chi T-8 (5.38M)

0.896x of Venom 2 T-8 (10.39M)

0.916x of No Time to Die T-8 (5.77M)

 

I dunno guys, this is starting to feel a little too NTTD for me. They really need to sell this movie towards the non-PLF crowd pronto.

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	925	7031	13.16%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 250

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp

0.877x of F9 T-7 (6.22M)

0.350x of Black Widow T-7 (4.62M)

2.229x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (9.14M)

0.601x of Shang-Chi T-7 (5.29M)

0.891x of Venom 2 T-7 (10.34M)

0.876x of No Time to Die T-7 (5.52M)

[The Wild Eric]

23 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	1088	10146	10.72%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 77

 

Comp

1.029x of Black Widow's First Three Days of Presales (13.59M)

0.808x of Black Widow T-22 (10.67M)

1.312x of Shang-Chi's Third Day of Presales (11.55M)

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1181	11561	10.22%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 1,415

Total Seats Sold Today: 93

 

Comp

0.834x of Black Widow T-21 (11.01M)

[keysersoze123]

Dune Previews MTC1 (T-7) - 39723/245697 729359.81 1212 shows

Dune Friday MTC1(T-8) - 40655/534920 734038.19 2635 shows

 

Number is quite good considering there is a week to go and its still ahead of NTTD. That said I dont have high hopes final 2 days surge after what we saw last 2 weeks plus the HBO Max release. Still it should hit 5m previews as Bond is my benchmark. 

 

Edit: good to see Friday ahead of Thursday for a fanboy driven movie. 

 

 

Edited October 15, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

$5.25M previews probably IMO. 

[famicommander]

I think Dune will be a lot less impacted by HBO Max than The Suicide Squad was, at the very least. That movie was set up more than any other to have its legs cut out from under it by HBO Max due to so many other DC movies and shows being released there first (including Wonder Woman 1984, Justice League Snyder Cut, Harley Quinn animated series, Doom Patrol, Titans, Young Justice, the DC DTV animated films, etc). The number of people who would want to see that movie but weren't already HBO Max subscribers would be very small in comparison to a general audience film like Dune. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

610k for Last Duel? Should be like 8m weekend then, right?

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$5.25M previews probably IMO. 

I compared with Venom 2 which overperformed at MTC2 as well and ratio does not call for previews > 5m. Plus Venom 2 was huge in Canada. This seems more normal. That is why I went with 4.8m. 5.25m is almost 10% higher than that. I hope you are right. 

[ViewerAnon]

Not that it’d ever be this consistent, but just for funsies: HALLOWEEN 2018 made $7.7M in previews for a $76.2M weekend. If HALLOWEEN KILLS managed the exact same ratio:

 

$4.8M = $47.5M

$5.25M = $51.9M

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Last Duel was really great, too bad it's not gonna make any money  

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Not that it’d ever be this consistent, but just for funsies: HALLOWEEN 2018 made $7.7M in previews for a $76.2M weekend. If HALLOWEEN KILLS managed the exact same ratio:

 

$4.8M = $47.5M

$5.25M = $51.9M

FRI sales are good, thinking 47M ish weekend from 5.25M.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I compared with Venom 2 which overperformed at MTC2 as well and ratio does not call for previews > 5m. Plus Venom 2 was huge in Canada. This seems more normal. That is why I went with 4.8m. 5.25m is almost 10% higher than that. I hope you are right. 

41% of V2 in MTC 1 and 48% in 2. Harkins seemed like 2nd too. Drafthouse looks like $6M+ ratio. MTC3 will be deciding factor, whether it is 5M or 5.25M IMO. 

 

But then I have been getting THU a bit higher despite trying so hard, so may be it end up lower again.

Edited October 15, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

I am pulling Harkins data now. Absolutely incredible numbers. 50% occupancy in Cerritos, 55% in Mountain Grove. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	78	11060	12042	982	8.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

82

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	83.79		134	1172		0/144	211181/22353	5.24%		5.19m
SC	59.84		149	1641		0/108	15846/17487	9.38%		5.27m
V2	66.98		107	1466		0/168	26584/28050	5.23%		7.77m

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	69.77		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		5.19m
Dune (adj)	---		82	923		0/68	9703/10626	8.69%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 260/4758 [5.46% sold] [+19 tickets]

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	11280	12328	1048	8.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	286
Total Seats Sold Today	66

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	80.49		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		4.99m
SC	59.08		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		5.20m
V2	63.71		179	1645		0/173	26553/28198	5.83%		7.39m

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	69.66		91	1414		0/86	11869/13283	10.65%		5.18m
Dune (adj)	---		62	985		0/69	9927/10912	9.03%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 279/4758 [5.86% sold] [+19 tickets]