The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric is Anxious]

On 11/17/2021 at 12:20 AM, Eric Venkman said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-36 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	49	275	9354	2.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-35 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	287	9642	2.98%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 288

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

One theater added in the November 27 Early Access show. Not sure why it took a while, but it made up the bulk of sales today. Not much else to report at this point.

[Legion Again]

Pretty damn funny you guys

[Eric is Anxious]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think anything over 4.5 would certainly get Ghostbusters to 40m OW. Not sure it hits that preview number but it ain't gonna be that frontloaded.

 

10m would be very solid for Richard.

Honestly, even 4M should lead to 40M. I'll fully admit that my IM skills and understanding in this new pandemic era is rusty, especially when the 35+ and family audiences that are being targeted towards Afterlife are still big unknowns. But I would be personally very surprised at an IM that was less than 10x for this.

[Legion Again]

Yeah, Friday looks like it should do like 3-3.3x Th imo. True IM should be 3+, so IM 10+ ( 1+3*3)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	178	21594	23104	1510	5.73%

 

Total Showings Capped Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	25
Total Seats Added Today	2573
Total Seats Sold Today	333

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	142.18		167	1062		0/105	15390/16452	6.46%		5.83m
SC	46.05		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		4.05m
V2	40.21		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		4.66m
NTTD	67.71		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		4.20m

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	57.60		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4.28m
GA (adj)	---		317	1417		0/157	18825/20242	7.00%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal:     341/7153 [4.77% sold] [+64 tickets]

Matinee:   81/2173 [3.73% | 5.36% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Very nice day today, BUT this is a pretty heavy Atom market (roughly 44% of the theaters I track at the seat level), with both Cinemark and Studio Movie Grill theaters in the region (well, one SMG).  Perhaps unsurprisingly, the capped showing was from an SMG showing that skyrocketed tonight. 

 

Still, sales are sales.  See what the final stretch brings.

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	192	22169	24249	2080	8.58%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1145
Total Seats Sold Today	570

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	154.88		281	1343		0/107	15221/16564	8.11%		6.35m
SC	49.86		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		4.39m
V2	40.57		1372	5127		0/244	22009/33136	15.47%		4.71m
NTTD	74.66		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		4.63m

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	67.37		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		5.01m
GA (adj)	---		536	1953		0/170	19375/21328	9.16%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal:     491/7516 [6.53% sold] [+150 tickets]

Matinee:   95/2173 [4.37% | 4.57% of all tickets sold]

 

G:A EARLY ACCESS FINAL NUMBERS:     221/393 [56.23% sold] [+99 tickets] [2 showings]

NTTD EARLY ACCESS FINAL NUMBERS:  558/978 [57.06% sold] [+104 tickets] [4 showings]

G:A/NTTD EA RATIO: 39.61% ≈ 400k

NOTE: G:A EA final numbers ARE included in the totals given at the top of this post.  This is simply a breakdown of the EA shows that were screened today for those interested in the information.

 

================

 

A great day no matter how it's sliced for this type of movie.  Nearly matched No Time To Die in EA tickets sold and surpassed it in overall sales.

 

Does have a few more showtimes, it should be noted.  Still, no sign of slowing down.  If anything, it's accelerating on NTTD.

 

Mind, both NTTD and TSS are weak comps due to the adult-skewing nature of those films, as I would guess G:A is gonna be FAR more family friendly than those films, especially TSS.  On the other hand, the F9 comp is noted in that it outsold it by quite a bit today.

 

Do wonder how 4pm previews + 2hr film will affect the IM when it comes to burning off demand, but that's a battle for the Weekend Thread to hash out and not Yours Truly. 

 

So it's set itself up quite nicely.  Now we see how walkups are tomorrow and just where this might land.

 

Edited November 18, 2021 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:

Same as it ever was with deadline 

Unless it’s for Eternals 🌚

 

[von Kenni]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	192	22169	24249	2080	8.58%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1145
Total Seats Sold Today	570

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
TSS	154.88		281	1343		0/107	15221/16564	8.11%		6.35m
SC	49.86		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		4.39m
V2	40.57		1372	5127		0/244	22009/33136	15.47%		4.71m
NTTD	74.66		556	2786		0/178	21932/24718	11.27%		4.63m

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	67.37		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		5.01m
GA (adj)	---		536	1953		0/170	19375/21328	9.16%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: GA (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal:     491/7516 [6.53% sold] [+150 tickets]

Matinee:   95/2173 [4.37% | 4.57% of all tickets sold]

 

G:A EARLY ACCESS FINAL NUMBERS:     221/393 [56.23% sold] [+99 tickets] [2 showings]

NTTD EARLY ACCESS FINAL NUMBERS:  558/978 [57.06% sold] [+104 tickets] [4 showings]

G:A/NTTD EA RATIO: 39.61% ≈ 400k

NOTE: G:A EA final numbers ARE included in the totals given at the top of this post.  This is simply a breakdown of the EA shows that were screened today for those interested in the information.

 

================

 

A great day no matter how it's sliced for this type of movie.  Nearly matched No Time To Die in EA tickets sold and surpassed it in overall sales.

 

Does have a few more showtimes, it should be noted.  Still, no sign of slowing down.  If anything, it's accelerating on NTTD.

 

Mind, both NTTD and TSS are weak comps due to the adult-skewing nature of those films, as I would guess G:A is gonna be FAR more family friendly than those films, especially TSS.  On the other hand, the F9 comp is noted in that it outsold it by quite a bit today.

 

Do wonder how 4pm previews + 2hr film will affect the IM when it comes to burning off demand, but that's a battle for the Weekend Thread to hash out and not Yours Truly. 

 

So it's set itself up quite nicely.  Now we see how walkups are tomorrow and just where this might land.

 

Getting giddy about this... $40m + is all good and $50m or close to it would be just perfect. Then WOM does the rest. If it sucks it'll crawl, if it'll bridge OG fans & newbies, then it'll run, run Forest!

 

[YM!]

Neat, my theater is also including vaccine required screenings for films too. Ghostbusters Afterlife and King Richard are the two next week. Will definitely give it a go if one is available for NWH.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Unless it’s for Eternals 🌚

 

If a film underperforms then Deadline will be right, basically. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

If a film underperforms then Deadline will be right, basically. 

if a film that is not supposed to underperform, underperforms..

or if a film that is supposed to underperform, doesn't..

 

then deadline will be right

[Eric is Anxious]

1 hour ago, von Kenni said:

Getting giddy about this... $40m + is all good and $50m or close to it would be just perfect. Then WOM does the rest. If it sucks it'll crawl, if it'll bridge OG fans & newbies, then it'll run, run Forest!

 

Can I just say I love the endless supply of Ron Swanson GIFs you possess

[katnisscinnaplex]

16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@katnisscinnaplex how big is afterlife early shows release. It looks like around MTC1/2 around 250K today and so overall BO should be close to half a million(roughly half of Bond). 

 

I almost forgot, but there's an AMC Investor Connect showing of House of Gucci tonight.  Looks like ~200 locations from what I can see.  Not sure if anyone has looked at sales yet, but I'll add it to my list for today.

[von Kenni]

24 minutes ago, Eric Venkman said:

Can I just say I love the endless supply of Ron Swanson GIFs you possess

 

Thank you. I find your changing alter egos invigorating and staring daily Timothée Chalamet's beautiful face isn't either the most unpleasing thing to do.

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

If a film underperforms then Deadline will be right, basically. 

Well, not even that was true for Eternals I’m afraid. Deadline were still too high. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/17/2021 at 9:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Ghostbusters (Wed)	Jacksonville	2	2	558	72	28	12.90%
	Ghostbusters (Wed) Total		2	2	558	72	28	12.90%
T-1	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	67	10,512	433	116	4.12%
		Phoenix	7	39	6,582	557	114	8.46%
		Raleigh	8	36	4,886	411	80	8.41%
	Ghostbusters Total		22	142	21,980	1,401	310	6.37%
T-10	Sing 2 (11/27)	Jacksonville	3	3	295	48	2	16.27%
		Phoenix	5	5	764	81	0	10.60%
		Raleigh	5	5	639	151	10	23.63%
	Sing 2 (11/27) Total		13	13	1,698	280	12	16.49%
T-2	King Richard (Friday)	Jacksonville	6	40	6,298	85	21	1.35%
		Phoenix	7	26	3,651	55	30	1.51%
		Raleigh	8	44	5,011	68	11	1.36%
	King Richard (Friday) Total		21	110	14,960	208	62	1.39%
T-6	Encanto (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	27	3,776	21	21	0.56%
		Phoenix	7	27	2,943	23	23	0.78%
		Raleigh	8	14	1,438	38	38	2.64%
	Encanto (Tue) Total		21	68	8,157	82	82	1.01%
T-6	House of Gucci (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	14	2,410	34	8	1.41%
		Phoenix	7	10	1,160	25	16	2.16%
		Raleigh	7	7	865	33	6	3.82%
	House of Gucci (Tue) Total		20	31	4,435	92	30	2.07%
T-6	Resident Evil (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	24	2,629	19	19	0.72%
		Phoenix	7	21	2,280	15	15	0.66%
		Raleigh	7	15	1,454	19	19	1.31%
	Resident Evil (Tue) Total		20	60	6,363	53	53	0.83%

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.46x (6m)

Dune - .795x (4.05m)

F9 - .642x (4.56m)

Leaning toward 4.5 (close to 5m with Wed added)

 

King Richard comps

Stillwater - 6.5x (1.82m)

Respect - 2.93x (1.9m)

Reminiscence - 4.52x (3.07m)

The Friday release comps have been on the higher side so let's go with 2.75m for Friday.

 

House of Gucci comps

Zola (Tue) - 1.48x (preview not reported)

Stillwater - 1.92x (537k)

Respect - 1.92x (1.25m)

Evan Hansen - 1.394x (1.12m)

 

Encanto comps

Boss Baby 2 - 2.1x (2.75m)

Paw Patrol - .474x (2.14m)

 

Resident Evil comps

Candyman - .558x (1.06m)

Venom - .055x (640k)

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-0	Ghostbusters	Jacksonville	7	68	10,563	563	130	5.33%
		Phoenix	7	41	6,665	711	154	10.67%
		Raleigh	8	37	4,934	518	107	10.50%
	Ghostbusters Total		22	146	22,162	1,792	391	8.09%
	House of Gucci (11/18)	Jacksonville	2	2	110	60	60	54.55%
		Phoenix	2	2	189	82	82	43.39%
		Raleigh	2	2	157	48	48	30.57%
	House of Gucci (11/18) Total		6	6	456	190	190	41.67%
T-1	King Richard (Friday)	Jacksonville	6	40	6,298	116	31	1.84%
		Phoenix	7	26	3,651	87	32	2.38%
		Raleigh	8	51	5,464	130	62	2.38%
	King Richard (Friday) Total		21	117	15,413	333	125	2.16%
T-5	Encanto (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	27	3,776	26	5	0.69%
		Phoenix	7	27	2,943	31	8	1.05%
		Raleigh	8	14	1,438	52	14	3.62%
	Encanto (Tue) Total		21	68	8,157	109	27	1.34%
	House of Gucci (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	14	2,410	38	4	1.58%
		Phoenix	7	10	1,160	55	30	4.74%
		Raleigh	7	7	865	44	11	5.09%
	House of Gucci (Tue) Total		20	31	4,435	137	45	3.09%
	Resident Evil (Tue)	Jacksonville	6	24	2,629	24	5	0.91%
		Phoenix	7	21	2,280	27	12	1.18%
		Raleigh	7	15	1,454	22	3	1.51%
	Resident Evil (Tue) Total		20	60	6,363	73	20	1.15%
T-9	Sing 2 (11/27)	Jacksonville	3	3	295	56	8	18.98%
		Phoenix	5	5	764	82	1	10.73%
		Raleigh	5	5	639	157	6	24.57%
	Sing 2 (11/27) Total		13	13	1,698	295	15	17.37%

 

Ghostbusters comps

TSS - 1.414x (5.8m)

NTTD - .797x (4.143m)

Dune - .81x (4.13m)

F9 - .5862x (4.162m)

 

Well, the comps are definitely converging now.  I'd be crazy to guess anything but 4.15m for true Thursday previews.  Using data from others for the Wed shows, I think 4.5m is very likely the full preview number

 

King Richard comps

Stillwater - 7.085x (1.98m)

Respect - 3.171x (2.06m)

Reminiscence - 4.56x (3.1m)

 

I'll drop my KR Friday prediction to 2.5m.  

 

Gucci early shows comps

Respect early shows - .6x (not reported?)

Evan Hansen early shows - 2.57x (not reported?)

 

House of Gucci comps

Stillwater - 2.85x (799k)

Respect - 2.854x (1.86m)

Evan Hansen - 2.17x (1.74m)

 

Encanto comps

Boss Baby 2 - 2.27x (2.97m)

Paw Patrol - .517x (2.34m)

 

Resident Evil comps

Candyman - .695x (1.32m)

[titanic2187]

Just came back from GB: A early access showing and the unexpectedly heart-warming experience got me curious about how much can the film gross this round. Are we looking at something 4.5m in preview? Hope Afterlife can beat 2016 version.   

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Previews(T-1)

MTC1 - 49197/462845 813521.23 2407 shows

MTC2 - 32599/491711 430117.60  3433 shows

 

Morning update

Ghostbusters Afterlife Previews

MTC1 - 54335/463060 891456.27 2421 shows

MTC2 - 37691/495866 494651.89 3474 shows

 

I would say good start to the day. 

 

Friday PS

MTC1 - 52773/828441 839996.03 4290 shows

MTC2 - 46602/733253 562052.58  4831 shows

 

For Friday to be 3x thursday, it will need big walkups. We will know if that is possible based on how things go today. 

Edited November 18, 2021 by keysersoze123

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2.5 Friday for King Richard will surely keep it under Respect's 8.8m OW

 

Last Duel- 1.8m (4.75m)

Stillwater: 1.8m (5.18m)

Dear Evan Hansen- 3.2m (7.4m)

Respect- 3.6m (8.8m)

 

So a 6m-7m OW?

 

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

2.5 Friday for King Richard will surely keep it under Respect's 8.8m OW

 

Last Duel- 1.8m (4.75m)

Stillwater: 1.8m (5.18m)

Dear Evan Hansen- 3.2m (7.4m)

Respect- 3.6m (8.8m)

 

So a 6m-7m OW?

 

 I mean with HBO Max you know it wont have a good multiplier across the weekend or after that so 2.5 will be low 6s I think. A shame as I here its crowd pleasing and Will Smith is terrific. This type of film did 100M in the past. My my how the world has changed. 

[el sid]

King Richard, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 74 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 23 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 11 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 78 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 85 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 283.

24% up since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Respect (8.8M OW) had 247 sold tickets,
and Stillwater (5.2M OW) had 72 sold tickets in 6 theaters (would be 209 for KR in the same 6 theaters),
(and Reminiscence (2.0M OW) had 262 sold tickets but was clearly overperforming in my theaters, so I ignore that comp).
The jump of King Richard was way smaller than that of Respect (91% till Thursday) and HBO Max will be a factor again. OTOH that King Richard has (I guess?) a younger target audience could be an advantage.
But also because of the other reports here (Friday under 2M, 2.24M and 2.5M) I doubt that it will land in front of Respect, probably a bit below.

G:A, counted today at 11am EST for today:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 241 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 146 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 108 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 35 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 58 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 254 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 595 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.437.
Up 17.5% since yesterday.
Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday and in 7 theaters): TSS (26.2M OW) had 1.929 sold tickets = 3.05M (again a small improvement),
and Zombieland 2 (2.85M) had 927 sold tickets = 4.5M (went a bit down but less than I feared).
As mentioned before, I would add at least 1M to the TSS comps.
Overall I slightly lift my preview prediction to 4.5M (+Wednesday) because the jump was quite good and it has the advantage of a PG-13-Rating compared to Zombieland 2.

G:A, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 313 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 99 (15 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 127 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 33 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 44 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 186 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 322 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.124.
119% up since Monday. A big jump and needed.
Comps (always counted on Thursday for Friday and in 7 theaters): TSS (8M true Friday) had 1.560 sold tickets = 5.75M (that's too low of course because no R-Rating or HBO Max here. And G:A gained ca. 1.5M since Monday in comparison),
Zombieland 2 (7.35M) had 905 sold tickets = 9.1M
and Jungle Cruise (10.8M) had 817 sold tickets = 14.85M (0.7M down since Monday, not that bad).

Very uneven comps. No HBO Max on the one hand but also no The Rock. But WOM could help and due to the first reactions I lean to the higher end.