The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Tinalera]

6 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:

It’s still a little early. Right now kantmiss is the only one tracking it iirc, and their numbers suggest previews something like 1.2-1.8 in my eyes for a 3day of 10-18ish if I had to guess. Boxofficepro’s most recent update (7days ago) had it at 8-13 for the 3 day. 

From Toronto Ontario (if you fancy those numbers) Im tracking about 25 theatres 

 

(I realize these are a small blip compared to US numbers, but-more data right? )

 

House Of Gucci-

Greater Toronto Area

Wed Nov 24 (taken Nov 18)

 

25 theatres (Yorkdale apparently having issues with a poweroutage so no count there)

92 shows 

Total sold 894

Total Remaining 21817

Total seats 22711

percentage 3.94

Edited November 19, 2021 by Tinalera

[Inceptionzq]

10 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse Friday(282 showings)

 

7026(+1036)/38250(+123)

 

Eternals comp: 12.56M

 

Not a good comp, but hey, no way it'll crater like Eternals did. So I guess this is a worst case scenario comp.

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse Friday(282 showings)

 

8079(+1053)/38250

 

Eternals comp: 13.15M

[Inceptionzq]

10 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex Friday(180 showings)

 

2727(+539)/50772 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 14.76M

 

Just gonna get rid of the NTTD comp, it overperformed at Megaplex. Since the SC comp looked good for Thursday, I guess why not use it here. Not perfect but probably the best I have right now.

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex Friday(180 showings)

 

3056(+329)/50772 in 15 theaters

 

Shang-Chi comp: 15.04M

 

I think it'll end up just a tad below the comp, but looking good

[keysersoze123]

Good call @charlie Jatinder

 

Any couple of hours ago

Ghostbusters Afterlife Friday

MTC1 - 77787/839569 1208722.77 4431 shows

MTC2 - 68254/743181 807120.33 4911 shows

 

Let us see how walkups go. This is over indexing at MTC2.

 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:

I have no idea what the edit is supposed to mean.

It means that if Ghostbusters is opening on the very low end of their forecast, maybe House of Gucci will too. 

[Cap]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hmm. Getting a preview right. @Menor is the only loser left now.

 

Well he and @Cap

 

 

What?

 

NeverMind just saw

 

apparently we aren’t ham for busting ghosts up here

[Jamiem]

Long Range Tracking for NWH 

 

OW: $135,000,000 – $185,000,000

 

DOM: $375,000,000 – $525,000,000

 

Source: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/

 

I could see higher personally, particularly the domestic total. 

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Long Range Tracking for NWH 

 

OW: $135,000,000 – $185,000,000

 

DOM: $375,000,000 – $525,000,000

 

Source: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/

 

I could see higher personally, particularly the domestic total. 

Legs almost definately around 3 so with this ow predictions we would have 405-555 dom total at least

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/18/2021 at 3:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Tuesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

13

728

1.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

12

538

2.23%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
101	19	6814	1.48%	15	45

 

AMCs sold	62
Cinemarks sold	22
Regals sold	13
Harkins sold	4

 

Free Guy comp: 1.26M

Jungle Cruise comp: 1.41M

Encanto Tuesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

25

728

3.43%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

24

538

4.46%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
154	53	6814	2.26%	15	45

 

AMCs sold	106
Cinemarks sold	27
Regals sold	17
Harkins sold	4

 

Free Guy comp: 1.59M

Jungle Cruise comp: 1.92M

 

Really good day

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/18/2021 at 3:36 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-5 days Tuesday(35 showings):  110(+39)/8973(+170) in 15 theaters

 

T-6 days Wednesday(101 showings): 548(+196)/30241(+656) in 15 theaters

 

T-7 days Thursday(104 showings): 4511(+1190)/31555(+950) in 15 theaters

 

T-8 days Friday(100 showings): 1338(+385)/30883(+950) in 15 theaters

 

T-9 days Saturday(94 showings): 345(+111)/29854 in 14 theaters

Encanto Megaplex

 

T-4 days Tuesday(35 showings):  162(+52)/8973 in 15 theaters

 

T-5 days Wednesday(106 showings): 770(+222)/31046(+805) in 15 theaters

 

T-6 days Thursday(110 showings): 5646(+1135)/32548(+993) in 15 theaters

 

T-7 days Friday(100 showings): 1727(+389)/30883 in 15 theaters

 

T-8 days Saturday(94 showings): 496(+151)/29854 in 14 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/18/2021 at 3:38 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-5 days Tuesday(44 showings): 260(+62)/6289(+201)

 

T-6 days Wednesday(85 showings): 489(+88)/12231(+768)

 

T-7 days Thursday(93 showings): 311(+93)/13237(+768)

 

T-8 days Friday(71 showings): 457(+89)/9504(+768)

 

T-9 days Saturday(77 showings): 198(+65)/10144(+683)

Encanto Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-4 days Tuesday(44 showings): 314(+54)/6289

 

T-5 days Wednesday(91 showings): 705(+216)/12930(+699)

 

T-6 days Thursday(93 showings): 476(+165)/13237

 

T-7 days Friday(71 showings): 555(+98)/9504

 

T-8 days Saturday(78 showings): 273(+75)/10229(+85)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex

 

T-2 days Saturday(184 showings): 1690(+306)/52072 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 10.04M

 

T-3 days Sunday(150 showings): 441(+141)/43876 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 10.19M

 

Don't have that great of comps here, just checked SC for the heck of it and it seems decent. Also 4.4M for the SC comp in Denver, so why not.

Ghostbusters Afterlife Megaplex

 

T-1 days Saturday(185 showings): 2355(+665)/52187(+115) in 15 theaters

 

Eternals comp: 16.86M

 

T-2 days Sunday(150 showings): 574(+133)/43876 in 15 theaters

 

Eternals comp: 11.66M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse

 

T-2 days Saturday(318 showings): 5771(+862)/43241(+263)

 

T-3 days Sunday(259 showings): 2821(+451)/35459(+1958)

 

Forgot to check Thursday earlier for the start of Central and Eastern time showings. Missing almost 40 showings as you can see. Oh well

Ghostbusters Afterlife Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Saturday(319 showings): 7613(+1842)/43314(+73)

 

Eternals comp: 14.29M

 

T-2 days Sunday(267 showings): 3757(+936)/36052(+593)

 

Eternals comp: 8.78M

[Legion Again]

6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

It means that if Ghostbusters is opening on the very low end of their forecast, maybe House of Gucci will too. 

But Ghostbusters might not be opening on the low end of 40-60 😛

[SpiderByte]

3 hours ago, Jamiem said:

Long Range Tracking for NWH 

 

OW: $135,000,000 – $185,000,000

 

DOM: $375,000,000 – $525,000,000

 

Source: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-spider-man-no-way-home/

 

I could see higher personally, particularly the domestic total. 

OW is waaaay too low imp

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric Venkman said:

Encanto Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	124	6595	1.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

0.350x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-5 (2.7M)

1.051x of Jungle Cruise T-5 (2.84M)

1.181x of Free Guy T-5 (2.6M)

Encanto Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	41	144	6595	2.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Comp

0.356x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-4 (2.75M)

0.966x of Jungle Cruise T-4 (2.61M)

1.190x of Free Guy T-4 (2.62M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 11/18/2021 at 11:57 PM, Eric Venkman said:

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	303	9642	3.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

Sing 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-33 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	324	9642	3.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good call @charlie Jatinder

 

Any couple of hours ago

Ghostbusters Afterlife Friday

MTC1 - 77787/839569 1208722.77 4431 shows

MTC2 - 68254/743181 807120.33 4911 shows

 

Let us see how walkups go. This is over indexing at MTC2.

 

Ghostbusters Afterlife Friday final

MTC1 - 165360/844814 2451269.68 4515 shows

MTC2 - 169967/756191 1921947.61 4951 shows

 

Meh walkups especially at MTC1. MTC2 did pick up some of the slack. I would guess 11m true friday(lower than what Charlie said). Hope I am wrong :-(

 

Anyway I will take a break from tracking until you know what PS start. it should be really interesting considering the short PS window. 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyway I will take a break from tracking until you know what PS start. it should be really interesting considering the short PS window. 

 

Thankfully, we have a recent MCU comp in Shang-Chi that'll be the exact same number of days of pre-sales.  I do expect NWH to be more front heavy than SC due to upfront hype, so it's not an absolutely perfect comp.  But MCU film + exact same number of pre-sale days?  Well, it's gonna be better than most.

 

=====

 

FTR, Ghostbusters: Afterlife turned out to be right in line with all of my MCU comps at the end of the day, which makes sense from a demo point of view.  Pity that it's shape of pre-sales is probably different from Shang-Chi, as it too will have the exact same number of pre-sale days as NWH.  Probably be worth it to rope in toward the end, if not the beginning or middle.

[Legion Again]

SC comp seems near useless imo. I’d rather use TROS, and that is also kind of sketchy. As far as pace maybe something like IW. It’s just real slim pickings.