The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Caveman Sam]

Okay, a quick spot-update from the UK:

 

I went to a midnight showing last night. 8 screens, mostly large (mine was ~600 seats), all starting at midnight, all sold out 100%.

 

Frankly it was chaos! The cinema just wasn't built for that capacity with a simultaneous start time. They had to keep people in the lobby and let them up the escalator in batches, direct people into the screens in batches, and had massive lines for a pre-show trip to the toilets. Forget about getting concessions unless you were a half hour early... And they still had people on the doors turning away walk-ins - and lots of them actually (hundreds of people walking up to a midnight showing? madness...). Was kind of bizarre getting stuck in traffic for 30mins trying to leave the car park at 3am!

 

I went to the midnight showing of IW, and it was busy, but this was on another plane of reality entirely!

 

One more thing I will say: Do not underestimate the legs on this thing. It'll get an A+ cinema score, of that I'm absolutely certain, and people will be talking about it for decades.

Edited April 25, 2019 by Caveman Sam

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, stfletch said:

So, as an alternative I used the split based on the first couple of days of pre-sales for Infinity War

Clever.     

 

There have been *a lot* of valuable posters putting a lot of time into tracking this movie’s prerelease run (seriously @everyone, great job) but for me you were the MVP (well, and Wang, but insider connections are hax).

[stfletch]

45 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Clever.     

 

There have been *a lot* of valuable posters putting a lot of time into tracking this movie’s prerelease run (seriously @everyone, great job) but for me you were the MVP (well, and Wang, but insider connections are hax).

Thank you! I enjoy the number crunching and glad you and a few others thought it was useful. Now I'm just super hyped to see this thing! Gotta stay spoiler free until Saturday 3pm.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Jayhawk said:

Hey Charlie, what is your update schedule for this weekend again? I know you posted it once before, but I can't seem to find it.

 

On 4/23/2019 at 11:18 PM, Charlie Jatinder said:

Here's how we gonna deal with weekend

 

11:00 EST: Early Estimate

15:00 EST: Mid Day (may be)

21:00 EST: Mid Day 1

02:00 EST: Mid Day 2

05:00 EST: Actuals.

 

[XXR & Friends]

23 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Endgame Fandango Tracking - 8 Updates

 

April 23: 14116

April 24: 19354 (+37.1%)

 

IW Equivalent Wednesday : 68200

 

Previews Thursday - Endgame Fandango Tracking - 8 Updates 

April 24: 19354
April 25: 21244 (+9.8%)

 

IW Equivalent Thursday: 76734

 

Fandango 24 Hour % = 91.155

 

MT
89.8% Avengers: Endgame

2.1% Captain Marvel

1.3% Shazam!

1.2% The Curse of La Llorona

1% Dumbo

 

Edited April 25, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Sue Denim]

So, I've been tracking my local theater in Brighton, MI for A:EG opening night and did a quick morning-of-the-show update.  150 more tickets sold between yesterday's update and today.  26 showtimes collectively are running at nearly 74% capacity.  Walk-up business will be shuttled into the later shows.  My showtime at 10:00 pm is 67% filled, with seats remaining in only the first 3 rows.

 

Here's the rundown for this morning, so far, if anyone is interested.

	Thursday Showtimes:			26
MJR Brighton - Thursday April 25 A:EG opening
2D	6:05	37	41		90.24%
	6:10	185	214		86.45%
	6:20	90	98		91.84%
	6:30	136	156		87.18%
	6:35	30	40		75.00%
	6:50	71	100		71.00%
	7:00	52	60		86.67%
	7:10	182	211		86.26%
	7:25	84	97		86.60%
	7:30	37	51		72.55%
	7:40	133	152		87.50%
	8:10	144	152		94.74%
	8:30	41	46		89.13%
	9:10	151	155		97.42%
	9:30	37	51		72.55%
	9:45	28	41		68.29%
	10:00	140	209		66.99%
	10:10	69	98		70.41%
	10:15	98	154		63.64%
	10:35	7	40		17.50%
	10:40	29	100		29.00%
	10:50	20	60		33.33%
	11:00	106	211		50.24%
3D	6:40	69	101		68.32%
	8:00	47	60		78.33%
	10:30	40	101		39.60%
	TOTAL:	2063	2799		73.70%	**Morning before show**

[Sue Denim]

Just to add on, I booked a group of us to go to a Sunday afternoon matinee of A:EG at a 2:50 showtime....only the first 3 rows of my showtime were available when I booked the tickets on Tuesday.

[Eric is Anxious]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/summer-2019-movie-box-office-social-media-analytics/

 

Quote

The summer season at the box office is upon us yet again, and to coincide with this supercharged time at theaters we have a brand-new set of tools and tracking features at our fingertips here at Boxoffice. They offer a wealth of new angles and viewpoints on the season and will be invaluable to our arsenal as pundits and color commentators.

 

Before we delve into the numbers, it’s important to note that when comparing social media data across platforms, no two services are the same, both in terms of usage and in terms of demographic breakdown. Instagram has more than double the users of Twitter, while Facebook has more than double the users of Instagram. The 13–17 demographic has a stronger foothold on Instagram than either of the two, while Twitter has a much higher percentage of its user base over 35 than either of the other two combined. Social media monitoring is by no means an exact science—it’s like trying to nail a bull’s-eye with a dart from a speeding car—but it is one of the strongest, fastest, and most cost-effective litmus tests of prospective moviegoers.

 

The Lion King was the most consistent performer over all three social media platforms tracked during the period in question. With 23 million fans in total, it led five of the six categories examined, missing out only on Facebook Engagement (calculated by Likes + Shares + Comments/Number of Fans). Not only did it lead most of the categories analyzed, it more than doubled the competition in three of the five it led. Based on these buzz numbers, there is little doubt that this is the film to beat outside of Avengers: Endgame this summer season. While the original Lion King was a massive success, grossing $312 million way back in 1994 and becoming the highest-grossing animated film of all time in its initial run (which it later raised to $423 million after Imax and 3-D rereleases), there was some doubt about how a fully CGI remade adaptation would fare. But these social media numbers have all but dispelled any concern about its performance.

 

Next up is Detective Pikachu, which showed very strong numbers across all our metrics; in fact, it’s the only film to lead a category other than The Lion King, the previously mentioned Engagement figure. I wrote an entire column dedicated to Detective Pikachu a few months back, after its first trailer just about broke social media. These numbers only further affirm my prediction from back then that its brand power and name recognition, coupled with the entire marketing machine, are going to make for a giant opening this May.

 

X-Men: Dark Phoenix had a strong showing on both Twitter and Facebook but lagged behind many of the other tentpoles on Instagram. It performed the strongest on Twitter, with the third-highest page and post likes across all films of interest. It saved its best performance for the Facebook Power metric, which is based on the following formula: Likes + Shares + Comments. The X-Men franchise saw a marked decline in its last outing, Apocalypse, versus Days of Future Past, and it remains to be seen whether Dark Phoenix will be able to buck the trend or continue the slide. These numbers are still largely positive, and while Dark Phoenixdoes face a lot of stiff competition, there is a very likely chance it will at least matche Apocalypse, which is nothing to scoff at ($65 million opening, $155 million total).

 

Aladdin presents a much more mixed bag than the preceding three films, and with its release just six weeks away (at press time), this could potentially be a warning sign. Its official Twitter page did not make any posts in our period of interest, which is surprising considering how close it is to release. On Facebook, it had a solid Power number, but its Engagement rank was among the lowest of the films tracked, and its Instagram numbers were middling at best. The original Aladdin was the second-highest-grossing animated film of all time after its 1992 release (coming within $1 million of becoming number one of all time at that point) and it is one of the most beloved titles in the Disney vault. However, this time around it is not performing nearly as well as its cousin The Lion King or other recent Disney live-action remakes such as Beauty and the Beast and Cinderella. Its lack of posts across the board at this late stage in the game is also somewhat perplexing.

 

Last up is Godzilla: King of the Monsters, which had a strong showing across all measured metrics—especially on Instagram, where it had the third-highest post likes over our two-week window of interest. Its predecessor had a mammoth $93 million opening and $200 million total, so the potential here is huge. This film could indeed break out this summer, and anything close to those aforementioned numbers would be a welcome gift for Warner Bros.

 

There are obviously quite a few promising titles missing from this report, including Spider-Man: Far from Home, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood, and Men in Black: International. The reason for their absence? They had few to no social media posts across our three monitored platforms during our two-week period of interest. All three are over two months away as of this writing, so it’s not an ominous sign by any means. But it is strange that potential blockbusters would go two full weeks without posts on major social media platforms; perhaps they are focusing their marketing efforts on different channels at this time.

 

Another salient point is that social media tends to underrepresent kids and family audiences for obvious reasons (not many toddlers on social media, yet). Also, in general, audiences over 35 are less active on Facebook and Instagram. The fact that Toy Story 4 and The Secret Life of Pets 2 are lower in the chart does not necessarily spell trouble, but it does indicate that they are missing the same interest among the 18–35 bracket as, say, a Lion King. The same goes for Hobbs & Shaw and John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum, which target older male audiences as their core demographic—not traditional social media powerhouses. 

 

The Lion King is clearly the film to beat this summer season (next to Endgame, of course) as of this column, and it will be interesting to circle back in a few months and take stock of these predictions and how they compared to actual results. My final takeaway from this analysis is surprise at the general lack of interaction with fans by studios for their films. Having massive $200 million blockbusters scheduled for release within a few months and millions of fans signed up for updates on said films, yet no posts in a two-week period on one or all three of the major social media platforms seems like a missed opportunity. More is not always better, but within such a crowded marketplace, anything that helps you stand out from the competition provides a strategic advantage.

Edited April 25, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Eric is Anxious]

By comparison last year, the social media buzz went like this:

 

1. Infinity War

2. Ocean's 8

3. Deadpool 2

4. Life of the Party

5. Uncle Drew

 

So yeah, it's not the most accurate when it comes to box office. Still fun to look at though.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

By comparison last year, the social media buzz went like this:

 

1. Infinity War

2. Ocean's 8

3. Deadpool 2

4. Life of the Party

5. Uncle Drew

 

So yeah, it's not the most accurate when it comes to box office. Still fun to look at though.

I feel like it's only a good predictor if the film is a ways away and it's showing a strong presence on social media/ a movie that is close to release and is getting nothing. 

 

Cause if I'm not mistaken, it's only during a certain period right? At least that's what the chart indicates/ And in that period above, Detective Pikachu is closest to release, The Lion King released a trailer and Dark Phoenix has also released a trailer (I think) so it would make sense for them to be leading the way.

[Eric is Anxious]

Just now, Nova said:

I feel like it's only a good predictor if the film is a ways away and it's showing a strong presence on social media/ a movie that is close to release and is getting nothing. 

 

Cause if I'm not mistaken, it's only during a certain period right? At least that's what the chart indicates/ And in that period above, Detective Pikachu is closest to release, The Lion King released a trailer and Dark Phoenix has also released a trailer (I think) so it would make sense for them to be leading the way.

That was the same thing for 2018, albeit a much wider gap of February 18-March 20. Stuff like Uncle Drew and Life of the Party had trailers out a couple days before February 18. It's also important to recognize that starpower is important to recognize, as social media stars like Bullock or Rihanna or Shaq or Kyrie can play a part in that social media pull likely have big social media pull and likely shared trailers/movie pages on their Facebook/Twitter profiles. McCarthy probably has a big Facebook following too.

[Biggestgeekever]

Hit 90% on MT

 

[excel1]

Alladin needs to unleash a whole new world upon us

[Rebeccas]

OMG are we seriously gonna have a #1 Endgame #2 Captain Marvel weekend lol

[Ledmonkey96]

took forever for that last theater Thursday to sell it's tickets but my theater is now completely sold out for Thursday.

[Eric is Anxious]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Detective Pikachu	277	211	170
	18 days	17 days	16 days
John Wick 3	157	135	110
	25 days	24 days	23 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	11	6	7
	46 days	45 days	44 days

 

 

Pikachu

Last 7 Days (22-16)

28% of Incredibles 2 (50.9M)

208% of The Grinch (140.9M)

60% of Dragon 3 (33M)

68% of Shazam (36.5M)

 

Day 28-16

40% of Incredibles 2 (72.5M)

251% of The Grinch (169.8M)

94% of Dragon 3 (51.7M)

 

Day 30-16

60% of Incredibles 2 (109.6M)

146% of Dragon 3 (80.3M)

 

Cumulative

35% of Incredibles 2 (63.3M)

132% of Dragon 3 (72.6M)

 

John Wick

Last 7 Days (29-23)

12% of Captain Marvel (18.6M)

 

Day 39-23

19% of Captain Marvel (29.7M)

 

Again, with Endgame sucking up all the hype, it's best to take these numbers with a grain of salt

[cdsacken]

33 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Alladin needs to unleash a whole new world upon us

Yes indeed it does. It better be good seriously. I can't take it being crappy like Dumbo.

[Tinalera]

I have to feel for those whi dont pay alot of attention to social media walking up opening weekend

 

"Oh the new avengers film! Look at all the showings. I ll grab a tick--- hmmm 7pmsold out how about 9 sold out.nope...what? 3 am showings sold out??? You guya are sold out till when??!!"

Edited April 25, 2019 by Tinalera
Added text

[Ledmonkey96]

3 hours till i do my final check and it's going to be pretty easy just counting the sold out shows.

[XXR & Friends]

4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Previews Thursday - Endgame Fandango Tracking - 8 Updates 

April 24: 19354
April 25: 21244 (+9.8%)

 

IW Equivalent Thursday: 76734

 

Fandango 24 Hour % = 91.155

 

MT
89.8% Avengers: Endgame

2.1% Captain Marvel

1.3% Shazam!

1.2% The Curse of La Llorona

1% Dumbo

 

 

Previews Thursday - Endgame Fandango Tracking - 12 Updates 

April 24: 33404

April 25: 36104 (+8.1)

 

Fandango 24 Hour % = 91.726

 

MT

90.8% Avengers: Endgame

1.8% Captain Marvel

1.2% Shazam!

1.1% The Curse of La Llorona

1% Breakthrough