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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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33 minutes ago, Menor said:

The one advantage Endgame has here is that it's a new story, which means probably a lot more rewatches than DH2. Other than that, to be honest, I have no idea how to predict legs when the OW is going so high

Yeah I didn’t particularly feel the need to see DH2 many times cause I had read the book like 4 times by then anyways 

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Avengers: Endgame Final Previews Status -- April 25, 2019 @ 5:30pm 

 

 

AMC Prime -- Avg. Ticket Price -- $16.42

 

6:00pm -- 205/205 -- SOLD OUT  
10:00pm -- 205/205 -- SOLD OUT

2:00am -- 170/205

 

 

IMAX 3D -- Avg. Ticket Price -- $16.42

 

6:30pm -- 151/151 -- SOLD OUT

10:30pm -- 151/151 -- SOLD OUT

2:30am -- 98/151 

 

 

Real 3D -- Avg. Ticket Price -- $14.47

 

6:15pm -- 60/60 -- SOLD OUT

6:45pm -- 60/60 -- SOLD OUT 

7:30pm -- 125/125 -- SOLD OUT

8:00pm -- 72/76

8:45pm --60/60 -- SOLD OUT  

9:45pm -- 44/44 -- SOLD OUT 

10:25pm -- 50/60

10:45pm -- 46/60 

11:30pm -- 95/125 

12:00am -- 53/76 
12:45am -- 30/60

1:50am -- 4/44

2:20am -- 3/60

 

 

Digital -- Avg. Ticket Price -- $10.97


6:00pm -- 76/76 -- SOLD OUT

6:10pm -- 44/44 -- SOLD OUT

6:20pm -- 125/125 -- SOLD OUT

7:00pm -- 147/147 -- SOLD OUT

7:10pm -- 44/44 -- SOLD OUT

7:15pm -- 76/76 -- SOLD OUT

7:45pm -- 60/60 -- SOLD OUT

7:50pm -- 44/44 -- SOLD OUT

8:15pm -- 44/44 -- SOLD OUT 

8:30pm -- 76/76 -- SOLD OUT 

9:00pm -- 144/147

9:30pm -- 44/44 -- SOLD OUT 

10:10pm -- 42/44

10:15pm -- 76/76 -- SOLD OUT 

10:20pm -- 120/125

10:40pm -- NEW -- 3/44

11:00pm -- 136/147

11:10pm -- 38/44 

11:15pm -- 60/76

11:20pm -- NEW -- 2/44

11:45pm -- 47/60

11:50pm -- 28/44

12:15am -- 29/44

12:30am -- 59/76

1:00am -- 111/147
1:30am -- NEW -- 2/44

1:45am -- 21/44

2:10am -- 27/76

2:15am -- 11/44

2:25am -- 58/147

 

 

Fan Event -- Ticket Price -- $20.00 

 

5:00pm -- 147/147 -- SOLD OUT 

 

 

 

TOTALS: 50 show times, 3623 tickets sold ( +327!! from April 24 @ 8pm) out of 4378 available (82.76%)

Estimated Gross: $49,235

 

Captain Marvel -- 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%) -- final tracking on Wednesday, March 6 @ 6:30pm CST
Infinity War -- 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%) -- final tracking on Wednesday, April 25 @ 8:30pm CST

 

Tickets sold represents 317.8% of the tickets sold for Captain Marvel & 147.9% of the tickets sold for Infinity War through final tracking. 

 

 

Additional Notes: This will be my last update until I run Friday numbers after I see Endgame (t-minus 90 minutes!!). My prediction for previews is $62 million. 

 

Edited by VenomXXR
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1 hour ago, Menor said:

Also, my Cinemark has 36 showings for tonight. I don't have time to count seats rn but there is a grand total of ONE non-wheelchair seat left. I was skeptical of the preview record last week, but I'm well and truly on board now.

That seat is gone. Nothing but wheelchair seats left now.

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So out of morbid curiousity, I just decided to do a seat count for tonight of my local  theatre that ISN'T showing Endgame this weekend. They have sold a grand total of 20 tickets so far for tonight across 19 different movie showings. If you remove Captain Marvel's 14 tickets, they have sold 6. Two for Breakthrough, two for La LLorona, and 2 for Missing Link. Of the 19 showings, 15 of them haven't sold a single ticket.

 

Meanwhile, the other two theatres under a 25 minute driving distance from it are showing Endgame almost primarily the entire night, and are at near capacity for every showing. I'm baffled.

 

 

Edited by dakus
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Just now, dakus said:

So out of morbid curiousity, I just decided to do a seat count for tonight of my local  theatre that ISN'T showing Endgame this weekend. They have sold a grand total of 20 tickets so far for tonight across 19 different movie showings. If you remove Captain Marvel's 14 tickets, they have sold 6. Two for Breakthrough, two for La LLorona, and 2 for Missing Link. Of the 19 showings, 15 of them haven't sold a single ticket.

 

Meanwhile, the other two theatres within a 20 minute driving distance are showing Endgame almost primarily the entire night, and are at near capacity for every showing. I'm baffled.

 

 

What in the world is that theatre manager doing???

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9 minutes ago, JB33 said:

What in the world is that theatre manager doing???

I think I have figured it out actually. I'm pretty sure they have some sort of deal with the nearby Cineplex (theyre about a 10-15 minute drive apart) where they 'take turns' airing blockbusters. Like i'm near positive the Cineplex skipped Captain Marvel, and it looks like they're probably skipping Pikachu too. Meanwhile, the Landmark skipped Us, and is currently skipping Endgame.

 

I'm going to keep my eye on it, and if the Cineplex doesn't air Pikachu (they still don't have any showtimes up), and one of the two theatres skips Godzilla i'll know that must be what's happening. 

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2 minutes ago, dakus said:

I think I have figured it out actually. I'm pretty sure they have some sort of deal with the nearby Cineplex (theyre about a 10 minute drive apart) where they 'take turns' airing blockbusters. Like i'm near positive the Cineplex skipped Captain Marvel, and it looks like they're probably skipping Pikachu too. Meanwhile, the Landmark skipped Us, and is currently skipping Endgame.

 

I'm going to keep my eye on it, and if the Cineplex doesn't air Pikachu (they still don't have any showtimes), and one of the two theatres skips Godzilla i'll know that must be what's happening. 

Ok that makes sense. I couldn't bring myself to believe that the Landmark theatre just decided "Nah" on Endgame. There HAD to be a reason. 

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16 minutes ago, dakus said:

I think I have figured it out actually. I'm pretty sure they have some sort of deal with the nearby Cineplex (theyre about a 10-15 minute drive apart) where they 'take turns' airing blockbusters. Like i'm near positive the Cineplex skipped Captain Marvel, and it looks like they're probably skipping Pikachu too. Meanwhile, the Landmark skipped Us, and is currently skipping Endgame.

 

I'm going to keep my eye on it, and if the Cineplex doesn't air Pikachu (they still don't have any showtimes up), and one of the two theatres skips Godzilla i'll know that must be what's happening. 

That still doesn't make any sense. So they take turns losing money? Surely, the money they make showing a movie that another theater is showing more than offsets the money they lose having another theater steal customers from them?

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10 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

That still doesn't make any sense. So they take turns losing money? Surely, the money they make showing a movie that another theater is showing more than offsets the money they lose having another theater steal customers from them?

It doesn't make much sense, but it makes way more sense then any other alternative.

 

I guess they feel that maybe the increased revenue they get from the traffic being funneled to one theatre during the time they air the blockbusters offsets the revenue lost during the time they aren't airing them? Especially because you can keep the theatre relatively short-staffed during the downtime, reducing the overhead costs?

 

What wouldn't make sense is the wildcard factor of the third theatre (a Landmark) in the neighboring town, which is only around a 15 minute drive away from the Cineplex, because it would surely siphon some traffic too. I might have to take a closer look to see if it skips anything important in the coming months.

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1 hour ago, dakus said:

I think I have figured it out actually. I'm pretty sure they have some sort of deal with the nearby Cineplex (theyre about a 10-15 minute drive apart) where they 'take turns' airing blockbusters. Like i'm near positive the Cineplex skipped Captain Marvel, and it looks like they're probably skipping Pikachu too. Meanwhile, the Landmark skipped Us, and is currently skipping Endgame.

 

I'm going to keep my eye on it, and if the Cineplex doesn't air Pikachu (they still don't have any showtimes up), and one of the two theatres skips Godzilla i'll know that must be what's happening. 

Which means they might be owned by same guy. Makes alot of sense really. Keep the big movie atmosphere at one and at the other a more chilled atmosphere for people who want to watch a different movie.

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Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 5:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL theaters with six or less seats left)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

158

347

3718

30373

87.76%

NOTE:  Wheelchair slots and wheelchair assistant seats are NOT counted in the sellout or seat chart totals - if the only seats left are a wheelchair slot or wheelchair assistant seat, it is treated as a sellout.

 

Total Sellouts Added Since 1pm:               79

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:            14  (includes 13 non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Added Added Since 1pm:      102

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:                  1407

 

1.6566x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [64.61m]
1.3850x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [54.01m]

2.6909x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.                       [67.81m]
2.6813x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.                          [49.87m]
3.7670x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                                     [53.11m]
3.5014x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.                    [53.57m]
4.7355x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man & the Wasp at stop of tracking.            [54.46m]
5.4454x as many tickets sold as Venom at stop of tracking.                                 [54.45m]

2.5258x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.                     [52.28m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

======

 

More detailed Final comps (Spoilered for space):

Spoiler

 

IW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

59

182

1995

15159

86.84%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):          878

 

BP:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

26

136

3377

11481

70.59%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):         1135

 

DP2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

169

8357

16490

49.32%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):        1262

 

Solo:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

5

143

7732

13521

42.81%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):         486

 

JW2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

147

7487

13715

45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

AM&tW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

114

6515

11120

41.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

EG (adj)*:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

158

347

2658

24465

89.14%

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for the movies above this stat block

 

Total Sellouts Added Since 1pm:               79

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:            14  (includes 13 non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Added Added Since 1pm:      102

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:                    999

 

EG (exact)*:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

135

292

1927

20159

90.44%

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town as Infinity War for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

Total Sellouts Added Since 1pm:               63

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:            13 (all non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Added Added Since 1pm:      n/a

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:                    685

 

==========

 

Venom:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

127

8736

13229

33.96%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1012

 

EG (adj-v)*:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

158

347

3503

27969

87.48%

*EM (adj-v) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theater that I did not have access during Venom's run.

 

Total Sellouts Added Since 1pm:               79

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:            14  (includes 13 non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Added Added Since 1pm:      102

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:                  1284

 

==========

 

Captain Marvel:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

8

216

9439

19992

52.79%

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, though it is playing in a few more theaters locally.

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             1520

 

 

WEEKEND INFO:

Fri:   3 sellouts/549 showings (+1/+17) [IW: 2/391] [EG EXACT: 3/453]

Sat:  3 sellouts/544 showings (+2/+17) [IW: 2/389] [EG EXACT: 3/452]

Sun: 0 sellouts/515 showings (+0/+16) [IW: 0/321] [EG EXACT: 0/425]

 

Sellouts:  158/347  (+79/+14) [2D: 137/292 (+65/+13) | 3D: 21/55 (+14/+1)]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

 

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 285 [+1] screens  [IW: 126]

 

100%:     158* [+79] [IW: 59]

90-95%:   26  [-40]  [IW: 13]

80-89%:   35  [-13]  [IW: 26]

70-79%:   34  [-1]    [IW: 18]

60-69%:   15  [-12]  [IW: 7]

50-59%:   12  [-3]    [IW: 3]

40-49%:     7  [+2]   [IW: 3]

30-39%:     1  [-2]    [IW: 1]

20-29%:     1  [-6]    [IW: 0]

10-19%:     3  [+1]   [IW: 0]

0-9%:         2  [-4]    [IW: 0]

 

* includes nine sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

 

============

 

For the record, 57 showings for a total of 171 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

101

347

3889

30373

87.20%

 

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 5:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL theaters with six or less seats left)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

158

347

3718

30373

87.76%

 

 

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Just made this post in the Weekend Thread, but I think it's important to be here as well.  Sorry not sorry for the xpost. :)

 

====

 

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

158

347

3718

30373

87.76%

 

1.6566x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night. [64.61m]
1.3850x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town. [54.01m]

2.6909x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.                       [67.81m]
2.6813x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.                          [49.87m]
3.7670x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.                                     [53.11m]
3.5014x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.                    [53.57m]
4.7355x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man & the Wasp at stop of tracking.            [54.46m]
5.4454x as many tickets sold as Venom at stop of tracking.                                 [54.45m]

2.5258x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.                     [52.28m]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

Throwing out the exact theater comp since EG is playing in far more theaters than IW.  Also throwing out DP2 as that didn't have 3D and it over-performed locally.  And CM over-performed here locally as well, though not to the degree that DP2 did.

 

So, three possible worlds:

 

World One (BP/IW comp):                               66.21m 

World Two (Solo/Venom/JW2/AM2 comps):   53.95m

World Three (mid-point of previous comps):  60.08m

 

Let's go with 60.08m, FINAL ANSWER.

 

Probably wrong.  Actually almost certainly wrong as projections break down at the extreme.  But that's the number I'll be happy with if I see it when it comes to comps.  

 

And if I see 55m or so, then I know that IW and BP really need to be nuked for future comps, as they over-predicted CM as well, when everything else was much close.

 

Find out soon enuf. :)

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10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Let's go with 60.08m, FINAL ANSWER.

Very much in line with what I estimated based on Fandango Pulse comparison between Endgane and Infinity War. If I had to pick a number I'd say $60M

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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 5:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL theaters with six or less seats left)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

158

347

3718

30373

87.76%

NOTE:  Wheelchair slots and wheelchair assistant seats are NOT counted in the sellout or seat chart totals - if the only seats left are a wheelchair slot or wheelchair assistant seat, it is treated as a sellout.

 

For the record, 57 showings for a total of 171 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

101

347

3889

30373

87.20%

 

 

4 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I'll throw my hat in at 188

@Porthos I'm adjusting my number, as I thought the 79 included adjusted when it's actual.

4 hours ago, Stewart said:

115 currently

 

169 final

 

 

Actual:

 

 

Final?  Well about that....

4 hours ago, pepsa said:

168

 

Do I use the Price is right over = bust rules? YiBe40t.png YiBe40t.png

 

Nah. 👍

 

 

 

Got "One Dollar Under'ed", @Stewart  Otherwise you were so close to the Double Showcase. ;)

 

4 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Based on 79 sellouts now out of 333 shows and the number that IW increased on the final day and the fact how little people tend to like the seats in the first row to the farthest right and left, I'd say around 199.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Tinalera said:

121

If this was the pure sellout guess instead of the adjusted one, you would have come pretty close.  Don't know which one it was, so I'll leave it to the side for now.

 

====


Thanks for all the guesses everyone.  Was fun seeing them. 👍

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14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Actual:

 

 

Final?  Well about that....

 

Do I use the Price is right over = bust rules? YiBe40t.png YiBe40t.png

 

Nah. 👍

 

 

 

Got "One Dollar Under'ed", @Stewart  Otherwise you were so close to the Double Showcase. ;)

 

 

If this was the pure sellout guess instead of the adjusted one, you would have come pretty close.  Don't know which one it was, so I'll leave it to the side for now.

 

====


Thanks for all the guesses everyone.  Was fun seeing them. 👍

Ill be honest and say i wasnt thinking that distinction so i would say my intent leaned towards adjusted....

 

But ill take a trophy for being close to pure lol 😉

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So the way AKValley's Fandango Pulse tracker so consistently has AIW capping out around 3000 for the top Avengers: Endgame number made me (and some others here @Porthos @VenomXXR @Menor @Stewart) think there is some kind of cap and that certainly seems to be the case. Here is the TOTAL number of units given each hour for all movies for this week so far...

 

Look how often it is capping out at either 3000, or 4000, no way that is random chance. Clearly the number of units sold would actually have been way above those number in some instances. There are a few hours where it does go above 4000, so I'm betting that (for some reason), each hour either caps out at 3,000, 4000, or 5,000. If its below that we see the actual number, if it's above the cap for the hour we are missing some units.

 

Of course this means that Endgame has been doing even better in the last couple of days than we thought. :ohmygod:

 

EDIT: Note to say that since I probably wasn't clear, I'm sure it's Fandango Pulse itself that is capping out, rather than AKValley's scraper.

 

22/04/19 00:00 2738
22/04/19 01:00 1105
22/04/19 02:00 720
22/04/19 03:00 431
22/04/19 04:00 295
22/04/19 05:00 465
22/04/19 06:00 1363
22/04/19 07:00 2905
22/04/19 08:00 3843
22/04/19 09:00 3814
22/04/19 10:00 2886
22/04/19 11:00 3912
22/04/19 12:00 3997
22/04/19 13:00 4010
22/04/19 14:00 4080
22/04/19 15:00 3867
22/04/19 16:00 4119
22/04/19 17:00 3787
22/04/19 18:00 4000
22/04/19 19:00 4000
22/04/19 20:00 4000
22/04/19 21:00 4052
22/04/19 22:00 4254
22/04/19 23:00 4230
23/04/19 00:00 4072
23/04/19 01:00 2618
23/04/19 02:00 1397
23/04/19 03:00 796
23/04/19 04:00 696
23/04/19 05:00 1182
23/04/19 06:00 2638
23/04/19 07:00 2800
23/04/19 08:00 1862
23/04/19 09:00 3931
23/04/19 10:00 3839
23/04/19 11:00 4000
23/04/19 12:00 3000
23/04/19 13:00 4000
23/04/19 14:00 4000
23/04/19 15:00 3000
23/04/19 16:00 3000
23/04/19 17:00 4000
23/04/19 18:00 4000
23/04/19 19:00 3000
23/04/19 20:00 4000
23/04/19 21:00 4000
23/04/19 22:00 3000
23/04/19 23:00 4360
24/04/19 00:00 4286
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Edited by stfletch
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