The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Jonwo]

Both Pikachu and John Wick 3 are great alternatives to Endgame. 

[stfletch]

10 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

By how much?

A little over 3x higher.

[Perfundle]

10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Just OoC if Endgame 2nd weekend somehow drops to 150 and it has that same drop in it's third weekend, would you still consider Pika Pika to be the likely loser of it's OW?

If that happened, I would argue that since superhero movies always drop harder on their second weekend than their third (outside of holiday releases like Aquaman), the fact that Endgame dropped the same on its third weekend indicates that DP impacted it a lot, and to make that big of an impact DP would have exceeded the $63 million that you have Endgame making.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Perfundle

[Cappoedameron]

10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Honestly that weekend's pretty dead and what's there isn't really harmful to John Wick 3 at all.

JW still probably looking at 3rd place but it's take in is not bad for an R rated film.

[JB33]

Last time the calendar was the same as this, Thor: The Dark World released on November 8, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire on November 22, and Frozen went wide on Wednesday, November 27 (released in 1 theatre on the 22nd).

 

Even though Frozen 2 is going to be an absolute juggernaut this year, there was indeed room for WB to put one of their tentpoles here. Detective Pikachu wouldn't have been a good candidate, as the audience would overlap with F2's, but I think Godzilla: King of the Monsters would have played really well on the 8th.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Just OoC if Endgame 2nd weekend somehow drops to 150 and it has that same drop in it's third weekend, would you still consider Pika Pika to be the likely loser of it's OW?

Before my edit, I didn't say it was 'likely' that EG would beat Pika, just that it was more likely to beat Pika than Wick 3 beating its tracking by a similar percentage that Wick 2 did.

 

Then I decided all of that was too much twaddle and just stripped it all out as being unimportant.

 

---

 

As it stands, if EG does 150 this coming weekend, I think it is more likely than not that Pika gets its OW.  Maybe not by a lot, but it shifts around from 50/50 (which is my current gut guess) to something closer to 60/40 or 65/35.  Mostly depends on reviews, buzz, and all those other fun things which are still up in the air.

[Minnale101]

Detective pikachu did 332 tickets yesterday 

 

right now for today it’s at 541 tickets in fandango pulse 

 

noticeable jump. Shoutout sonic lol

[Cappoedameron]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Before my edit, I didn't say it was 'likely' that EG would beat Pika, just that it was more likely to beat Pika than Wick 3 beating its tracking by a similar percentage that Wick 2 did.

 

Then I decided all of that was too much twaddle and just stripped it all out as being unimportant.

 

---

 

As it stands, if EG does 150 this coming weekend, I think it is more likely than not that Pika gets its OW.  Maybe not by a lot, but it shifts around from 50/50 (which is my current gut guess) to something closer to 60/40 or 65/35.  Mostly depends on reviews, buzz, and all those other fun things which are still up in the air.

I called it would be close between Endgame and Pikachu. It's gonna be quite the exciting battle, I will say that whomever wins that battle is likely taking the #1 spot till Aladdin even if Aladdin will flop in the long run.

[Mulder]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Before my edit, I didn't say it was 'likely' that EG would beat Pika, just that it was more likely to beat Pika than Wick 3 beating its tracking by a similar percentage that Wick 2 did.

 

Then I decided all of that was too much twaddle and just stripped it all out as being unimportant.

 

---

 

As it stands, if EG does 150 this coming weekend, I think it is more likely than not that Pika gets its OW.  Maybe not by a lot, but it shifts around from 50/50 (which is my current gut guess) to something closer to 60/40 or 65/35.  Mostly depends on reviews, buzz, and all those other fun things which are still up in the air.

Makes sense. As always your insight is appreciated Porthos.

[Cappoedameron]

10 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Both Pikachu and John Wick 3 are great alternatives to Endgame. 

JW3 for people that are age appropriate. Pikachu is an alternative for every age group.

[Ledmonkey96]

4 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

JW3 for people that are age appropriate. Pikachu is an alternative for every age group.

Well up to mid-30's at least. Past that and it's unlikely many played it since they'd have been late  teens to 20 when it came out.

[Cappoedameron]

2 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Well up to mid-30's at least. Past that and it's unlikely many played it since they'd have been late  teens to 20 when it came out.

That's where their kids come into play.

[Mulder]

4 hours ago, Mulder said:

Mid-day at my theater (Just Thursdays)-

 

Aladdin-43 (+2),  7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-110 (+11), 6 Screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-48 (+1), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

Final count at my theater for today (Just Thursdays)-

Aladdin-44 (+1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-104 (-6, not sure if I miscounted earlier and I didn't realize it or if people cancelled seats), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-48, 4 Screening (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

Total gains today for Aladdin from last night were 18 tickets, Detective Pikachu sold at least 5 tickets today (Yet lost 6? But I might have miscounted earlier), and John Wick sold one ticket today.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Just OoC if Endgame 2nd weekend somehow drops to 150 and it has that same drop in it's third weekend, would you still consider Pika Pika to be the likely loser of it's OW?

150 is the very low end for end game. Good chance it's 175ish and IW dropped 45.9% the next week.

 

175 this weekend and a 45% drop for weekend #3  is 96 million.

 

175 is not the high end of the range either.

 

Edited May 1, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

38 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Well up to mid-30's at least. Past that and it's unlikely many played it since they'd have been late  teens to 20 when it came out.

Yep my sister was born in 1980 and had zero interest in Pokemon nor does her 10 year old daughter. They won't be seeing it. I will but without the family. My 4 year old thinks they look creepy as does the wife. Not as much as Sonic but still.

[Minnale101]

12 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Yep my sister was born in 1980 and had zero interest in Pokemon nor does her 10 year old daughter. They won't be seeing it. I will but without the family. My 4 year old thinks they look creepy as does the wife. Not as much as Sonic but still.

Yeah 1980 she was like 18-19 when Pokémon craze happen

 

this mostly late 80s and 90s kids

[Cappoedameron]

24 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

150 is the very low end for end game. Good chance it's 175ish and IW dropped 45.9% the next week.

 

175 this weekend and a 45% drop for weekend #3  is 96 million.

 

175 is not the high end of the range either.

 

45.9% drop with Life of the Party and Breaking In. There's a very big difference between those two movies and Detective Pikachu. Endgame could be looking at a -50/-55% drop with Pikachu.

[cdsacken]

13 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Yeah 1980 she was like 18-19 when Pokémon craze happen

 

this mostly late 80s and 90s kids

Indeed I liked it thanks to video games and was born in 85. 

[Minnale101]

15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Indeed I liked it thanks to video games and was born in 85. 

I was born 1997. Completely missed when Pokémon was a worldwide phenomenon

 

i think first 2 weeks of Pokémon go felt like it was a phenomenon for my era 

Edited May 1, 2019 by Minnale101

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	6617	7352	10.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                       76

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.3577x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 9 days before release.           [JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

.3343x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 9 days before release. [FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (T-9)                 109  tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/111 showings   |   9488/11263 seats left  | 15.76% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (T-9)     71  tickets sold today      [0 sellouts/64 showings     |    5670/6305 seats left   | 10.07% sold]

FB2 (T-9)                 112  tickets sold that day  [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  11388/13377 seats left | 14.87% sold] 

Pika (FBadj)** (T-9)      71 tickets sold today      [0 sellouts/64 showings     |    6153/6818 seats left   |   9.75% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

Edited May 1, 2019 by Porthos