The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

Idk I get being invested in how movies do. I was bummed when G-2014 and BvS had terrible legs and when JL and Solo flopped I flat out left the forums for a few months. If ((hopefully not)) KoTM goes under 60 million OW I'll probably take a break again. But to deny the reality in front of you is something else entirely.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Idk I get being invested in how movies do. I was bummed when G-2014 and BvS had terrible legs and when JL and Solo flopped I flat out left the forums for a few months. If ((hopefully not)) KoTM goes under 60 million OW I'll probably take a break again. But to deny the reality in front of you is something else entirely.

 

Nobody wants that to happen since i would probably have a Godzilla-sized meltdown on these forums.

[DAJK]

So basically Pika will probably do what people (minus the stans) thought it would do after the first trailer, i.e 65/180 type deal give or take a few mils either way

[Old Spice]

Pika Salt Lake update, 7:30 PM EST. Cinemark Sugarhouse luxury, all shows 2D.

 

Thursday May 9th

4:00 PM 9/62

6:40 PM 23/62 (up from 14 three days ago)

9:20 PM 10/62

Total 42/186 22.6%

 

Friday May 10th

9:00 AM 2/104

11:35 6/104

2:10 14/104

4:45 17/104

7:20 60/104 (up from 46 three days ago)

10:00 4/104

Total 103/624 16.5%

 

Slow but steady she goes. Those mid-evening shows both nights will undoubtedly get additional screens, but every movie here is still operating in the shadow of the Deathstar known as EG. I know multiple people who have already seen it two or more times with plans to go back for more. (I'll be going back for a second viewing this weekend as well.)

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Pikachu comparison roundup:

 

Pikachu has currently sold 25 tickets 6 days before previews 

 

Venom - 4 days before previews - 55

 

Christopher Robin - 2 days before previews - 35

 

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation - 4 days before previews - 25

2 days before previews - 35

 

Ant Man and The Wasp - 4 days before previews - 102

5 before release - 148

 

Coco - 4 days before previews - 22

Coco - 2 days before previews - 45

 

Wonder - 4 days before previews - 16 

 

Homecoming - 5 days before release/4 days before previews - 145

Homecoming - 2 days before previews - 211

 

 

This is a pretty solid start but for me to join the $70M+ OW, I think Pikachu needs around 35/60 for the Sunday/Tuesday, as for now it seems right in line for $50M-$60M.

 

[Cappoedameron]

 

When the film exceeds box office performance.

Edited May 4, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Cooper Legion]

21 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 5/2/19 (End of Thurs)
1	91%	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.3%	UglyDolls
3	1.3%	The Intruder
4	1.1%	Long Shot
5	1.1%	Captain Marvel    

A huge shakeup as all 3 new releases enter, pushing CM to 5th. AEG is actually at 94.5% of non-opener tickets, but we don’t know what portion they were taking up yesterday. This seems pretty compatible with the expected 9% drop to me.

17:00 Pacific 5/3/19 (End of 2nd Fri) 

1	83.6%	Avengers: Endgame
2	3.7%	Long Shot
3	3.2%	UglyDolls
4	2.8%	The Intruder
5	1.4%	Captain Marvel

Pretty much as expected, new releases are higher than yesterday since they’ve been available for the full day, MCU still looming in 1 and 5.    

 

AEG goes from 94.5% of holdovers to 92.6, CM goes from 1.14% to 1.55%.

[Cappoedameron]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 5/3/19 (End of 2nd Fri) 

1	83.6%	Avengers: Endgame
2	3.7%	Long Shot
3	3.2%	UglyDolls
4	2.8%	The Intruder
5	1.4%	Captain Marvel

Pretty much as expected, new releases are higher than yesterday since they’ve been available for the full day, MCU still looming in 1 and 5.    

 

AEG goes from 94.5% of holdovers to 92.6, CM goes from 1.14% to 1.55%.

Poor Shazam.

[Nova]

@Deep Wang do you think we could get an update on Pika, Wick and Aladdin on Monday (or even next Thursday) I know you can only ask but figured I’d ask ahead of time. 

 

It would be helpful to track the movies since Fandango wants to break every week. Especially for Wick and Aladdin. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Nova

[Tinalera]

5 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Poor Shazam.

I think shazam sequel will do more business than original. Depending on window it was well received and good wom and people imo will attend it being a known quality. I think streaming/dvd will increase appetite for sequel

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Endgame is strong at my theater tonight. Over 80% capacity from 7pm-12am.

[Nova]

I’m too lazy to go back in the thread 

 

Detective Pikachu Thursday Night 

4PM: 27/142 

9:30PM: 51/142 

 

3D

6:45PM: 45/142 

Total: 123 

 

John Wick 3 Thursday night 

7PM: 76/142 

10PM: 6/142 

Total: 82 

 

[Cap]

Pika Pika - John Wick 3 - Aladdin

Thursday Previews

 

Southern Maine Cinemagic (Three Theater Chain)

 

Movie	5/1	5/3	Total	Percentage	+ Sold Seats
Pika Pika	11	22	994	2.21%	11
John Wick 3	2	4	758	0.53%	2
Aladdin	0	4	1336	0.30%	0

 

Good News: Pika Pika and John Wick 3 doubled their sales.  Bad news, still not over 5%.  No additional screens added.

 

Lincoln Square 13

 

Movie	5/1	5/3	Total	Percentage	+ Sold Seats	+ Add Seats
Pika Pika	155	359	951	37.75%	204	297
John Wick 3	313	337	935	36.04%	24	341
Aladdin	277	325	1554	20.91%	48	0

 

Pika Pika added a Dolby 7:15PM

John Wick added a STD 7:00PM

 

Full Chart:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8

Spoiler

Lincoln Square	5/1	5/3	Total	Percentage
	Pika Pika - Thursday, May 9, 2019
STD 4:00PM	18	25	218	8.25%
STD 6:45PM	80	89	218	36.69%
DOLBY 7:15PM	N/A	171	297	57.57%
3D 9:45PM	57	74	218	26.14%
TOTAL	155	359	951	37.75%
	John Wick 3 - Thursday, May 16, 2019
STD 7:00PM	N/A	1	341	0.30%
DOLBY 7:00PM	228	239	297	80.47%
DOLBY 10:00PM	85	97	297	32.66%
TOTAL	313	337	935	36.04%
	Aladdin - Thursday, May 23, 2019
IMAX 7:00PM	169	188	480	39.17%
IMAX 10:15PM	24	28	480	5.83%
DOLBY 6:00PM	66	81	297	27.27%
DOLBY 9:15PM	18	28	297	9.43%
TOTAL	277	325	1554	20.91%

 

And Cursory AEG Update from my IMAX Theater:

 

- The theater was running about 75% full after 7PM

- IMAX Screen is about 80% Sold Out for the Weekend.  Only front row available.  

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

Endgame is strong at my theater tonight. Over 80% capacity from 7pm-12am.

What was it like during that timespan last Friday?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

What was it like during that timespan last Friday?

 

Opening Friday? Over 90% with about 50% more shows lol

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

I think shazam sequel will do more business than original. Depending on window it was well received and good wom and people imo will attend it being a known quality. I think streaming/dvd will increase appetite for sequel

I imagine they’ll do Black Adam first 

[Minnale101]

Thanks for the updates in theatres. Ran out of likes and thanks to use for today 

[stfletch]

Final Update  of my table showing Fandango Pulse Sales of 2nd Weekend Factor between AEG vs AIW as of Thursday-End. I would have updated to including Friday numbers and made updated estimates for Saturday and Sunday through the weekend but... Pulse went down AGAIN. So this is what we have....

 

		2019-04-22	2019-04-23	2019-04-24	2019-04-25
		MON	TUE	WED	THU
2019-04-26	FRI	3.06	2.30	1.62	1.41
2019-04-27	SAT	3.08	2.49	1.77	1.60
2019-04-28	SUN	3.45	2.77	2.01	1.80

 

The factors seem to drop about 10% further going into last days or so I'm gonna drop the Sat and Sun number a little correspondingly to get final "day before" factors of:

FRI	1.41
SAT	1.60	x	0.9	=	1.44
SUN	1.80	x	0.9	x	0.9	=	1.45

Which if we apply to the Infinity War 2nd Weekend totals we get:

	AIW		Factor		AEG Est.
FRI	$31,456,749	x	1.41	=	$44,342,675
SAT	$46,676,705	x	1.44	=	$67,044,891
SUN	$36,644,356	x	1.45	=	$53,282,680
TOTAL	$114,777,810				$164,670,245

 

I think this should be pretty close to the weekend total, but we'll see. Friday value seems to be pretty close to the early estimates from @RtheEnd and @Charlie Jatinder are giving us which gives me confidence this presale comparison to AIW is pretty indicative.

[charlie Jatinder]

So, guys what are we looking at for Pika Pika?

[Biggestgeekever]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So, guys what are we looking at for Pika Pika?

Get back to me on Saturday morning.

 

Spoiler

I think $70M+ is still on the table, but I'd like to see how fandango presales look around Wednesday. This feels like such a wild card.