The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Lol at the Deadline prediction

 

They really don’t want to be responsible for another TS4 situation, but that’s ridiculous hahah

Well, it's not a predication, per se, but saying "if tracking is as wrong as it has been DON'T PANIC".  But even as a Don't Panic number, it's a ridiculous one to throw out.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

@Porthos @filmlover first bingo of the weekend. “Deadline under predicts by 20m”

Something tells me that Bingo card (please share it once the weekend thread opens lmao) will be completely filled out by the end weekend. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Something tells me that Bingo card (please share it once the weekend thread opens lmao) will be completely filled out by the end weekend. 

I've seen it already. 

 

I, unlike some chattermouths over in Taika's camp, know how to respect NDAs. 👍

Edited July 16, 2019 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

When you're $60-$80M too high for Toys 4, and then $60M too low for Spidey...you have to think their blockbuster tracking model is broken...so they give themselves $40M of "buffer" this time, so they'll only be $20M off either way (or maybe their $40M range will actually hit:)...

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

When you're $60-$80M too high for Toys 4, and then $60M too low for Spidey...you have to think their blockbuster tracking model is broken...so they give themselves $40M of "buffer" this time, so they'll only be $20M off either way (or maybe their $40M range will actually hit:)...

[XXR vs XXR]

23 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 3 Days to Previews

 

 

36 show times, 779 (+89) tickets sold out of 2898 available (26.88%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 2 Days to Previews

 

 

40 show times, 938 (+159) tickets sold out of 3247 (+349) available (28.89%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

 

 

Better jump than I expected. I was modeling a 50% increase in tickets sold over the previous 24 hours and got a nearly 79% increase. 

Edited July 16, 2019 by VenomXXR

[TalismanRing]

Local NYC 

TLK:  444/3228 = 13.75% (July 16: TUES: 4:30pm)  - 12 showings 

 

TUES Comps

 

ALADDIN - Tues 12pm - 98/1242 =7.89%

TOY STORY 4: 4PM TUES  - 165/2049 = 8.05% 

PETS2 (TUES 4pm) -  38/771 = 4.92%

TLK 2.69x TS4

TLK 4.53x Aladdin

TLK 11.68x Pets 2

 

Wed & Thur comps of other recent movies

 

TOY STORY 4: 7:40PM WED - 233/2049 = 11.37%

SHAZAM  - WED Afternoon -  129 / 2229 = 5.78%

SHAZAM - THUR 3:30pm -  187 / 2229 = 8.3%

GODZILLA2 - Wed 7:45pm  - 135/ 1915 = 7.04%

GODZILLA -Thur 3:30pm -  204 / 2150 = 9.488%
 

Edited July 16, 2019 by TalismanRing

[keysersoze123]

55 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Local NYC 

TLK:  444/3228 = 13.75% (July 16: TUES: 4:30pm)  - 12 showings 

 

TUES Comps

 

ALADDIN - Tues 12pm - 98/1242 =7.89%

TOY STORY 4: 4PM TUES  - 165/2049 = 8.05% 

PETS2 (TUES 4pm) -  38/771 = 4.92%

TLK 2.69x TS4

TLK 4.53x Aladdin

TLK 11.68x Pets 2

 

Wed & Thur comps of other recent movies

 

TOY STORY 4: 7:40PM WED - 233/2049 = 11.37%

SHAZAM  - WED Afternoon -  129 / 2229 = 5.78%

SHAZAM - THUR 3:30pm -  187 / 2229 = 8.3%

GODZILLA2 - Wed 7:45pm  - 135/ 1915 = 7.04%

GODZILLA -Thur 3:30pm -  204 / 2150 = 9.488%
 

All horrible numbers. How do Blockbusters do? Any numbers for Spidey or Cap Marvel?

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

TLK 2.69x TS4

TLK 4.53x Aladdin

TLK 11.68x Pets 2

 

 

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

All horrible numbers. How do Blockbusters do? Any numbers for Spidey or Cap Marvel?

 

Everything's relative. Under no definition I am aware of is 2.69x TS4 horrible,

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Everything's relative. Under no definition I am aware of is 2.69x TS4 horrible,

if its too small then its within margin of error 🙂 % matter only when its significant. I am still finding it hard to digest movie opening to 200m while theaters are like 13% full !!!! I am used to seeing more sellouts

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if its too small then its within margin of error 🙂 % matter only when its significant. I am still finding it hard to digest movie opening to 200m while theaters are like 13% full !!!! I am used to seeing more sellouts

I track plenty of theaters that aren't as busy as others. It could just be that @TalismanRing's local theater isn't as busy as some. Or they buy later in the pre-sale window than other places.

 

Doesn't make the data any less valid if it is consistent.  Well, consistent-ish.  

 

Like, none of my theaters would crack a national Top 20.  Century Arden might not even crack a Top 50 (I honestly don't know where it ranks, but I figure the 14 screens holds it back quite a bit).  But it's the consistency from film to film, genre to genre that matters.

 

Sure, theaters will wax and wane as time goes on.  But in the short term unless there are huge swings a mid-performing theater should be just as predictive as a high end theater. 

Edited July 16, 2019 by Porthos
Decided on reflection to eliminate a point that wasn't quite as strong as I thought

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I track plenty of theaters that aren't as busy as others. It could just be that @TalismanRing's local theater isn't as busy as some. Or they buy later in the pre-sale window than other places.

 

Doesn't make the data any less valid if it is consistent.  Well, consistent-ish.  

 

Like, none of my theaters would crack a national Top 20.  Century Arden might not even crack a Top 50 (I honestly don't know where it ranks, but I figure the 14 screens holds it back quite a bit).  But it's the consistency from film to film, genre to genre that matters.

 

Sure, theaters will wax and wane as time goes on.  But in the short term unless there are huge swings a mid-performing theater should be just as predictive as a high end theater.  Perhaps a tiny bit more so if  there's a danger of a high end theater maxing out on showtimes and seats.

Numbers from @Deep Wang are great. I hope we get a final number to compare with Beast. That to me would be the best comparison. Sadly we lost Pulse to get more macro perspective on day to day basis. But look at busiest NYC theaters, its doing great in Dolby/Imax but not so good otherwise.

 

I will look at SF and LA as well to see how its doing. But I want to see greater boost in non Imax/Dolby shows.. we are almost at final 48 hour window before its previews start.

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I track plenty of theaters that aren't as busy as others. It could just be that @TalismanRing's local theater isn't as busy as some. Or they buy later in the pre-sale window than other places.

 

Doesn't make the data any less valid if it is consistent.  Well, consistent-ish.  

 

Like, none of my theaters would crack a national Top 20.  Century Arden might not even crack a Top 50 (I honestly don't know where it ranks, but I figure the 14 screens holds it back quite a bit).  But it's the consistency from film to film, genre to genre that matters.

 

Sure, theaters will wax and wane as time goes on.  But in the short term unless there are huge swings a mid-performing theater should be just as predictive as a high end theater.  Perhaps a tiny bit more so if  there's a danger of a high end theater maxing out on showtimes and seats.

Good explanation. Just to add to it, I think people were heavily spoiled by Endgame. That movie sold out just about everything it could, and now makes any movie that doesn't sell out any showing look pathetic. I think people need to get used to the fact that Endgame was the exception not the rule.

 

However, due to his experience, I'm sure @keysersoze123 is well aware of that anyway.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Numbers from @Deep Wang are great. I hope we get a final number to compare with Beast. That to me would be the best comparison. Sadly we lost Pulse to get more macro perspective on day to day basis. But look at busiest NYC theaters, its doing great in Dolby/Imax but not so good otherwise.

 

I will look at SF and LA as well to see how its doing. But I want to see greater boost in non Imax/Dolby shows.. we are almost at final 48 hour window before its previews start.

Its doing pretty excellently in all formats at Cinemark. The low sales % is in my experience mostly because it has an obscene number of shows for previews and OD. 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Good explanation. Just to add to it, I think people were heavily spoiled by Endgame. That movie sold out just about everything it could, and now makes any movie that doesn't sell out any showing look pathetic. I think people need to get used to the fact that Endgame was the exception not the rule.

 

However, due to his experience, I'm sure @keysersoze123 is well aware of that anyway.

 

On top of that, TLK is going to have more show times than any movie except Endgame. The percentages don’t matter in the slightest. What’s the total number of tickets sold comparable to similar movies, is the question. 

TS4 did $12m in previews and had a $121m OW. In almost every theater on this thread it’s at least 50% ahead of TS4 and some over 150% ahead. Deep Wang just posted yesterday that it’s over double TS4 at the same time frame. 

I guess I’m having trouble seeing why other posters are confused by the numbers. They’re clearly bared out to be seen. 

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

All horrible numbers. How do Blockbusters do? Any numbers for Spidey or Cap Marvel?

SM didn't have previews except Midnights  CM I tracked city wide and did not count seats but rather sellouts, near sellouts, number of screens and capacity.  Again, CBM movies are considerably heavier pre-sellers than family movies

 

TS4 still opened to $120m+.  Aladdin to $91m+.  Not exactly a mid level openers and it's they're the same demographic going to TLK.   Also similar to I2

 

The Fandango meter ratio between TS4 was almost as same as the preview ratio on Wed 1.60 v 1.55  Though M-W for I2 was 2.17 bigger

 

Whereas  CM's M-W was 1.44x of ID2 and had heavier pre-sales before Monday.  Yet while it's Thur previews were 11.2% higher than ID2 it's o/w was  18.3% lower

 

Incredibles 2    20,872  /  23,430 /    39,337       (M-W: 83,639)       $18.6m/$182.687m
Toy Story 4    12,605   /  13,388   /  24,517      (M-W: 38,510)         $12m/$122m

Captain Marvel    33,951 /   37,060   / 49,745     (M-W:120,756)     $20.7m / $154.43m

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

TLK’s % solds look “bad” because it got an outrageous slate of showings. Like almost Endgame level, when it would be incredible lucky to do 2/3rd Endgame OW business.

Edited July 16, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

TLK’s % solds look “bad” because it got an outrageous slate of showings. Like almost Endgame level, when it would be incredible lucky to do 2/3rd Endgame OW business.

I don’t think that is true. Endgame had close to 70% of screens. I don’t think Lion king is in that ballpark. Closer to 2nd weekend of Endgame than 1st.
At Empire 25 Lion King has like 36 shows (2D + 3D) and 5 Imax/Dolby for previews. it has not got the AMC Prime screen for some reason. For OD weird reason it has fewer 2D + 3D shows (21) and 11 Dolby/Imax.

Endgame had almost 100 shows and previews had ridiculous number of shows.

Of course LK 2/3 length of Endgame or less and so it can do with fewer screens but show counts have to boost up to come anywhere near the ballpark of Endgame.

[keysersoze123]

19 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

SM didn't have previews except Midnights  CM I tracked city wide and did not count seats but rather sellouts, near sellouts, number of screens and capacity.  Again, CBM movies are considerably heavier pre-sellers than family movies

 

TS4 still opened to $120m+.  Aladdin to $91m+.  Not exactly a mid level openers and it's they're the same demographic going to TLK.   Also similar to I2

 

The Fandango meter ratio between TS4 was almost as same as the preview ratio on Wed 1.60 v 1.55  Though M-W for I2 was 2.17 bigger

 

Whereas  CM's M-W was 1.44x of ID2 and had heavier pre-sales before Monday.  Yet while it's Thur previews were 11.2% higher than ID2 it's o/w was  18.3% lower

 

Incredibles 2    20,872  /  23,430 /    39,337       (M-W: 83,639)       $18.6m/$182.687m
Toy Story 4    12,605   /  13,388   /  24,517      (M-W: 38,510)         $12m/$122m

Captain Marvel    33,951 /   37,060   / 49,745     (M-W:120,756)     $20.7m / $154.43m

 

 

 

Ok. but this is a live action movie. I expect it behave closer to Beast than Toy Story. Aladdin was not a uber blockbuster(from opening perspective).

[Porthos]

I see a bunch of posts were made while I was semi-quickly putting together some data.

 

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Its doing pretty excellently in all formats at Cinemark. The low sales % is in my experience mostly because it has an obscene number of shows for previews and OD. 

This.  If we can even call it a low percentage.

 

First and foremost, if shows just got added (and this is the window when they do), they'll depress the overall percentage.  Just today Regal Delta Shores added seven more showings for Thr to it's already sizeable number (now takes it over 20 for Thr).

 

But still, some theaters perform better than others.  I stripped away the names, coz they're unimportant.  And I also am not counting a theater that only has one screen with reserved seating.

 

Here is the as-of-last-night look at theaters in Sacto:

Sold   Total    Perct
918	2386	38.47%
97	1800	5.39%
487	2116	23.02%
250	844	29.62%
115	307	37.46%
359	2066	17.38%
201	1246	16.13%
518	1210	42.81%
576	1756	32.80%
405	1225	33.06%
732	1793	40.83%
232	1252	18.53%
511	1792	28.52%
170	1298	13.10%
153	1336	11.45%
171	752	22.74%

One theater is in fact horrible, and I would never use it as a comp by itself as it will have radical swings of comps when a film is in fact busy enough for ticket sales to trickle down there (in fact, I tend to use it as a canary in the coal mine for a truly big breakout hit).  And another one is right at the cusp of being the same.

 

But look at the list.  Nothing is currently above 45%.  Here is the same list sorted by tickets sold:

 

Sold   Total    Perct
918	2386	38.47%
732	1793	40.83%
576	1756	32.80%
518	1210	42.81%
511	1792	28.52%
487	2116	23.02%
405	1225	33.06%
359	2066	17.38%
250	844	29.62%
232	1252	18.53%
201	1246	16.13%
171	752	22.74%
170	1298	13.10%
153	1336	11.45%
115	307	37.46%
97	1800	5.39%

No prizes awarded for guessing the #1 theater on that list.  And the second-to-last is actually a small dine-in theater so focus more on the percentage there.

 

Overall, again as of last night, Sacto was at a tick under 25% of tickets sold.  But if I didn't track a few of the heavy hitters, it could be around 20% sold.

 

Now there is something to be said about "spillover" where folks buy up more tickets at some theaters in a region when the heavy hitters max out.  No idea where TalismanRing's theater lands in the grand scope of things in her local area.  Regardless, as I said 2.69x of TS4 isn't exactly "horrible".  If you want to take something from it, take that it is a sign that TLK is not just doing well at the busiest theaters, but perhaps also in the mid-tier theaters where dollars matter just as much as they do with the big guns of the DOM market.