The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Small sample size but still counts as WoM. Presales are much higher than Aladdin in South Korea but it might not reach the heights Aladdin did in terms of final gross.

Isn't that a press screening though? 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Small sample size but still counts as WoM. Presales are much higher than Aladdin in South Korea but it might not reach the heights Aladdin did in terms of final gross.

agreed  here it will depend on how the next few days will go i would say to really see the wom, however i dont think that aladdin will hit 100 million in korea like aladding will do even if the wom is better

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Menor said:

Sat I haven't been tracking since it should be more or less predictable from OD. The trend between previews and Friday is pretty healthy though as will be shown in this post.

 

Thurs:

Showings: 3619 (+14)

Theaters: 231

Tickets Sold: 86894 (+9985)

Tickets Available: 453878 (+435)

Estimated ATP: 12.58

Estimated Sales: $1,093,372 (+120765)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $10 million (+$1 million)

 

Fri: 

Showings: 5791 (-5) (not sure what happened here but it probably didn't make a huge difference)

Theaters: 232

Tickets Sold: 95069 (+14383)

Tickets Available: 812968 (-804)

Estimated ATP: 11.19

Estimated Sales: $1,063,406 (+$154,262)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $9.5 million (+$1.5 million)

 

Btw @Charlie Jatinder if Friday presales on that morning were say $23 million then what would you predict for the day?

How do you estimate ATP? it should sell healthy amount of kids tickets?

[Deep Wang]

So, this weekend is going to be interesting.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Isn't that a press screening though? 

it seems that you are right, the movie will release on 17

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

So, this weekend is going to be interesting.

Care to explain why you think it will be interesting, thanks to some fancy numbers?

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

 I don’t track on the weekends so I will not have a better picture of this until tomorrow evening. I plan to buy the plane Wi-Fi and do some seat counting. 

 

There’s a couple things going on in New York (Empire 25 and Lincoln Square) right now that I can speak of off the top of my head.

 

1.  There are an obscene amount of showings. The overall tickets sold are more than the other films I have tracked, with the exception of endgame, this year. However with 40 showings at Empire alone it looks like it’s not selling well. 

 

2.  The film had a giant surge its first two days, and then really flattened out. For example it has sold about 1500 tickets at Lincoln Square. It’s sold 1000 the first day, and has only sold 500 since. I think it goes without saying that the final week is really going to determine if this lands at 180 million or this lands at 220 million. I personally don’t see it going above or below that. 

 

I have some more thoughts but between packing for a plane ride and not having numbers in front of me I will keep them for tomorrow nights update

 

ETA: the AmC website has been wrong all week. They keep changing if things are sold out or not. Empire 25 went from 1600 to 900 seats this week, and the went back up to like 1100. 

My concern tracking Empire 25 is that it has fewer 2D shows on friday than thursday and those shows have not sold that much. its showing good sales only at Dolby and Imax(that too not too early shows). I am not able to get compete handle tracking anecdotal data.

 

One thing I know tracking so many movies is blockbusters do insanely well at Empire.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

So, this weekend is going to be interesting.

any insight?

[charlie Jatinder]

19 minutes ago, Menor said:

Sat I haven't been tracking since it should be more or less predictable from OD. The trend between previews and Friday is pretty healthy though as will be shown in this post.

 

Thurs:

Showings: 3619 (+14)

Theaters: 231

Tickets Sold: 86894 (+9985)

Tickets Available: 453878 (+435)

Estimated ATP: 12.58

Estimated Sales: $1,093,372 (+120765)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $10 million (+$1 million)

 

Fri: 

Showings: 5791 (-5) (not sure what happened here but it probably didn't make a huge difference)

Theaters: 232

Tickets Sold: 95069 (+14383)

Tickets Available: 812968 (-804)

Estimated ATP: 11.19

Estimated Sales: $1,063,406 (+$154,262)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $9.5 million (+$1.5 million)

 

Btw @Charlie Jatinder if Friday presales on that morning were say $23 million then what would you predict for the day?

Usually with that sort of film; I mean JWFK or TS4, I will be thinking of 71-72mn True Friday, but I expect this to be more pre-sale heavy than those films.

Perhaps something's like Infinity War to Cap Marvel ratio. That will $57-60mn Approx True Friday.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

How do you estimate ATP? it should sell healthy amount of kids tickets?

Estimated ATP/Cinemark sales doesn't account for that, it's only intended turned account for different ATP between days for example July 4th ATP being way lower than 3rd or discount Tuesdays, on addition to different levels of 3D/PLF penetration. I account for the kids tickets by giving it a smaller multiplier of Cinemark sales to nationwide sales than FFH had for it's OD.

[charlie Jatinder]

26 minutes ago, Menor said:

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $10 million (+$1 million)

Thursday previews counting start from $20mn.

[charlie Jatinder]

I guess the standard numbers would be

 

20

57

65

55

 

197

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Small sample size but still counts as WoM. Presales are much higher than Aladdin in South Korea but it might not reach the heights Aladdin did in terms of final gross.

 

I definitely don’t think it’ll be near Aladdin. That could do $100m. I’d be very happy if TLK did $50m.

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Thursday previews counting start from $20mn.

you mean that 20 is the low end of where the previews could go ?

[Deep Wang]

TLK - 7.4m

 

OUAT - 269k(😏)

 

H&S - 300k

[ThomasNicole]

Feels like TLK will finish with around 14M

 

Excellent result

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

OUAT - 269k(😏)

 

H&S - 300k

That doesn't look good for H&S.

[XXR vs XXR]

19 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

TLK - 7.4m

 

It should double this week. Would give us a final total PS of around $50m for all theaters.

 

[Molek]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

It should double this week. Would give us a final total PS of around $50m for all theaters.

 

What OW does that translate to?

[FlashMaster659]

24 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

TLK - 7.4m

 

OUAT - 269k(😏)

 

H&S - 300k

Nearly double TS4 at the same point in time