The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

IF Sacramento is still broadly predictive of @Menor's scraper (it's been fairly close so far), I'd expect they'll post around a 12.0m to 12.25m estimate for nationwide sales for Thr, should they do another update today.  

 

Curious to see what they have, if they did an update today.

 

Got a new laptop and I forgot to finish up the run after transferring my files. Will post an update tomorrow. Based on some partial data I collected last night from 74 theaters, about 11.8 million, considering variation in the sample your estimate is probably pretty on point. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Porthos said:

Local drive-in FINALLY put up its double feature slate for FSS.

 

And the winner of the TLK sweepstakes is...

 

 

TOY STORY 4!!!!!

 

Sorry, Aladdin.

 

 

(FFH is still doubling with MIB:I as well, for what it matters)

it was obvious. Always the movie that opens most recent gets Double slot.

[Jiffy]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Local drive-in FINALLY put up its double feature slate for FSS.

 

And the winner of the TLK sweepstakes is...

 

 

TOY STORY 4!!!!!

 

Sorry, Aladdin.

 

 

(FFH is still doubling with MIB:I as well, for what it matters)

Good news. 

[Porthos]

I normally don't check the number of showtimes for FSS locally cause it's huge PITA to do for very little gain.  I normally only check it to see if there are any greyed out sellouts for the big blockbusters that might get them.

 

But I also, very occasionally, like to get the number of showings over the weekend, just to get an idea of capacity.

 

I've been waiting a bit to post this, partially for the drive-in to check in, and it's a good thing as the showtimes keep going up.  Close to the final slate here and we have:

 

TLK:

Fri:   512

Sat:  507

Sun: 495

 

For comparison...

 

EG (final):

Fri:  549

Sat: 544

Sun: 515

 

CM (final):

Fri:  370  [TLK adj: 490]

Sat: 373  [TLK adj: 487]

Sun: 353 [TLK adj: 475]

 

IW (final):

Fri:   391 [TLK adj: 490]

Sat:  389 [TLK adj: 487]

Sun: 370 [TLK adj: 475]

 

--

 

Now it is summer, so Sunday isn't quite as deflated.  But that it's within a stone's throw of friggin' Endgame when it comes to number of showtimes is nutso.  Here the runtime (1 hour 3 min less) is really helping.

 

Also makes me think the internal multi won't be all that bad after all for the OW and that Discount Tue should be pretty good as well.

 

After that though...

 

...

 

Well, guess we'll see just how well it is playing with the GA after all.   

Edited July 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

50 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So is a $200M OW pretty much dead at this point?

Very live. Lots of uncertainty around how the internal multi will play out.

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/16/2019 at 9:44 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 78/532

12:00 AM - 2/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

9:00 PM - 29/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:40 PM - 8/744

 

RPX 3D

 

9:40 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 0/150

9:20 PM - 0/150

12:15 AM - 0/150

 

2D

 

6:20 PM - 21/411

6:45 PM - 5/211

7:00 PM - 17/404

7:20 PM - 2/331

7:40 PM (1) - 6/338

7:40 PM (2) - 0/133

8:00 PM - 0/196

8:15 PM - 0/154

8:30 PM - 0/123

8:45 PM - 5/157

9:15 PM - 0/138

9:30 PM - 6/411

9:45 PM - 0/211

10:00 PM - 0/404

10:20 PM - 0/331

10:40 PM - 0/338

10:45 PM - 0/133

11:00 PM - 0/196

11:10 PM - 0/154

11:20 PM - 0/155

11:30 PM - 0/123

11:45 PM - 0/157

12:10 AM - 0/138

 

Total

 

179(+63)/8881 (2.0%)

 

The Lion King - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 94/532

12:00 AM - 2/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

9:00 PM - 37/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:40 PM - 19/744

 

RPX 3D

 

9:40 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 3/150

9:20 PM - 0/150

12:15 AM - 0/150

 

2D

 

6:20 PM - 31/411

6:45 PM - 5/211

7:00 PM - 23/404

7:20 PM - 2/331

7:40 PM (1) - 12/338

7:40 PM (2) - 6/133

8:00 PM - 17/196

8:15 PM - 2/154

8:30 PM - 6/123

8:45 PM - 8/157

9:15 PM - 0/138

9:30 PM - 6/411

9:45 PM - 0/211

10:00 PM - 0/404

10:20 PM - 0/331

10:40 PM - 2/338

10:45 PM - 0/133

11:00 PM - 0/196

11:10 PM - 0/154

11:20 PM - 0/155

11:30 PM - 0/123

11:45 PM - 0/157

12:10 AM - 0/138

 

Total

 

275(+96)/8881 (3.1%)

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Very live. Lots of uncertainty around how the internal multi will play out.

 

*me remembering the days gone by with Pulse and MT*

[JB33]

14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Very live. Lots of uncertainty around how the internal multi will play out.

Okay, thanks. I was wondering because several people here are posting as if their the target is now $170-$180M. Maybe I'm just imagining things and it's only a couple people.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

*me remembering the days gone by with Pulse and MT*

Yeah that era was really great as a like pump in terms of seeing how online sales were going. I think I’d still be fairly uncertain about TLK’s IM even with both, since the central question is how much it’s playing like an original family/kids movie vs a nostalgia-y/sequel-y/fan-y event. TS4’s IM was “low” due to the latter (imo) and I’d be kind of surprised to see TLK have  a higher IM than it.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Okay, thanks. I was wondering because several people here are posting as if their the target is now $170-$180M. Maybe I'm just imagining things and it's only a couple people.

 

It’s mostly keeping expectations in check so that people don’t call $180 million a “disappointment” if it occurs. We will see what the audience reaction is like but as of right now everything is on track for a $200m opening.

[Permanent Magnet]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

It’s mostly keeping expectations in check so that people don’t call $180 million a “disappointment” if it occurs. We will see what the audience reaction is like but as of right now everything is on track for a $200m opening.

So the previews are likely to come in the 21-22M range, Right?

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/16/2019 at 9:59 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Victoria Gardens 12 (Thursday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 111/157

9:00 PM - 105/157

 

RealD 3D

 

6:00 PM - 7/231

9:00 PM - 0/231

 

2D

 

6:25 PM - 61/300

6:50 PM - 6/199

7:15 PM - 23/199

7:40 PM - 9/145

8:05 PM - 12/232

8:30 PM - 22/145

9:25 PM - 14/300

9:50 PM - 6/199

10:15 PM - 4/199

10:40 PM - 3/145

11:30 PM - 8/145

 

Total

 

391(+47)/2984 (13.1%)

 

The Lion King - AMC Victoria Gardens 12 (Thursday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 114/157

9:00 PM - 107/157

 

RealD 3D

 

6:00 PM - 7/231

9:00 PM - 7/231

 

2D

 

6:25 PM - 86/300

6:50 PM - 11/199

7:15 PM - 30/199

7:40 PM - 9/145

8:05 PM - 12/232

8:30 PM - 30/145

9:25 PM - 14/300

9:50 PM - 8/199

10:15 PM - 6/199

10:40 PM - 3/145

11:30 PM - 8/145

 

Total

 

452(+61)/2984 (15.1%)

[Cap]

The Lion King

Tuesday Numbers for Thursday Previews

 

The Lion King
	7.1	7.12	7.15	7.16	Total	Sold	%	SOs
Empire 25	1109	1239	1485	1611	7341	126	21.94%	0
Lincoln Square 13	1458	1595	1763	1860	6472	97	28.73%	0
SM Cinemagic	103	143	202	246	2434	44	10.10%	0

 

So the North East matches what CoolEric and Porthos said about having a slower Tuesday.  I'm going to post the full chart under a spoiler tag for Mobile.  My BIG CONCERN is it goes off a cliff after 9PM.  We're really going to need the adults pull through with the later shows.

Lincoln Square 13

 

 

 

 

 

0

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4

Spoiler

Lincoln Square	6.24	6.26	6.27	6.28	7.1	7.3	7.5	7.8	7/10	7.12	7.15	7.16	Total	%
	The Lion King
STD 6:00PM	11	18	18	18	21	22	22	25	28	28	37	40	363
STD 6:30PM	9	18	18	18	18	20	20	22	24	36	52	56	296
STD 7:00PM	29	32	33	33	34	34	36	42	44	48	56	70	324
STD 7:30PM	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	12	14	18	31	42	218
STD 8:00PM	6	6	6	6	6	8	8	8	9	17	33	38	173
STD: 8:30PM	0	2	2	2	2	2	2	4	7	9	20	22	173
STD 8:50PM	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	4	11	22	50	55	363
STD 9:30PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	9	10	16	28	296
STD 10:00PM	2	4	4	4	4	4	4	7	7	7	7	7	324
STD 10:30PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	8	218
STD 11:00PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	3	173
STD 11:30PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	173
STD 11:45PM	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	363
DOLBY 6:00PM	204	215	220	223	230	230	232	241	245	248	254	254	297
DOLBY 9:00PM	153	171	171	171	196	207	210	216	222	230	236	238	297
DOLBY 12:00AM	7	10	10	14	13	17	24	31	36	45	56	65	297
REALD 6:00PM	2	8	8	8	10	10	10	12	13	15	28	32	342
REALD 9:15PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10	22	20	24	342
IMAX 6:00PM	295	323	326	345	343	353	354	365	380	383	405	412	480
IMAX 9:00PM	254	272	290	302	312	316	322	351	360	393	379	383	480
IMAX 12:00AM	12	19	20	20	23	23	26	34	37	61	69	81	480
TOTAL	1002	1116	1144	1182	1230	1264	1288	1389	1458	1595	1763	1860	6472

 

Empire 25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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18

Spoiler

Empire 25	7.1	7.5	7.8	7/10	7.12	7.15	7.16	Total
STD 6:00PM	11	17	22	30	36	49	69	377
STD 6:10PM	9	8	8	8	8	8	8	99
STD 6:20PM	7	7	7	8	12	20	26	99
STD 6:40PM	15	19	19	26	26	28	37	99
STD 6:50PM	5	6	8	10	12	22	22	121
STD 7:10PM	7	7	10	10	22	28	30	142
STD 7:20PM	14	19	21	23	45	55	56	145
STD 7:40PM	18	19	26	33	44	56	72	144
STD 7:50PM	8	8	8	10	10	16	16	141
STD 8:10PM	19	19	21	26	26	33	33	134
STD 8:20PM	11	14	14	14	15	17	18	126
STD 8:30PM	262	262	9	11	13	26	26	262
STD 8:40PM	122	122	2	2	7	7	9	122
STD 8:50PM	2	6	6	6	8	8	8	122
STD 9:10PM	23	27	29	29	30	37	37	99
STD 9:15PM	3	3	3	3	3	8	10	377
STD 9:20PM	7	7	7	8	10	10	11	99
STD 9:40PM	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	99
STD 9:50PM	2	2	2	2	2	7	7	121
LIMAX 10:00PM	130	150	145	191	196	249	256	321
STD 10:10PM	2	2	2	2	4	6	6	146
STD 10:20PM	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	145
STD 10:40PM	8	10	10	10	10	12	12	144
STD 10:50PM	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	141
STD 11:10PM	6	6	6	6	6	6	10	134
STD 11:20PM	262	262	11	17	17	17	17	262
STD 11:40PM	122	122	2	2	2	2	5	122
STD 11:50PM	2	2	2	4	4	4	4	121
DOLBY 6:00PM	194	221	208	206	211	210	210	225
DOLBY 9:00PM	169	176	179	183	188	195	204	225
DOLBY 12:00AM	22	32	43	53	62	76	77	225
REALD 6:30PM	34	43	51	56	69	83	101	309
REALD 7:00PM	14	16	26	36	43	53	59	309
REALD 7:30PM	22	23	22	22	22	40	46	262
REALD 8:00PM	14	16	16	16	28	34	40	158
REALD 9:30PM	1	3	3	3	5	14	16	309
REALD 10:00PM	1	1	1	1	1	3	3	309
REALD 10:30PM	8	10	10	11	11	15	19	262
REALD 11:00PM	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	158
REALD 11:30PM	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	126
TOTAL	1587	1698	990	1109	1239	1485	1611	7341

 

SM Cinemagic

 

 

 

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 Advanced issues found

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2

Spoiler

Movie	6.24	6.26	6.27	6.28	7.1	7.3	7.5	7.8	7/10	7.12	7.15	7.16	Total
IMAX	The Lion King
IMAX 6:30PM	0	25	25	25	25	32	32	39	51	60	73	79	144
IMAX 9:30PM	0	2	2	2	4	4	4	16	18	27	32	36	144
STD 6:00PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	8	10	12	17	112
STD 7:00PM	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	16	112
STD 8:40PM	0	0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	6	6	112
STD 9:50PM	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	112
TOTAL	10	35	41	41	43	50	50	79	91	111	133	159	736
RECLINERS	The Lion King
6:00 PM	2	2	2	4	8	8	8	10	10	14	29	38	83
7:00 PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10	21	25	54
9:00 PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	83
9:40 PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	54
TOTAL	2	2	2	4	8	8	8	10	12	24	50	63	274
STADIUM	The Lion King
6:00 PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	10	13	356
7:00 PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6	6	356
8:45 PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	356
9:45 PM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	356
TOTAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	19	24	1424
GRAND TOTAL	12	37	43	45	51	58	58	89	103	143	202	246	2434

 

 

Current Comps

 

v Comps Final Day
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1860	--	--
Endgame	5259	35.36%	21.22
Aladdin	836	222.48%	15.57
Toy Story 4	1273	146.11%	17.53
v T-3 Days Out
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1860	--	--
Aladdin	675	275.55%	19.28
Toy Story 4	899	206.89%	24.82

Maybe I'm just too cautious, but I'm still feeling this will be 19-20M.  On one hand, it's ahead of every other movie I've tracked this year but Endgame.  By just tickets sold, it's huge.  On the other hand, the combination of light night showings, Lincoln Square always over-performing, and children's prices make me feel like we're in for a tease of 19.5M.

 

Bookkeeping:

 

I should have time tonight to get all the numbers, but again, it will be like yesterday where they're probably more for records and not intimate updates.  Thursday might be a problem, to be honest.  It's going to be wristband time.  I'm going to try my best to get all the numbers.  

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Permanent Magnet said:

So the previews are likely to come in the 21-22M range, Right?

 

Nothing is set in stone but that is currently where it’s looking. Let’s say $19m for sure and see what the top end looks like tomorrow.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

So the previews are likely to come in the 21-22M range, Right?

More like 20m-22m, IMO.  19m-21m if folks like @captainwondyful and @FlashMaster659 are more on track this time around.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Okay, thanks. I was wondering because several people here are posting as if their the target is now $170-$180M. Maybe I'm just imagining things and it's only a couple people.

170-180 is a nice safe area to be shooting for. It’s just a very inexact business, despite all the hard work people put in. I wouldn’t be that shocked with an 18.5*8.5= high 150s. Or with 23*10=230. Even if we had all the data from every MTC and tracking service, humans are hard to predict 😛 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Imo final TS4 comps will undershoot. This should have less kids tickets as a proportion than TS4 did.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Imo final TS4 comps will undershoot. This should have less kids tickets as a proportion than TS4 did.

Aladdin?

 

For whatever reason Aladdin predicted TS4 nearly perfectly locally, so I do have a fallback there.

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

170-180 is a nice safe area to be shooting for. It’s just a very inexact business, despite all the hard work people put in. I wouldn’t be that shocked with an 18.5*8.5= high 150s. Or with 23*10=230. Even if we had all the data from every MTC and tracking service, humans are hard to predict 😛 

Yep, and I am ever learning that lesson this year. Lots of unexpected IM's, previews etc. it seems like this year. We think we've got it pretty much nailed down and then.....not even close. I mean, to a degree this happens all the time with box office but it feels like it's been especially true this year. I attribute it to the not-so-gradual curve when it comes to presales. It's getting to the point where it feels like it's growing MONTHLY and we can't even use a comparable film from the previous year to compare.

 

It's exactly as you said: people are hard to predict. It just seems like they were a little easier to predict before.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Aladdin?

 

For whatever reason Aladdin predicted TS4 nearly perfectly locally, so I do have a fallback there.

I think TS4 and Aladdin still both work, no comp is perfect. Just making a passing observation there. The effect shouldn't be too huge.