The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 94/532

12:00 AM - 2/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

9:00 PM - 37/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:40 PM - 19/744

 

RPX 3D

 

9:40 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 3/150

9:20 PM - 0/150

12:15 AM - 0/150

 

2D

 

6:20 PM - 31/411

6:45 PM - 5/211

7:00 PM - 23/404

7:20 PM - 2/331

7:40 PM (1) - 12/338

7:40 PM (2) - 6/133

8:00 PM - 17/196

8:15 PM - 2/154

8:30 PM - 6/123

8:45 PM - 8/157

9:15 PM - 0/138

9:30 PM - 6/411

9:45 PM - 0/211

10:00 PM - 0/404

10:20 PM - 0/331

10:40 PM - 2/338

10:45 PM - 0/133

11:00 PM - 0/196

11:10 PM - 0/154

11:20 PM - 0/155

11:30 PM - 0/123

11:45 PM - 0/157

12:10 AM - 0/138

 

Total

 

275(+96)/8881 (3.1%)

 

The Lion King - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 126/532

12:00 AM - 2/532

 

IMAX 3D

 

9:00 PM - 48/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:40 PM - 27/744

 

RPX 3D

 

9:40 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 10/150

9:20 PM - 1/150

12:15 AM - 1/150

 

2D

 

6:10 PM NEW - 15/138

6:20 PM (1) - 32/411

6:20 PM (2) NEW - 0/140

6:25 PM NEW - 3/128

6:45 PM - 19/211

7:00 PM - 37/404

7:20 PM - 23/331

7:40 PM (1) - 27/338

7:40 PM (2) - 10/133

8:00 PM - 27/196

8:15 PM - 11/154

8:30 PM - 9/123

8:45 PM - 8/157

9:05 PM NEW - 0/208

9:10 PM NEW - 0/140

9:15 PM (1) - 2/138

9:15 PM (2) NEW - 0/128

9:30 PM - 8/411

9:45 PM - 0/211

10:00 PM - 2/404

10:20 PM - 4/331

10:40 PM - 7/338

10:45 PM - 0/133

11:00 PM - 0/196

11:10 PM - 0/154

11:20 PM - 0/155

11:30 PM - 0/123

11:45 PM - 0/157

12:00 AM NEW - 3/140

12:10 AM - 2/138

 

Total

 

464(+189)/9903(+1022) (4.7%)

 

1.1208x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 mid-day of previews

3.1781x as many seats sold as Aladdin mid-day of previews

Edited July 18, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Porthos]

Selling like gangbusters here, but... Now I'm wondering if either Sacramento is gonna underperform a little.

 

Lost a lot of ground to both Aladdin and TS4 and on a pure mid-day comp against both, it'd be about 20.1 to 20.75m.

 

Now since I have soooooo many more showtimes to count without sellouts to help me skip showings, I did start about 25 minutes earlier than I did on my TS4 check.  So I might have lost a sliver of sales there.  But I don't think enough to matter that much.

 

Gonna try to keep an eye on sales all day long so I can make the last check as quickly as possible.  But if Sacto is any indication AND if the ATP is similar to Aladdin/TS4, might be looking at 20m to 21m in previews.  Possibly 19m-20.5m.

 

Which would still be fantastic, I should add.

 

---

 

I am starting to see sales post 9pm at the busier theaters in town.  However I am also seeing a pretty huge resistance at buying the front row/worst seats in the second row.  That is there is lots of interest in the film, but not so much as to take the worst seats at a showing.

 

Another way to put it:  Marginal seats are selling.  Crappy/worst seats in the theater?  Not as much.   Be interesting to see if it continues.

 

If I have time, I'll do a more rigorous check on the 9:00 to 9:45 start times and see if there's anything of interest there.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

good ? (its not the final )

See my analysis above.

[Molek]

Sacto comps:

Fallen Kingdom and Godzilla are 24-25

TS4 and Aladdin are 20-21

Pikachu is 19.7

[Tinalera]

38 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

https://twitter.com/josh_hammer/status/1151129688833765378

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 159/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 191/203

9:00 PM - 174/203

12:00 AM - 129/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 55/78

6:30 PM - 39/63

7:00 PM - 47/78

8:45 PM - 40/60

9:15 PM - 25/78

9:45 PM - 10/63

10:15 PM - 18/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 33/55

7:30 PM - 22/167

8:00 PM - 19/114

9:00 PM - 17/79

10:30 PM - 5/167

12:00 AM NEW - 0/79

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 54/63

8:00 PM - 43/61

8:30 PM - 49/63

10:45 PM - 39/63

11:15 PM - 39/61

11:45 PM - 28/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 35/44

6:15 PM - 34/55

6:30 PM - 166/217

6:45 PM - 27/44

7:00 PM - 60/79

7:15 PM - 24/44

7:45 PM - 26/44

8:00 PM - 26/45

8:15 PM - 128/167

8:30 PM (1) - 26/45

8:30 PM (2) - 82/114

8:45 PM - 26/44

9:00 PM - 28/49

9:15 PM - 24/44

9:30 PM (1) - 16/55

9:30 PM (2) - 27/55

9:45 PM - 61/217

10:00 PM (1) - 20/48

10:00 PM (2) NEW - 11/44

10:15 PM - 21/79

10:30 PM - 18/44

11:15 PM (1) - 4/45

11:15 PM (2) NEW - 8/114

11:30 PM - 20/167

11:45 PM (1) - 2/114

11:45 PM (2) NEW - 0/45

12:00 AM (1) NEW - 2/44

12:00 AM (2) NEW - 0/49

 

Total

 

2157(+419)/4464(+375) (48.3%)

 

1.4754x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 mid-day of previews

0.5090x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame mid-day of previews

My apologies if "sad" shows up my phone wont let me correct it. Lol

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Selling like gangbusters here, but... Now I'm wondering if either Sacramento is gonna underperform a little.

 

Lost a lot of ground to both Aladdin and TS4 and on a pure mid-day comp against both, it'd be about 20.1 to 20.75m.

 

Now since I have soooooo many more showtimes to count without sellouts to help me skip showings, I did start about 25 minutes earlier than I did on my TS4 check.  So I might have lost a sliver of sales there.  But I don't think enough to matter that much.

 

Gonna try to keep an eye on sales all day long so I can make the last check as quickly as possible.  But if Sacto is any indication AND if the ATP is similar to Aladdin/TS4, might be looking at 20m to 21m in previews.  Possibly 19m-20.5m.

 

Which would still be fantastic, I should add.

 

---

 

I am starting to see sales post 9pm at the busier theaters in town.  However I am also seeing a pretty huge resistance at buying the front row/worst seats in the second row.  That is there is lots of interest in the film, but not so much as to take the worst seats at a showing.

 

Another way to put it:  Marginal seats are selling.  Crappy/worst seats in the theater?  Not as much.   Be interesting to see if it continues.

 

If I have time, I'll do a more rigorous check on the 9:00 to 9:45 start times and see if there's anything of interest there.

nice, we will know is some hours,

[Biggestgeekever]

 

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Victoria Gardens 12 (Thursday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 114/157

9:00 PM - 107/157

 

RealD 3D

 

6:00 PM - 7/231

9:00 PM - 7/231

 

2D

 

6:25 PM - 86/300

6:50 PM - 11/199

7:15 PM - 30/199

7:40 PM - 9/145

8:05 PM - 12/232

8:30 PM - 30/145

9:25 PM - 14/300

9:50 PM - 8/199

10:15 PM - 6/199

10:40 PM - 3/145

11:30 PM - 8/145

 

Total

 

452(+61)/2984 (15.1%)

 

The Lion King - AMC Victoria Gardens 12 (Thursday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 117/157

9:00 PM - 114/157

 

RealD 3D

 

6:00 PM - 8/231

9:00 PM - 12/231

 

2D

 

6:25 PM - 135/300

6:50 PM - 46/199

7:15 PM - 60/199

7:40 PM - 33/145

8:05 PM - 34/232

8:30 PM - 51/145

9:25 PM - 20/300

9:50 PM - 17/199

10:15 PM - 23/199

10:40 PM - 5/145

11:30 PM - 8/145

 

Total

 

683(+231)/2984 (22.9%)

[Porthos]

*checks RT*

 

*gives low whistle*

 

If Sacto predicts this coming under 20m at final bell (which I suspect it might), I'm blaming the Tomato Law.

 

(@CoolEric258)

[XXR vs XXR]

On 7/17/2019 at 2:59 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 1 Day to Previews

 

 

41 show times, 1143 (+205) tickets sold out of 3394 (+147) available (33.68%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

 

 

Passed Captain Marvel today (with 4.5 hours to spare) but I imagine the average ticket price is about 10% lower due to more kids tickets being sold. My final update tomorrow will be around 3:45pm.

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- Previews Night -- 345pm CST

 

 

41 show times, 1570 (+427) tickets sold out of 3394 available (46.26%)

 

 

Comps

Captain Marvel - 1140 tickets sold by 5:30pm on Wednesday before previews

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 3:30pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 7:30pm on Wednesday before previews 

 

 

Final Thoughts

Today had a great increase. Relative to the same day and time, TLK is 91% ahead of TS4 at my theater. I know in other locations the numbers won't be as drastic, but my Spidey Sense is telling me to peg previews at $21.5 million.

 

 

Edited July 18, 2019 by VenomXXR

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*checks RT*

 

*gives low whistle*

 

If Sacto predicts this coming under 20m at final bell (which I suspect it might), I'm blaming the Tomato Law.

 

(@CoolEric258)

well it could, but it depends on what the other datas from other users will show too,fingers crossed, the fun if you will just started

Edited July 18, 2019 by john2000

[Molek]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

my Spidey Sense is telling me to peg previews at $21.5 million.

I placed them at 21.7 as well in the weekend thread for my final prediction, let's hope we're right 

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/17/2019 at 9:18 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 119/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 276/281

9:15 PM - 275/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 260/360

6:45 PM - 75/120

7:00 PM - 249/360

10:00 PM - 104/360

10:15 PM - 6/120

10:30 PM - 38/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 48/50

7:30 PM - 48/50

10:00 PM - 46/50

11:00 PM - 45/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 141/158

7:15 PM (1) - 111/135

7:15 PM (2) - 111/137

7:45 PM (1) - 122/159

7:45 PM (2) - 101/133

8:15 PM - 436/532

9:45 PM - 114/158

10:45 PM - 88/135

10:50 PM - 87/137

11:15 PM (1) - 64/159

11:15 PM (2) - 44/133

11:30 PM - 72/532

 

Total

 

3080(+132)/5071 (60.7%)

 

The Lion King - AMC Disney Springs 24 (Thursday)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 120/121

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 273/281

9:15 PM - 273/281

 

RealD 3D

 

6:30 PM - 325/360

6:45 PM - 93/120

7:00 PM - 323/360

10:00 PM - 190/360

10:15 PM - 26/120

10:30 PM - 73/360

 

2D Dine-In

 

6:30 PM - 46/50

7:30 PM - 47/50

10:00 PM - 47/50

11:00 PM - 46/50

 

2D

 

6:15 PM - 157/158

7:15 PM (1) - 129/135

7:15 PM (2) - 126/137

7:45 PM (1) - 147/159

7:45 PM (2) - 126/133

8:15 PM - 504/532

9:45 PM - 132/158

10:45 PM - 96/135

10:50 PM - 87/137

11:15 PM (1) - 90/159

11:15 PM (2) - 78/133

11:30 PM - 173/532

 

Total

 

3727(+647)/5071 (73.5%)

[JB33]

33 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

 

Wow! Actually it's kind of sad that theatre count records are are dropping so fast now. It doesn't seem like a big deal anymore. I do wonder what's happening this year, specifically. I remember just two years ago Despicable Me 3's count was a really big deal. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [11:50am - 1:05pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	287	18654	27831	9177	32.97%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Since Last Night:        1

Total Showings Added Since Last Night:          1

Total Seats Added Since Last Night:               51

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night:              1139

 

Unadjusted Comps

3.4643x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu mid day of premiere.

2.9689x as many tickets sold as Aladdin mid day of premiere.

3.8462x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters mid day of premiere.

1.6752x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 mid day of premiere.

 

T-0 Mid Day:

Pika      392 seats sold [0 sellouts/112 shows |   7619/10268 seats  | 2649 seats sold |  25.08% sold]

Aladdin 585 seats sold [0 sellouts/117 shows | 10762/13853 seats  | 3091 seats sold |  22.31% sold]

KotM     398 seats sold [0 sellouts/125 shows | 13097/15483 seats  | 2386 seats sold | 15.41% sold]

TS4       881 seats sold [2 sellouts/149 shows | 11387/16865 seats  | 5478 seats sold | 32.48% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.6659x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom mid day of premiere..

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-0 Mid Day:

JW2          761 seats sold [0 sellouts/147 shows |   8762/13715 seats | 4953 seats sold | 36.11% sold]

TLK (JW)   999 seats sold [0 sellouts/288 shows | 14441/22692 seats | 8251 seats sold | 36.36% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

Out of curiosity what would a CM comp yield?

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

Huge grosser incoming .... 

Just watched the movie... It’s a solid 7.5 maybe 8.0

 

I found the first act pretty weak, but it gets better after 15-20 Minutes. I understand people who think is unnecessary because it’s really pretty much identical the animation. But as a fan, i really enjoy it.

 

That said, even with some flaws (the animals really aren’t that expressive, even if people are overreacting and it’s nothing which compromise), the movie is a huge crowdpleaser. People on my theater laugh a lot, i heard lots of “ownn” and “OMG” during the movie, and finally it received applauses when it ends. Personally i think Aladdin is more fun to watch, but quality-wise, they’re similar. Oh, and the effects are absolutely mesmerizing, definitely could get an Oscar. 

 

Coming out of the theater i heard a lot of people talking how much they loved it, even those who says the animations is better say the movie is really good too.

 

Maybe audiences on US will not like that much, but from what i see, WOM should be pretty decent, not like Aladdin, but good enough. 

 

[ThomasNicole]

Some good ass jumps today in local theaters right? Sweet.

 

I think the target is really $ 19-21M. Hoping it can cross $ 20M though, and with so many showtimes and that screen count, i don’t think the multi will be much low, probably around BATB and TS4, which is great.

[Menor the Destroyer]

TLK Thursday numbers (as of 2 hours ago):

 

Theaters: 231

Showings: 4441 (+35 since midnight)

Tickets sold: 163575 (+20515 since midnight)

Tickets available: 514800 (+3001 since midnight)

Estimated Sales: 2024327 (+247864 since midnight)

Estimated nationwide sales: 16.2 million (+2 million since midnight)

20 million previews is looking good and I'll agree with @VenomXXR at pinning my final prediction at 21.5 million. Running some Pulse comps for trends, absolute worst case I can see is 19 million 

Edited July 18, 2019 by Menor

[Biggestgeekever]

$20M+ previews are indeed looking good

[keysersoze123]

Final day jump is big. Shows are filling up. 20m+ previews is locked. i could even see 25m previews at this point. bumping up my OW prediction to 210m.

 

@captainwondyful my final update for Empire 25 as 1st shows start. I will be on the move and so may not be able to capture final updates for all the shows.

 

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25

Dolby: 205/225 (6PM), 216/225 (9PM), 103/225 (12AM)
Imax - 261/303 (10PM)
3D: 193/309 (A14 630PM), 110/309 (A9 7PM), 61/262 (A17 730PM),67/158 (A6 8PM), 46/309 (A14 930PM), 21/309 (A9 10PM), 23/262 (A17 1030PM), 6/158 (A6 11PM), 8/126(A3 1130PM)

2D: 214/377(A13 6PM), 61/99(A16 610PM), 58/99(A22 620PM), 50/99(A24 640PM), 33/121(A15 650PM), 54/146(A7 710PM), 69/145(A25 720PM)  79/144(A20 740PM),32/142(A19 750PM), 58/134(A5 810PM), 22/126(A3 820PM), 53/262(A12 830PM), 14/122(A10 840PM), 12/111(A21 850PM), 43/99(A16 910PM), 16/377(A13 915PM),20/99(A22 920PM), 12/99(A24 940PM), 12/121(A15 950PM), 12/146(A7 1010PM), 9/145 (A25 1020PM), 22/144(A20 1040PM), 8/142(A19 1050PM), 16/134 (A5 1110PM),  18/262(A12 1120PM), 7/122 (A10 1140PM), 8/121(A21 1150PM)

 

 

Edited July 18, 2019 by keysersoze123