The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There are very few theaters listing shows. I am not sure it will start tomorrow. SW9 shows were listed friday/saturday and sales opened on Monday. I am expecting something similar. So either friday start or Monday like SW9.

 

Among AMC's I checked only AMC Lincoln Square has listed shows and that too just for Imax(2 of them). Does not feel like how they do it for blockbusters(example lion king). Even Joker started with crazy amount of shows.

Of course Joker started with a crazy amount of shows.  It started pre-sales 11 days before release. 

 

The dead market also helped.

 

Locally, Frozen 2 is already at 91 showings which is more than the 87 TS4 started with.  More to the point several theaters haven't checked in yet, plus the Fan Events aren't up yet, so I expect Frozen 2 to be around the TLK local launch of 133 shows.  If not more.

[John2015]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terminator Dark Fate(T-1)

AMC Prev - 19307/200955 $320787 1007 shows +2468
AMC OD -  27652/615205 $454447 2953 shows + 3790
Cin Prev - 7570/205205 $97916 1273 shows +1440
Cin OD - 14163/494905 $164849 2953 shows +1958

 

Good increase in just under 9 hours. As someone said Halloween could depress previews but OD should be solid. I am thinking it could hit 12-13m friday with just under 2m previews.

It looks like many potential audience were actually waiting for the reviews.

 

Luckily， it is still "fresh "  in RT after over 124 reviews.

Edited October 31, 2019 by John2015

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Of course Joker started with a crazy amount of shows.  It started pre-sales 11 days before release. 

 

The dead market also helped.

 

Locally, Frozen 2 is already at 91 showings which is more than the 87 TS4 started with.  More to the point several theaters haven't checked in yet, plus the Fan Events aren't up yet, so I expect Frozen 2 to be around the TLK local launch of 133 shows.  If not more.

I scraped across AMC and found 1046 shows. That is 1/5th of current SW9 PS count and 1/3rd of final Joker count(95% were there from day 1 from anecdotal checks). But I agree Joker started PS so late that it started with almost final show count. I will wait for PS to start before passing judgement.

 

I dont have any data for TS4(it was good old days of Pulse data). But I have month of tracking 2 chains and I did do Previews for TLK at Empire 25(and Spider-man Midnights and few other movies after that like Once Upon, H&S, IT2). TLK should be very good movie to compare with. That started around similar time as well.

[Eric is Anxious]

Harriet Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	234	3,574	6.55%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 536

Total Seats Sold Today: 71

 

Comp

0.495x of Hustlers (1.24M)

0.463x of Downton Abbey (973K)

0.652x of Gemini Man (1.04M)

1.307x of Black and Blue (882K)

[Eric is Anxious]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	411	11,027	3.73%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 1,083

Total Seats Sold Today: 101

 

Comp

0.300x of Once Upon 1 day before release (1.74M)

2.045x of Angel Has Fallen (3.07M)

0.172x of It: Chapter Two (1.81M)

1.612x of Ad Astra (2.42M)

1.985x of Rambo (2.58M)

0.119x of Joker (1.59M)

1.145x of Gemini Man (1.83M)

0.926x of Zombieland (2.64M)

[DAJK]

Harriet doing close to 1M previews would be great for it. Sadly it's selling pretty poor here, although it's not typically the kind of movie that would do well in Canada. Both Harriet and Motherless Brooklyn have 2 tickets sold all Friday (and both are movies I would see if it was any other, less busy weekend for me).

 

Parasite has 4 tickets sold for Friday so... yay for it?

Lighthouse KILLED it this week here (I'm kinda mad I didn't think about tracking it) and it only has 6 tickets for Friday, so maybe pre-sales for these movies mean squat here. 

[Eric is Anxious]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-50 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	7,872	28,790	27.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 61

[Eric is Anxious]

@DAJK

 

I do think you should take my trackings with a grain of salt for Harriet. Philadelphia has a large black population, which does skew results here. Gemini Man was looking at 2M+ previews here, which didn't happen, and Black and Blue was looking at 1.5M, which didn't even come close to happening.

[Cap]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - Week One
Theater	Today		10/22	10/23	10/30	Total	%		Shows	SOs
SM Cinemagic	173		935	--	1108	2065	53.65%		12	1
Cinemagic	314		2088	--	2402	4410	54.46%		26	1
Lincoln Square 13	105		4491	4566	4671	6516	71.68%		24	10

 

There's not a lot of movement in the first week, but it's also so far ahead of everything but Endgame, that does it really matter?  Especially this far out?  That's not for me to call.

 

v First Week Comps
Star Wars
Lincoln Square	4671	--	--
Endgame	4831	96.69%	58.01M
Cinemagic	1108	--	--
Endgame	1426	77.56%	46.53M

 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

On 11/1/2017 at 8:38 AM, MaxAggressor said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-lays-down-the-law-for-theaters-on-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1509528603

 

Before exhibitors can begin screening “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” this December, they must first commit to a set of top-secret terms that numerous theater owners say are the most onerous they’ve ever seen. Disney will receive about 65% of ticket-sales revenue from the film, a new benchmark for a Hollywood studio. Disney is also requiring theaters to show the movie in their largest auditorium for at least four weeks.

 

Ignoring the terms carries an unusual penalty. If a theater violates any condition of the distribution agreement, Disney can charge it an additional 5%, bringing the studio’s total haul to 70% of sales on a movie likely to gross more than $500 million at the domestic box office.

 

That dynamic has exhibitors across the country resigning themselves to a new condition of doing business: If you want to play Disney’s blockbuster movies, get used to Disney’s rules.

 

“They’re in the most powerful position any studio has ever been in, maybe since MGM in the 1930s,” said one film buyer.

 

Few operators can afford to turn away a Disney windfall. But some independent theaters have decided not to screen “Last Jedi” when it’s released, saying the company’s disproportionate share of ticket sales and four-week hold make little economic sense—especially in small towns.

 

“There’s a finite number of moviegoers in my market, and I can service all of them in a couple of weeks,” said Lee Akin, who operates a single-screen theater in Elkader, Iowa (population: 1,213).

 

Toward the end of a monthlong run, Mr. Akin said he would be unable to swap in more popular titles and instead have to play “Last Jedi” to near-empty auditoriums—while still giving Disney 65% of those paltry sales. The studio is applying the 65% split across all weeks of the film’s release, rather than some studios’ practice of beginning a split at a high figure and then lowering it in subsequent weeks.

 

 

Disney’s rules on “Star Wars” begin before tickets go on sale online, when the studio outlines presale terms to theaters in contracts that are individually watermarked to prevent exhibitors from leaking them. Previous “Star Wars” installments gave Disney 64% of ticket sales and included four-week holds, and other releases from the studio usually require theaters to commit to a minimum of two weeks of screenings.

 

But Disney’s 5% penalty for not meeting terms on “Last Jedi” is unusual. The charge will be implemented for various violations, including if a theater pulls even one “Star Wars” screening from its schedule or begins marketing the movie before Disney gives the OK, according to theater operators.

 

The four-week hold in a theater’s largest auditorium, meanwhile, has frustrated distribution executives at rival studios that also have major releases hitting theaters around Christmastime. Soon after the “Last Jedi” opens on Dec. 15, movies such as Sony Pictures Entertainment Inc.’s “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” and Twentieth Century Fox’s “The Greatest Showman” will begin jockeying for screen times. Twentieth Century Fox’s owner, 21st Century Fox Inc., and Wall Street Journal parent News Corp share common ownership.

 

i wonder the theater demands this time around , since the theaters got burned last time.

[keysersoze123]

on SW previews/OD sold about 1400+ tickets at AMC while at Cinemark I saw  2516 tickets sold today !!!!

 

Also for LOLs I ran the 1046 shows for F2 like I did for SW9 before PS started. After all inside sales and sales at box office can happen. SW9 was at 18424/723615 before the PS start !!!! F2 is at 435/217658(data for 1027 shows). So if SW9 Previews would be say 50m that would mean F2 previews would be YUGE 1.18m 

 

Now if F2 previews end up say 20m as some are predicting what would be extrapolated SW9 previews.

 

 

 

 

On a serious note these numbers are irrelevant.

[FlashMaster659]

So far 25 Thursday night shows for Frozen II from 4 theaters in the Inland Empire

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-50 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	193	12261	23249*	10988	47.26%

* Theaters adjusted the seat maps for showings resulting in an addition of thirteen seats available overall.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

52

 

T-50 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-50	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	461.16		74	2281		0/81	8327/10608	21.50%		95.46m
TROS (adj)	n/a		49	10519		2/193	11468/21987	47.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

CINEPLEX BANQUE SCOTIA MONTREAL

 

TERMINATOR: DARK FATE - THURSDAY OCT 31 2019

 

UltraAvX

7:00pm - 13/378

10:10pm - 4/378

IMAX

7:30pm - 82/343

10:40pm - 9/343

 

 

Halloween is effecting things for sure but it really needs some great walk ups tonight and this weekend. 

Edited October 31, 2019 by EarlyDeadlinePredictions

[keysersoze123]

Empire 25 has 1st set of shows listed for F2. 2 imax, 2 dolby and 2 digital shows are listed. No 3d and no prime. I dont have comparison with TS4 as I did not track theaters but TLK had lot more shows from the beginning. But we still have time. I think PS should go live either this evening or tomorow at worst.

 

Still nothing at Metreon 16(2nd largest Imax Screen after Lincoln Square) at SF.

Edited October 31, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Manny G]

50 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

CINEPLEX BANQUE SCOTIA MONTREAL

 

TERMINATOR: DARK FATE - THURSDAY OCT 31 2019

 

UltraAvX

7:00pm - 13/378

10:10pm - 4/378

IMAX

7:30pm - 82/343

10:40pm - 9/343

 

 

Halloween is effecting things for sure but it really needs some great walk ups tonight and this weekend. 

*affecting

[Eric is Anxious]

https://deadline.com/2019/10/frozen-2-opening-weekend-projection-1202773437/

 

Quote

Disney’s Frozen 2 hit tracking this morning at a very loud level with females and it’s poised to do $100M, maybe even more.

 

While no animated film outside of summer has ever opened to $100M, even over the Thanksgiving 5-day, make no doubt that women have fueled the November box office before with The Hunger Game pics, the second film in the Lionsgate franchise, Catching Fire, being the highest with $158M.

 

More fuel adding to Frozen 2‘s projection: the sequel’s first teaser racked up the most ever for an animated pic back in February with 116.4M views worldwide in its first 24 hours, besting the 113.6M of Incredibles 2. 

 

[Eric is Anxious]

DL also updated with A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood tracking at 25M, which sounds about right, though I would love to see it open higher

[XO21]

Thanksgiving is on the 28th, so the holidays are 25-28th or 28-29th?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, XO21 said:

Thanksgiving is on the 28th, so the holidays are 25-28th or 28-29th?

Thursday/Friday are holidays(friday not for everyone). Schools are generally off entire week. So 28th and 29th are holidays.