The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[John Marston]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terminator Dark Fate (wednesday mid morning update)

Cin Prev - 6130/205225 $79576 1274 shows +1683
Cin OD - 12205/494905 $142613 2953 shows
AMC Prev - 16839/197817 $282761 991 shows +1576
AMC OD -  23862/606699 $396927 2913 shows

 

Didn’t @TalismanRing say this movie can have PS to OW multi of as high as 17-18? Any way looking at PS above, OD seem way better than Previews. So let us wait until friday before we doom this movie

Movie is already doomed thanks to the budget 

[keysersoze123]

    Ok for Frozen 2, I see few listings from Regal and some Indies. New York has 4 theaters listing 2 showtimes each for previews starting either at 6PM or 7PM. So will PS start sometime this week or will it be next Monday. Is there a forum where they can release a trailer and say tickets on sale?

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

    Ok for Frozen 2, I see few listings from Regal and some Indies. New York has 4 theaters listing 2 showtimes each for previews starting either at 6PM or 7PM. So will PS start sometime this week or will it be next Monday. Is there a forum where they can release a trailer and say tickets on sale?

No clue, but it just showed up locally at a smaller chain literally in the last hour or so and looking at I'm gonna say that the Opening Night Fan Event will be at 5pm since it has normal 6pm previews.

 

Maybe GMA tomorrow morning?  Fri morning?  Don't see anything of interest tonight on ABC.  Maaaaaaybe Grey's Anatomy tomorrow night?  Dancing With the Stars is next Monday and I doubt they'll wait that long.  

 

So, yeah.  Put me down for GMA tomorrow or Fri.

Edited October 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Old Spice]

Just over 28 hours until the first preview night screenings start in Salt Lake, and at the Cinemark Sugarhouse Dark Fate is currently at 25% of Dark Phoenix's Thursday afternoon presale total. Just to get up to that is going to take a yeoman effort, but in the last 18 or so hours there's been almost no activity... maybe four tickets sold?

 

Paramount in their worst nightmare probably never thought that they would end 2019 without a single film in the top 25 domestic. 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-51 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	253	11695	52004	40309	22.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 93

 

===

 

Actually got a good bump from the previous day.

Edited October 31, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local -  Main chart behind cut

 

Spoiler

 

 

NYC Local	Mon		Tues		Wed		Thur		Previews	Preview Start
Shazam!					129/2229	(Afternoon)	187/2229	(3:30pm)	$5.9m	4:00 PM
Avengers: Endgame	3948/4,736	(12am)			4,853/5493	(9pm)			$60m	6:00 PM
Aladdin			98/1242	(12pm)					$7m	6:00 PM
Godzilla 2					135/1915	(7:45pm)	204/2150	(3:30pm)	$6.3m	4:00 PM
X-Men: DP			103/942	(4pm)	209/942	(3:15pm)	272/942	(3:45pm)	$5m	6:00 PM
SLOP 2			38/771	(4pm)	43/771	(3:15pm)			$2.3m	6:00 PM
Toy Story 4			165/2049	(4pm)	233/2049	(7:40pm)			$12m	6:00 PM
SM:FFH	142/922								$2.8m	Midnights Only
The Lion King	236/3228	(6:30pm)	294/3228	(6:20pm)	444/3228	(4:30pm)	557/3228	(4:30pm)	$23m	6:00 PM
OUATIH			117/1179	(2:15pm)	159/1179	(4pm)	335/1179	(4:20pm)	$5.8m	4:00 PM
Hobbs & Shaw	60/1543	(5:20pm)			181/1543	(4pm)			$5.8m	7:00 PM
IT Part 2	147/2764	(9am)			239/2764	(7:10pm)			$10.5m	5:00 PM
Hustlers			45/512	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey (eps)			37/301	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	$2.2m	7:00 PM
Ad Astra			26/602	(4:30pm)	26/602	(4:30pm)	41/602	(4:30pm)	$1.5m	6:00 PM
Downton Abbey			31/512	(4:30pm)	39/512	(4:30pm)	52/1015	(4:30pm)	$2.1m	7:00 PM
Rambo			29/302	(4:30pm)	53/1242	(4:30pm)	58/1242	(4:30pm)	$1.3m	6:00 PM
Abominable			30/255	(4:30pm)		(4:30pm)	73/1969	(4:30pm)	$.65m	6:00 PM
Joker (-1 week)	104/2766	(9am)	172/2766	(4:30pm)			217/3536	(4pm)		4:00 PM
Joker	328/3536	(4:20pm)	399/3536	(4pm)	542/3536	(4pm)	760/3741	(3:45pm)	$13.3m	4:00 PM
Gemini Man			38/1004	(4pm)	38/1004	(4pm)	78/1004	[6:30pm]	$1.55m	7:00 PM
Adams Family		(4pm)	53/1373	(4pm)	49/1373	(4pm)			$1.25m	4:00 PM
Maleficent 2	39/1154	(4pm)	42/1154	(4pm)	33/834	(4pm)	96/1425	[6pm]	$2.3m	7:00 PM
Zombieland 2	51/1114	(4pm)	53/1114	(4pm)	67/1177	(4pm)	95/1478	[6pm]	$2.85m	7:00 PM
Black & Blue			19/410	(4pm)			20/410	(4pm)	$.68m	7:00 PM
Countdown			15/511	(4pm)			19/411	(4pm)	$.52m	7:00 PM
Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)				7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)				7:00 PM

 

 

Terminator: DF	71/1242	(4pm)	71/1242	(4pm)	76/1242	(5:30pm)				7:00 PM
Harriet	25/512	(4pm)	25/512	(4pm)	27/512	(5:30pm)				7:00 PM

 

Minimal movement from Mon to Wed for Thur previews.  Only 5 more tickets sold for Terminator and 2 more for Harriet

 

Higher pre-sales for Friday than Thur

 

TERM DF: Friday - 10 showings 168

Harriet: Friday - 5 showings - 48

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/28/2019 at 4:02 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1495

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1547

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 20ish hrs	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7093	37	22686	31.27%	9	179

 

Getting really slow now. Though this is from roughly 6.5 hours less than yesterday. So the drop is probably harsher than it really was.

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1501

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1553

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7158	65	22870	31.30%	9	182

 

Showings added: 3

Seats added: 184

 

Now over 94% of The Lion King

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/28/2019 at 4:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Terminator: Dark Fate Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

88

808

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

42

753

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 20ish hrs	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
224	34	6337	3.53%	9	29

 

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.06M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.12M

Hobbs comp: 2.39M

Terminator: Dark Fate Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

106

808

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

79

753

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
332	108	6513	5.10%	9	31

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 176

 

Zombieland 2 comp: 2.07M

Gemini Man comp: 2.89M

Hobbs comp: 2.14M

[dudalb]

Looks as though, as far as box office goes, the subtitle "Dark Fate" was all too accurate.

Poor Parmount:Last year people thought the corner might have been turned with "A Quiet Place" being a surprise big hit, and the Mission Impossible film doing huge numbers, but 2019 has been horrid for them.

[Cmasterclay]

I think Terminator is definitely going to be a flop and all that for many reasons, but basing it off Thursdays is laughable to me. It's fucking Halloween night! Every person on Earth is either taking their family Trick or Treating or at a party, especially the kind of adult fanboy audience that would come to a movie like this. I'd say anything over 1.5 million is a success for this on Thursday. NOBODY is seeing a non-horror franchise movie on Halloween night.

[filmlover]

34 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think Terminator is definitely going to be a flop and all that for many reasons, but basing it off Thursdays is laughable to me. It's fucking Halloween night! Every person on Earth is either taking their family Trick or Treating or at a party, especially the kind of adult fanboy audience that would come to a movie like this. I'd say anything over 1.5 million is a success for this on Thursday. NOBODY is seeing a non-horror franchise movie on Halloween night.

Friday is definitely selling better than tomorrow for Terminator around here (even if its sales are really underwhelming still - the 7:30 PLF show is 1/3 full and the 7:00 has sold only 4 seats so far).

[TLK]

5 hours ago, John Marston said:

Movie is already doomed thanks to the budget 

I am a bit torn about the budget thing in this case. A budget cut means fewer action scenes and less CGI. I am not sure if that'll be a good thing for a Terminator movie. The biggest issue is that they needed to put some distance between the last flop and the new movie.

[filmlover]

Deadline:

 

Terminator: tracking sees $40M+, they're seeing closer to $30M

Harriet: $8-9M

Motherless Brooklyn: $5-6M

Arctic Dogs: $4-5M

 

https://deadline.com/2019/10/terminator-dark-fate-opening-weekend-james-cameron-arnold-schwarzenegger-linda-hamilton-1202772904/

[John2015]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terminator Dark Fate (wednesday mid morning update)

Cin Prev - 6130/205225 $79576 1274 shows +1683
Cin OD - 12205/494905 $142613 2953 shows
AMC Prev - 16839/197817 $282761 991 shows +1576
AMC OD -  23862/606699 $396927 2913 shows

 

Didn’t @TalismanRing say this movie can have PS to OW multi of as high as 17-18? Any way looking at PS above, OD seem way better than Previews. So let us wait until friday before we doom this movie

 

Someone in HSX made an interesting point:

 

thurs is a Halloween， which is always one of the worst days for US boc office.

 

Example: in 2008, Halloween was a Friday, Zack and Miri Make a Porno did 2.2 million on its opening day, on Saturday it went up 119% to 4.8 million

Read more: https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=486231#ixzz63tQBtyDK 
 

[charlie Jatinder]

No ps for F2 yet. Huh 

[danhtruong5]

If PS for Frozen 2 starts in next monday, then it will be only 18 days left till the release date. 

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

No ps for F2 yet. Huh 

Showtimes started appearing en masse tonight.  Very probably on GMA sometime in the next couple of days.  Absolutely no later than Monday, I reckon.

32 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

If PS for Frozen 2 starts in next monday, then it will be only 18 days left till the release date. 

FWIW, Solo, and KotM had 21 days of pre-sales and JW:FK, 23.  AM&tW had even fewer.

 

Probably tomorrow though, given the huge slates that went up tonight 

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Showtimes started appearing en masse tonight.  Very probably on GMA sometime in the next couple of days.  Absolutely no later than Monday, I reckon.

FWIW, Solo, and KotM had 21 days of pre-sales and JW:FK, 23.  AM&tW had even fewer.

 

Probably tomorrow though, given the huge slates that went up tonight 

There are very few theaters listing shows. I am not sure it will start tomorrow. SW9 shows were listed friday/saturday and sales opened on Monday. I am expecting something similar. So either friday start or Monday like SW9.

 

Among AMC's I checked only AMC Lincoln Square has listed shows and that too just for Imax(2 of them). Does not feel like how they do it for blockbusters(example lion king). Even Joker started with crazy amount of shows.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terminator Dark Fate (wednesday mid morning update)

Cin Prev - 6130/205225 $79576 1274 shows +1683
Cin OD - 12205/494905 $142613 2953 shows
AMC Prev - 16839/197817 $282761 991 shows +1576
AMC OD -  23862/606699 $396927 2913 shows

 

Didn’t @TalismanRing say this movie can have PS to OW multi of as high as 17-18? Any way looking at PS above, OD seem way better than Previews. So let us wait until friday before we doom this movie

Terminator Dark Fate(T-1)

AMC Prev - 19307/200955 $320787 1007 shows +2468
AMC OD -  27652/615205 $454447 2953 shows + 3790
Cin Prev - 7570/205205 $97916 1273 shows +1440
Cin OD - 14163/494905 $164849 2953 shows +1958

 

Good increase in just under 9 hours. As someone said Halloween could depress previews but OD should be solid. I am thinking it could hit 12-13m friday with just under 2m previews.

[John2015]

5 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Terminator: Dark Fate Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

106

808

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

79

753

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
332	108	6513	5.10%	9	31

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 176

 

Zombieland 2 comp: 2.07M

Gemini Man comp: 2.89M

Hobbs comp: 2.14M

 

If Dark Fate can gross about $2m in preview， it would be a  good result (for Halloween night), ; about $40m opening may be possible....

 

Tracking isn't very far off....