The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

SW9 is so far from release that daily updates dont make sense.

 

But look at its Day 4(Monday) PS.

 

AMC D4 - 14793/915091 $226510.15 - 4436 shows

 

That is more than previews PS for Terminator 3 days before release :-).

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Harriet Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	18	149	2,515	5.92%

 

Comp

0.548x of Hustlers 3 days before release (1.37M)

0.347x of Downton Abbey 3 days before release (729K)

0.629x of Gemini Man 3 days before release (1.01M)

2.224x of Black and Blue 3 days before release (1.50M)

 

Don't go out expecting this to be a breakout all of a sudden just yet. Black and Blue looked the same way, and that ended up with 675K previews. @Inceptionzq mentioned this, but Philadelphia having a largely black demographic could sway results here quite a bit, and this seems like the case here too. We'll see what the next few days have in store though.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	255	9,295	2.74%

 

Total Showings LOST Today: 2

Total Seats LOST Today: 218

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp

0.392x of Once Upon 3 days before release (2.27M)

2.143x of Angel Has Fallen 3 days before release (3.21M)

0.165x of It: Chapter Two 3 days before release (1.73M)

1.624x of Ad Astra 3 days before release (2.44M)

1.771x of Rambo: Last Blood 3 days before release (2.30M)

0.127x of Joker 3 days before release (1.69M)

1.076x of Gemini Man 3 days before release (1.72M)

0.885x of Zombieland 3 days before release (2.52M)

 

Yes, this LOST showtimes. 3 days before previews. If that doesn't speak volumes, I don't know what does

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-52 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	164	7,767	28,790	26.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 71

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-52 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	193	12374	23240	10866	46.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

118

 

T-52 Adjusted Comp (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-52	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	484.40		62	2148		0/81	8460/10608	20.25%		100.27m
TROS (adj)	n/a		108	10405		2/193	11573/21978	47.34%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel

 

===

 

Very nice day out of Sacramento all things considered, IMO.  Nice enough that I wonder if The Mandalorian trailer that dropped during MNF had a slight effect on things. 

 

Still slowing down dramatically at a ton of theaters though. I know I've said that every night after the first few nights... But that doesn't stop it from being true.  

Edited October 29, 2019 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terminator Dark Fate (T-3)

AMC Prev - 13247/172740 $223387 805 shows +1798
Cin Prev -  4447/164214 $58662 1011 shows  +654

 

It increased better than yesterday but that was given. Still numbers are really low(PS between 2 chains below 300K). Probably will stay below 500K by end of day wednesday and then finish around 700-800K. That would mean 1.9-2.3m national previews would be the range considering how much AMC is dominating cinemark. At worst it has Gemini man numbers(1.6m).

AMC is probably dominating Cinemark b/c the Cinemark subscribers have only 1 ticket a month to waste, and then have to pay...and the AMC folks are not thus limited...so this spread is probably giving an idea of walk up possibilities...

[filmlover]

Dark Fate needed more than four years after the floppage of Genisys to feel like anything special. It doesn't help that this franchise has an aura of more-of-the-same-ness more than most (such is the pitfalls of trying to build a franchise out of a story primarily dealing with time travel, I suppose).

[Tinalera]

9 hours ago, Eric Connor said:

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	40	255	9,295	2.74%

 

Total Showings LOST Today: 2

Total Seats LOST Today: 218

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp

0.392x of Once Upon 3 days before release (2.27M)

2.143x of Angel Has Fallen 3 days before release (3.21M)

0.165x of It: Chapter Two 3 days before release (1.73M)

1.624x of Ad Astra 3 days before release (2.44M)

1.771x of Rambo: Last Blood 3 days before release (2.30M)

0.127x of Joker 3 days before release (1.69M)

1.076x of Gemini Man 3 days before release (1.72M)

0.885x of Zombieland 3 days before release (2.52M)

 

Yes, this LOST showtimes. 3 days before previews. If that doesn't speak volumes, I don't know what does

When i was doing star wars and terminator numbers at same time i was stunned at difference between movie 3 days away vs 2 months away in star wars favor. It was juat incredible to see. 

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-52 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	253	11602	52004	40402	22.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

 

===

 

Yep we're definitely in the marathon period now. Dropped bigger than I thought it would yesterday.

Edited October 31, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[John2015]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Dark Fate needed more than four years after the floppage of Genisys to feel like anything special. It doesn't help that this franchise has an aura of more-of-the-same-ness more than most (such is the pitfalls of trying to build a franchise out of a story primarily dealing with time travel, I suppose).

Terminator franchise is over; even James Cameron can't save it.   (BTW, Terminator didn't work as a TV series; The Sarah Connor Chronicles was canceled.)

 

We will see more older franchise films flop at box office; Charlie's Angels is also tracking badly.

 

Next big flop - Top Gun 2?

 

[efialtes76]

6 minutes ago, John2015 said:

Terminator franchise is over; even James Cameron can't save it.

 

I read the same with Salvation and Genysis. 

And Cameron can save the franchise:

A Terminator Alien's style movie directed by himself  . 

[John2015]

6 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

I read the same with Salvation and Genysis. 

And Cameron can save the franchise:

A Terminator Alien's style movie directed by himself  . 

Cameron was very involved in the making of Dark Fate (Cameson said so, including to edit the final cut).  

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/2482934/how-james-cameron-worked-on-terminator-dark-fate-without-ever-stepping-on-set

 

But now, Dark Fate is still on track to gross less than Alita in worldwide....

Edited October 29, 2019 by John2015

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

AMC is probably dominating Cinemark b/c the Cinemark subscribers have only 1 ticket a month to waste, and then have to pay...and the AMC folks are not thus limited...so this spread is probably giving an idea of walk up possibilities...

Then that should happen for most movies. October had multiple movies with typical AMC/Cinemark %( cinemark is like 60% of AMC). Only ones which had warped data were Gemini Man and now Terminator. Gemini Man BO was dominated by Imax/PLF in large cities and Dolby is the most preferred of all the PLF. That is why AMC dominated it.

[Alli]

1 hour ago, John2015 said:

Terminator franchise is over; even James Cameron can't save it.   (BTW, Terminator didn't work as a TV series; The Sarah Connor Chronicles was canceled.)

 

We will see more older franchise films flop at box office; Charlie's Angels is also tracking badly.

 

Next big flop - Top Gun 2?

 

without a doubt. Par think that resurrecting these old movies/franchises will give them a hit. This strategy will be proven wrong.

[Inceptionzq]

I love it when AMC breaks while I’m counting tickets

[Inceptionzq]

Looks like they shut down theaters in Denver because of the weather. Oh well. Guess I’ll take a break today

[Napoleon]

“Terminator: Dark Fate,” the sixth installment in the sci-fi series, should earn $40 million when it bows in over 4,000 North American theaters, while some estimates show that figure could reach $47 million.

 

“Motherless Brooklyn,” a neo-noir crime drama from Edward Norton, looks to entice older moviegoers and should collect $5 million to $9 million.

 

Another option for adult ticket buyers, “Harriet,” is projected to earn $7.5 million to $9 million from 2,000 theatres.

 

For the family crowd, there’s “Arctic Dogs,” an animated adventure about a team of ambitious animals. The film, featuring the voice cast of Jeremy Renner, Heidi Klum, James Franco and Anjelica Huston, could make $5 million to $10 million from 2,835 locations.

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-terminator-dark-fate-harriet-opening-weekend-1203386841/

[John Marston]

10 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

“Terminator: Dark Fate,” the sixth installment in the sci-fi series, should earn $40 million when it bows in over 4,000 North American theaters, while some estimates show that figure could reach $47 million.

 

“Motherless Brooklyn,” a neo-noir crime drama from Edward Norton, looks to entice older moviegoers and should collect $5 million to $9 million.

 

Another option for adult ticket buyers, “Harriet,” is projected to earn $7.5 million to $9 million from 2,000 theatres.

 

For the family crowd, there’s “Arctic Dogs,” an animated adventure about a team of ambitious animals. The film, featuring the voice cast of Jeremy Renner, Heidi Klum, James Franco and Anjelica Huston, could make $5 million to $10 million from 2,835 locations.

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-terminator-dark-fate-harriet-opening-weekend-1203386841/

40m? Lol

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Harriet Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	161	3,038	5.30%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 5

Total Seats Added Today: 523

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.456x of Hustlers (1.14M)

0.351x of Downton Abbey (737K)

0.601x of Gemini Man (961K)

1.789x of Black and Blue (1.21M)

 

It's coming down. Still on okay comps, but we'll see if the next two days will change anything

 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Terminator: Dark Fate Greater Philadelphia Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	310	9,944	3.12%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 649

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp

0.338x of Once Upon (1.96M)

1.987x of Angel Has Fallen (2.98M)

0.162x of It: Chapter Two (1.70M)

1.606x of Ad Astra (2.41M)

1.937x of Rambo: Last Blood (2.52M)

0.121x of Joker (1.61M)

1.157x of Gemini Man (1.85M)

0.906x of Zombieland (2.58M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.311x of Hobbs & Shaw (1.80M)

 

Yikes at today's sales. 40M is arguably a long shot at this point.