The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

How would it go that low unless you’re expecting major frontloading?

JC Friday was 10.7 compared to 8 of this one. Even if its FSS has same SAT bump and SUN growth of JC, it will be $24M, giving $28M.

Edited August 7, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[narniadis]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

JC Friday was 10.7 compared to 8 of this one. Even if its FSS has same SAT bump and SUN growth of JC, it will be $24M, giving $28M.

Yup, barring a rarity in the cycle before Covid, let alone the small stuff we have seen this summer 30m is a dead. The comparisons yall have been making are getting better every week right now (for good or bad.) 

Just hoping its not BW front loaded to Friday. 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, narniadis said:

Yup, barring a rarity in the cycle before Covid, let alone the small stuff we have seen this summer 30m is a dead. The comparisons yall have been making are getting better every week right now (for good or bad.) 

Just hoping its not BW front loaded to Friday. 

Even $12.6m already wouldn’t be as front loaded as Black Widow was. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/6/2021 at 8:46 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-6	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	13	2	1.08%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	4	1	0.65%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	0	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			14	24	2,881	18	3	0.62%
Free Guy	T-6	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	66	21	1.52%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,604	66	19	2.53%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	71	3	3.62%
Free Guy Total			19	59	8,912	203	43	2.28%
Respect	T-6	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	11	-1	0.71%
		Phoenix	6	10	1,270	9	2	0.71%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	28	0	1.73%
Respect Total			17	30	4,435	48	1	1.08%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-2	Jacksonville	4	4	553	48	9	8.68%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	44	1	66.67%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	110	13	18.18%
Respect (FP) Total			9	9	1,224	202	23	16.50%

 

Didn't expect much today with TSS opening last night, so the new sales for Free Guy are pretty surprising.  The Jungle Cruise comp bumps the preview up to 3.19m

 

Reminiscence (no previews), Protégé and Night House are all on sale for next week.  I'll probably add over the weekend or early next week to see how they look.

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-5	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	13	0	1.08%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	6	2	0.98%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	0	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			14	24	2,881	20	2	0.69%
Free Guy	T-5	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	75	9	1.73%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,604	75	9	2.88%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	88	17	4.49%
Free Guy Total			19	59	8,912	238	35	2.67%
Respect	T-5	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	11	0	0.71%
		Phoenix	6	10	1,270	9	0	0.71%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	28	0	1.73%
Respect Total			17	30	4,435	48	0	1.08%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-1	Jacksonville	4	4	553	74	26	13.38%
		Phoenix	1	2	110	48	4	43.64%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	143	33	23.64%
Respect (FP) Total			9	10	1,268	265	63	20.90%

 

Jungle Cruise was still struggling at this point so Free Guy makes another big jump on it, improving to 3.59m.   The Respect premiere tomorrow is selling really well; Phoenix just added another show since the first has almost sold out.  I really hope we get a number for this.  

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Comparing with BoP, MTC1 seems 95%, though with more coverage can push around 92-93%. MTC 2 is bit lower and a lot lower with @Menor numbers. 

 

It's hard but I am thinking 7.75-8ish

7.9-8 Actuals. Guess I am getting back in reading MTC data.

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

7.9-8 Actuals. Guess I am getting back in reading MTC data.

First time I projected correctly from pace in a while as well. Feels good.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor how is FG doing. I am seeing a lot of mention how it is outselling JC as per our thread on Reddit and Twitter, but I don't think barring @katnisscinnaplex data, it is.

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor how is FG doing. I am seeing a lot of mention how it is outselling JC as per our thread on Reddit and Twitter, but I don't think barring @katnisscinnaplex data, it is.

 

 

I am planning on checking tonight to have an exact point-in-time comparison with JC.

 

TSS is at 27735 tickets in MTC2 in my first run. Around 87% of yesterday at the same point in raw tickets, probably under 80% in gross as ATP is down significantly. I'm guessing it finishes with a slight drop, maybe 7.6-7.7 million.

 

Edit: Looking at comps, we may actually see an increase. Not sure though. Morning numbers are very imperfect estimators.

Edited August 7, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I am planning on checking tonight to have an exact point-in-time comparison with JC.

 

TSS is at 27735 tickets in MTC2 in my first run. Around 87% of yesterday at the same point in raw tickets, probably under 80% in gross as ATP is down significantly. I'm guessing it finishes with a slight drop, maybe 7.6-7.7 million.

Did you took final count yesterday or we have to sort of adjust Keyser numbers.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Did you took final count yesterday or we have to sort of adjust Keyser numbers.

No, but from the time Keyser updated it probably would have added only around 6-7k. I'll take a final count now.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/24/2021 at 8:45 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Jungle Cruise	T-5	Jacksonville	5	27	4,984	65	4	1.30%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,221	66	4	1.56%
		Raleigh	7	28	3,374	48	-1	1.42%
Jungle Cruise Total			18	78	12,579	179	7	1.42%

 

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Free Guy	T-5	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	75	9	1.73%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,604	75	9	2.88%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	88	17	4.49%
Free Guy Total			19	59	8,912	238	35	2.67%

 

Jungle Cruise was still struggling at this point so Free Guy makes another big jump on it, improving to 3.59m.   The Respect premiere tomorrow is selling really well; Phoenix just added another show since the first has almost sold out.  I really hope we get a number for this.  

 

33 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor how is FG doing. I am seeing a lot of mention how it is outselling JC as per our thread on Reddit and Twitter, but I don't think barring @katnisscinnaplex data, it is.

 

Here's a comparison between the two at the same point in time (Sat before release).  It's still early and JC hadn't really taken off yet, but I'd be interested to see how this relates to the rest of the country as well.  Since I'm bored, here's the breakdown by theater/format for the two as of T-5.

 

Movie	Type	AMC	Cinemark	CMX	Regal	RoadHouse	Sun-Ray	Grand Total
Free Guy	4DX				0			0
	BigD	27						27
	Dolby	22						22
	IMAX	13						13
	RealD 3D	8	0		1			9
	RPX				6			6
	Standard	69	59		19		5	152
	XD		9					9
Free Guy Total		139	68		26		5	238
Jungle Cruise	BigD	16						16
	D-Box		0					0
	Dolby	66						66
	IMAX	9			4			13
	RealD 3D	3	8		3			14
	RPX				0			0
	Standard	37	29	0	4	0		70
Jungle Cruise Total		131	37	0	11	0		179

[charlie Jatinder]

Quote

When will we know if the delta variant is truly impacting the domestic box office? There are a few goal posts coming up. Disney has two pure theatrical windowed releases: 20th Century’s Ryan Reynolds’ Free Guy next weekend which is looking like $19M, and Marvel Cinematic Universe’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings over Labor Day. Now, hardly anyone, pandemic or no pandemic, goes to the movies over Labor Day, so if we Shang-Chi can beat the robust Labor Day 4-day of Guardians of the Galaxy ($22.9M 4th-weekend), I’d say business is pretty good. There’s also the Sept 24 release of Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage and the long-awaited Oct. 8 launch of MGM/UAR’s No Time to Die. If anything is greatly amiss with these films at the box office, then we can likely blame the variant.

 

https://deadline.com/2021/08/the-suicide-squad-margot-robbie-james-gunn-opening-weekend-box-office-hbo-max-1234810359/

LOL. Deadline think Shang Chi will beat "robust" $23M 4 days Labor day weekend of GoTG, and that will be good. 

[Inceptionzq]

On 8/5/2021 at 4:22 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

24

214

11.21%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

30

421

7.13%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
150	N/A	7175	2.09%	14	38

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.60M

Free Guy Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

27

214

12.62%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

37

421

8.79%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD 2 PAST DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
176	26	7353	2.39%	14	39

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 178

 

Jungle Cruise comp: 2.49M

Edited August 7, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[WrathOfHan]

Free Guy:

6:00: 13/107

7:15 3D: 6/77

Total: 19/184

 

Respect:

7:00 Dolby: 11/236

7:00 with Live Q&A: 0/107

Total: 11/343

 

Don't Breathe 2: 4/107

 

Free Guy doesn't have IMAX confirmed for Thursday yet, but over the weekend, it has all IMAX showings except for the late show which goes to TSS. I'll do full comps in the next update, but so far, Free Guy is tracking on par with Jungle Cruise.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Free Guy MTC2

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 1065

Seats Sold: 2586/165312

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 2401

Seats Sold: 3939/197109

 

Around half of JC at the same point for both Thursday and Friday.

 

TSS Saturday was at 83401 in the last run. Ticket sales are slightly ahead of Friday, ATP is down by a bit. Think it will be flat or maybe a tiny increase. 

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Quinn said:

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	99	6694	1.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

1.138x of Snake Eyes T-6 (1.59M)

0.861x of Jungle Cruise T-6 (2.32M)

Free Guy Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	105	6694	1.57%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

1.154x of Snake Eyes T-5 (1.61M)

0.890x of Jungle Cruise T-5 (2.40M)

[charlie Jatinder]

30 minutes ago, Menor said:

Around half of JC at the same point for both Thursday and Friday.

Yeah that's what I thought. Need good jumps in coming days. But since our regional trackers are seeing it close to JC, may be MTC1 is doing better than JC. Probably $1.5-2M THU. $5-7M FRI and $17-23M OW for now.

[charlie Jatinder]

@Menor if possible, can you check JC.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Menor if possible, can you check JC.

Bit too late.

[keysersoze123]

Suicide Squad Sat

MTC1 - 131851/898886 1797321.53 4751 shows

MTC2 - 97.5K ~ 1.07m

 

So its up a bit in MTC2 and down few % in MTC1(in $ value).