The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Average ticket price is high for SS due to PLF/Imax dominating its ticket sales. That said F9 sold 140K at MTC1 for 7.1. But average ticket price was lower. I think low 4s is most probable more I ruminate on the numbers. 

Yeah and F9 overperformed at MTC2. I agree with 4.2.

[Borobudur]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Average ticket price is high for SS due to PLF/Imax dominating its ticket sales. That said F9 sold 140K at MTC1 for 7.1. But average ticket price was lower. I think low 4s is most probable more I ruminate on the numbers. 

If Firday showing any late-improvement? 

[keysersoze123]

^^^

Suicide Squad Friday PS

MTC1 - 51962/867684 798755.85 4587 shows

MTC2 - 27367(DBOX adjusted)/636580 around 320K 4405 shows

 

One word meh. But let us see how walkups go. Today it went better than my doomsday scenario. 

[Last Man Standing]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah and F9 overperformed at MTC2. I agree with 4.2.

I don't usually get into the tracking side of the forum, could you tell me what's MTC1/2?

[Ryan Reynolds]

seems like not so good, i wonder if the industry will overreact Monday

 

here is deadline writeup of first film , be interesting if it attracts the same demos

https://deadline.com/2016/08/suicide-squad-weekend-box-office-opening-will-smith-margot-robbie-1201799046/

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

^^^

Suicide Squad Friday PS

MTC1 - 51962/867684 798755.85 4587 shows

MTC2 - 27367(DBOX adjusted)/636580 around 320K 4405 shows

 

One word meh. But let us see how walkups go. Today it went better than my doomsday scenario. 

It need some serious good PSm. Even 3x will just take it to 7.5. 

[Porthos]

47 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

I don't usually get into the tracking side of the forum, could you tell me what's MTC1/2?

 

MTC = Major   Theater   Chain.

 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/5/2021 at 8:52 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Suicide Squad Harkins California T-1 Day

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	20	4,842	270	5.58%	$3,428	$12.70
Cine 1	4	1,708	362	21.19%	$5,792	$16.00
Total	24	6,550	632	9.65%	$9,220	$14.59

 

Shows Added	-
Seats Added	-
Seats Sold	192

Comps

1.52x Jungle Cruise - $4.1M

 

JC sold 186 seats T-1 day while TSS sold 192 seats. On final day, JC sold 823 seats for 2.9x PSm. Expecting TSS to sell 750-800 seats for 1380-1430 final, which will give it 1.1-1.15x JC numbers i.e. ~$3M.

 

Addendum:

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	5	841	58	6.90%	$696	$12.00
Cine 1	4	1,276	177	13.87%	$2,655	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	127	14.27%	$1,905	$15.00
Total	11	3,007	362	12.04%	$5,256	$14.52

 

The numbers are currently 18.4% of BW final #s. Will probably hit 35% in final count. Doing better than CA in these two.

The Suicide Squad Harkins California Final

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	22	5,105	1,110	21.74%	$13,905	$12.53
Cine 1	4	1,708	590	34.54%	$9,440	$16.00
Total	26	6,813	1,700	24.95%	$23,345	$13.73

 

Shows Added	2
Seats Added	263
Seats Sold	1068

 

Comps

1.36x Jungle Cruise - $3.67M

0.32x Black Widow - $4.2M (Adjusted for ON $4.35M)

 

Addendum:

 

Estrella Fall and Arizona Mills

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	7	1,079	261	24.19%	$3,255	$12.47
Cine 1	4	1,276	382	29.94%	$5,730	$15.00
IMAX	2	890	211	23.71%	$3,165	$15.00
Total	11	3,245	854	26.32%	$12,150	$14.23

 

Comps

0.43x Black Widow - $5.63M ($5.85M Adjusted for ON)

 

Note: Estrella Fall is 38% of BW while AM is 49%.

 

Using the two, I estimated Harkins chain overall at around $90K, which should be around $4.1-4.5M. Right in range of what MTC 1 and 2 suggests.

 

 

 

 

[Madhuvan]

Considering how previews have over performed initial projections , I am really positive about good weekend now. Maybe 30m+ will happen with good wom

[Krissykins]

Summer 2021 pandemic preview numbers:

 

Black Widow $13.1m (w/ $30 streaming option)

F9 $7m

A Quiet Place 2 $4.8m

Jungle Cruise $2.7m (w/ $30 streaming option)
Old $1.5m

Snake Eyes $1.4m

Cruella $1.4m (w/ $30 streaming option)

The Forever Purge $1.3m (rated R)

Boss Baby 2 $1.3m (w/ streaming option) 
Escape Room 2 $1.2m

Peter Rabbit $900k
The Green Knight $750k (rated R)

Stillwater $225k (rated R)

Feel free to add if I’m missing any. Looks like The Suicide Squad could maybe be 4th then, with a streaming option. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Krissykins

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Summer 2021 pandemic preview numbers:

 

Black Widow $13.1m (w/ streaming option)

F9 $7m

A Quiet Place 2 $4.8m

Jungle Cruise $2.7m (w/ streaming option)
Old $1.5m

Snake Eyes $1.4m

Cruella $1.4m (w/ streaming option)

The Forever Purge $1.3m (rated R)

Boss Baby 2 $1.3m
Escape Room 2 $1.2m (rated R)

Peter Rabbit $900k
The Green Knight $750k (rated R)

Stillwater $225k (rated R)

Feel free to add if I’m missing any. Looks like The Suicide Squad could maybe be 4th then, with a streaming option. 

Although I doubt most people even know the service exists, Boss Baby 2 was a day and date Peacock release.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Escape Room is PG-13

[Krissykins]

58 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Escape Room is PG-13

Whoops so it is. That acid rain scene made me think it was an R. Ouch! 

[el sid]

1-2 hours left till I count the Friday but from first looks this time I'm not shocked . The increases look decent: The AMC in NY has around 400 seats sold already (282 yesterday), in Miami it's over 200 (137 yesterday), in Arizona close to 100 (59 yesterday). 

[Chicago]

6 hours ago, Last Man Standing said:

I don't usually get into the tracking side of the forum, could you tell me what's MTC1/2?

Taken from Google..

 

The Manufacturing Technology Centre (MTC) was established in 2010 as an independent Research & Technology Organisation (RTO) with the objective of bridging the gap between academia and industry – often referred to as ‘the valley of death’.

 

I think MTC2 is the sequel 

[SnokesLegs]

4 minutes ago, Chicago said:

often referred to as ‘the valley of death’

Ive definitely heard Regal/Cineworld be referred to as such. 

[Chicago]

Just now, SnokesLegs said:

Ive definitely heard Regal/Cineworld be referred to as such. 

That sad thing is I have 1k of shares in Cineworld 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Chicago

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks @keysersoze123. I have tried to make sense of other chains and yes $4M seems like it. Ideally these MTC 1 numbers would have meant $5.25M.

 

Edit: I thought MTC2 numbers were MTC1 Friday. 54K is more than what @Menor projected. So yeah $4.2M seems likely.

Idk about that. Both MTC1 and MTC2 are barely ahead of what BOP had back then (though MTC2 did do well in late hours MTC1 came in way below what I expected) and given that we have more coverage now I think more like 3.8.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-7	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	11	3	0.92%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	3	0	0.49%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	0	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			14	24	2,881	15	3	0.52%
Free Guy	T-7	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	45	6	1.04%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,604	47	15	1.80%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	68	14	3.47%
Free Guy Total			19	59	8,912	160	35	1.80%
Respect	T-7	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	12	6	0.78%
		Phoenix	6	10	1,270	7	3	0.55%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	28	3	1.73%
Respect Total			17	30	4,435	47	12	1.06%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-3	Jacksonville	4	4	553	39	7	7.05%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	43	1	65.15%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	97	17	16.03%
Respect (FP) Total			9	9	1,224	179	25	14.62%

 

As for Free Guy, well it passed Jungle Cruise 160-155 and is on pace for 2.78m now.  I remember thinking JC was doing very poorly at this point (and for most of its run), but that was due to having poor comps.  

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Don't Breathe 2	T-6	Jacksonville	5	8	1,199	13	2	1.08%
		Phoenix	4	6	612	4	1	0.65%
		Raleigh	5	10	1,070	1	0	0.09%
Don't Breathe 2 Total			14	24	2,881	18	3	0.62%
Free Guy	T-6	Jacksonville	6	27	4,347	66	21	1.52%
		Phoenix	6	15	2,604	66	19	2.53%
		Raleigh	7	17	1,961	71	3	3.62%
Free Guy Total			19	59	8,912	203	43	2.28%
Respect	T-6	Jacksonville	5	8	1,544	11	-1	0.71%
		Phoenix	6	10	1,270	9	2	0.71%
		Raleigh	6	12	1,621	28	0	1.73%
Respect Total			17	30	4,435	48	1	1.08%
Respect (Fandango Premier)	T-2	Jacksonville	4	4	553	48	9	8.68%
		Phoenix	1	1	66	44	1	66.67%
		Raleigh	4	4	605	110	13	18.18%
Respect (FP) Total			9	9	1,224	202	23	16.50%

 

Didn't expect much today with TSS opening last night, so the new sales for Free Guy are pretty surprising.  The Jungle Cruise comp bumps the preview up to 3.19m

 

Reminiscence (no previews), Protégé and Night House are all on sale for next week.  I'll probably add over the weekend or early next week to see how they look.

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Menor said:

Idk about that. Both MTC1 and MTC2 are barely ahead of what BOP had back then (though MTC2 did do well in late hours MTC1 came in way below what I expected) and given that we have more coverage now I think more like 3.8.

MTC2 is quite ahead. Per Keyser MTC2 was $611K for BoP, which in reality would be around $575K, while here its $700K. So I suppose smaller chains did better than BoP. Harkins was quite strong.