The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

8:30 BR is finishing with 11/78. It sold a total of 81/271 tonight, which is basically on par with what Kingsman sold. However, Kingsman didn't have as much capacity. Hmm.

Edited October 6, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Rumpot]

36 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

BR is

BR is also running behind Kingsman on Fandango Pulse (50 to 61avg  at 7:30pm) ...

 

At 830pm EST I'm getting 63 - this movie is doing quite well in my area (DC/VA) but aside from there and NY I think it may do a high proportion of business on the West Coast

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

BR:

 

10:15: 17/124

11:15 3D: 2/78

12:30 3D: 5/78

1:30: 0/113

3:00: 0/60

4:30: 1/124

5:15 3D: 0/78

6:30 3D: 6/78

7:45 3D: 4/113

8:30: 3/67

9:15: 0/60

10:45: 0/124

 

MBU:

 

10:45: 13/113

1:45: 10/124

5:00: 6/113

8:00: 0/124

9:30: 0/69

 

MLP:

 

10:00: 5/78

12:15: 6/60

2:45: 4/78

4:00: 0/78

6:40: 0/60

8:45: 0/78

10:00: 0/78

 

AM:

 

11:30: 2/78

2:15: 5/78

5:00: 2/78

7:45: 3/78

10:30: 0/78

 

Kingsman:

 

11:00: 4/78

1:15: 2/78

4:40: 0/78

7:00: 0/78

10:20: 0/78

 

Ninjago:

 

10:45: 0/78

2:10: 0/78

4:30: 5/78

7:50: 0/78

10:10: 0/78

 

Flatliners:

 

10:05: 2/67

12:45: 0/67

3:20: 0/67

7:15: 0/63

9:55: 0/63

 

 

BR: 38/1,097

MBU: 29/543

MLP: 15/510

AM: 12/390

Kingsman: 6/390

Ninjago: 5/390

Flatliners: 2/327

It, Sexes, and Princess and the Frog have sold nothing.

 

BR comps:

 

25% of It

70% of Kingsman

120% of THB

145% of AM

 

MLP is selling 70% of Ninjago. Can't really find any decent MBU comparisons; Home Again only sold 4 tickets the night before Friday, but that was a super walkup oriented film.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Holy fuck, Marshall is getting dumped next weekend  

 

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Happy Death Day	Universal	3,000	-	-	1
2	-	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	2,300+	-	-	1
3	-	Marshall	Open Road Films	800	-	-	1
4	-	Goodbye Christopher Robin	Fox Searchlight	8	-	-	1
5	-	Breathe (2017)	Bleecker Street	4	-	-	1
6	-	78/52: Hitchcock's Shower Scene	IFC	1	-	-	1

I'm not surprised. The marketing campaign has been completely nonexistent.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm not surprised. The marketing campaign has been completely nonexistent.

Now I'm really curious why the Twitter numbers have been decent; maybe it's because Marshall is a generic name like It and Thank You for Your Service?  

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Now I'm really curious why the Twitter numbers have been decent; maybe it's because Marshall is a generic name like It and Thank You for Your Service?  

Marhsall's Want To See on RT -  a week out is 1653.  Not promising for a wide expansion of a drama. If it had very good to great reviews and Open Road was a different kind of studio it could build on that with a limited opening.  But opening it wide... eh.

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/marshall

[WrathOfHan]

Gaaaah I don't know what to predict for Blade Runner. I have my prediction at 40M currently based on how it's selling at my theater and some of the other theaters being reported here, but it's also below what Kingsman was doing Thursday on Pulse. The only reason I haven't bumped this down below Kingsman is because the Deep Wang updates had it on par with Dunkirk and ahead of Apes. WHAT DO I DO???

 

Meanwhile, that 12-14M range for MLP looks to be accurate. 70% of Ninjago would be slightly over 14M, but given that it's more susceptible to fanbase frontloading, I have it at 13M and probably won't edit it more. I also bumped MBU up to 11.5M and considered going higher, but I don't want to get ahead of myself.

Edited October 6, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[JMorphin]

I think 40 million sounds about right.  The only comparable movie with Blade Runner's length is Interstellar, and I don't think it's matched it in interest.  Big stars should help, as it did for Interstellar, but the director is not quite as big as Nolan yet, though he is getting better known for sure.  It could easily go below Kingsman, though.

[Brainbug]

We shoudnt expect Blade Runner to enjoy big walkups or? Doesnt (nerdy) Sci-Fi tend to be presales-heavy?

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

We shoudnt expect Blade Runner to enjoy big walkups or? Doesnt (nerdy) Sci-Fi tend to be presales-heavy?

I certainly wouldn't expect this to be walkup based given it's a hard sci-fi film.

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

We shoudnt expect Blade Runner to enjoy big walkups or? Doesnt (nerdy) Sci-Fi tend to be presales-heavy?

Franchise, reserved sitting title, Sci-Fi all sound like variable that should make it at least pre-sales regular for a blockbuster or heavier.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

We shoudnt expect Blade Runner to enjoy big walkups or? Doesnt (nerdy) Sci-Fi tend to be presales-heavy?

I expected this to act like the Alien Covenant earlier this summer - big Thursday/Friday, pretty good opening and surprisingly non-existent legs...

 

As a reminder, Alien Covenant was a $4.2M Thurs, $15.3M Fri (real Fri $11.1M), 1st weekend $36M and final DOM BO $74.2M...

 

Now, this movie is reviewed a little better critically and is having a little better fan reactions so far (although many say it's loooonnng, and that's not a way to get GA), but I'd look at the Thursday number and probably plan for 8.5x-10.5x for the total weekend...

[Rumpot]

21 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I expected this to act like the Alien Covenant earlier this summer - big Thursday/Friday, pretty good opening and surprisingly non-existent legs...

 

As a reminder, Alien Covenant was a $4.2M Thurs, $15.3M Fri (real Fri $11.1M), 1st weekend $36M and final DOM BO $74.2M...

 

Now, this movie is reviewed a little better critically and is having a little better fan reactions so far (although many say it's loooonnng, and that's not a way to get GA), but I'd look at the Thursday number and probably plan for 8.5x-10.5x for the total weekend...

I think you'll see lower previews simply due to the length.  On one screen if the first showing is 7pm the next one isnt until 1030.  At that point the 1030 showing won't end until well after 1am so that will limit the numbers there

[Rumpot]

At my theater Blade Runner did $9098.68 ($1167.20 in three regular, $334.62 in two RealD, $4446.59 in two IMAX, $3150 in two Dolby).

 

This is :

-26.7% higher than Kingsman which had $7176.9

-8.6% lower than Apes which had $9958.5

-29% lower than IT which had $12,843.01

 

*The vast majority of this fell into the 7pm Dolby, 7pm Imax, and 730 Regular which combined for $6799.86 which is a higher ratio than the other listed movies for sure.  In my opinion, the second showings were just too late for an almost 3hr movie on a Thursday for this area.  This is also a thought-provoking movie one would want to pay attention.  Doesn't seem like the type you watch and go right to sleep either.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 6, 2017 by Rumpot

[filmnerdjamie]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Gaaaah I don't know what to predict for Blade Runner. I have my prediction at 40M currently based on how it's selling at my theater and some of the other theaters being reported here, but it's also below what Kingsman was doing Thursday on Pulse. The only reason I haven't bumped this down below Kingsman is because the Deep Wang updates had it on par with Dunkirk and ahead of Apes. WHAT DO I DO???

 

Meanwhile, that 12-14M range for MLP looks to be accurate. 70% of Ninjago would be slightly over 14M, but given that it's more susceptible to fanbase frontloading, I have it at 13M and probably won't edit it more. I also bumped MBU up to 11.5M and considered going higher, but I don't want to get ahead of myself.

I would say $45M is the best case scenario. Sub-$40M wouldn't shock me. And again... I just don't understand where this "It's gonna explode!" narrative is coming from outside of Internet fandom hype (who were already excited for this, in the first place). A near 3-hour sequel to a 35-year old hard-sci-fi cult classic that was an expensive flop when it first opened... and never caught on with the general public. Watchmen and Pacific Rim are the films to look at for recent examples. Solid opening day (the presales/fans talking), then stalls with iffy WOM.

 

In the state capital, there were zero sell outs tonight and the tickets sold for tomorrow morning's IMAX matinee (when my lovely love wife and I are seeing it) is 4. 2 of those are us. 

Edited October 6, 2017 by filmnerdjamie

[WrathOfHan]

11 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

I would say $45M is the best case scenario. Sub-$40M wouldn't shock me. And again... I just don't understand where this "It's gonna explode!" narrative is coming from outside of Internet fandom hype (who were already excited for this, in the first place). A near 3-hour sequel to a 35-year old hard-sci-fi cult classic that was an expensive flop when it first opened... and never caught on with the general public. Watchmen and Pacific Rim are the films to look at for recent examples. Solid opening day (the presales/fans talking), then stalls with iffy WOM.

 

In the state capital, there were zero sell outs tonight and the tickets sold for tomorrow morning's IMAX matinee (when my lovely love wife and I are seeing it) is 4. 2 of those are us. 

Yikes. You've convinced me to lower my prediction to 37M. The long runtime definitely isn't helping matters either.

[filmnerdjamie]

To be fair, that was the last time I checked several hours ago. But for quite sometime, it literally was just the 2 seats we purchased. On Tuesday morning!

 

My original prediction was $35-$40M more on the lower end of that and again, I'm willing to say $45M as a best case scenario (glowing WOM, sell outs, etc.) But so far I've seen nothing to suggest that and there are a lot of road-blocks ahead for this film. 

[DAJK]

Based on my theatre's numbers, this would be right around 3M for Thursday. 

[XO21]

3 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said:

I'm willing to say $45M as a best case scenario (glowing WOM, sell outs, etc.) But so far I've seen nothing to suggest that and there are a lot of road-blocks ahead for this film. 

I agree and I'm a huge BR fan

[Damianport1]

This will flop eh..