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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's early, so that's pretty good for both of them. The first showing of AM two weeks ago started off with 10 tickets and eventually finished with 32 (total of 40 for the night with the second show).

AM wasn't exactly a mega opened tho :P

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deadline agrees with the Box office pro forecast, Thor 3 looking at 100-110 opening as it comes on tracking 

 

http://deadline.com/2017/10/thor-ragnarok-box-office-opening-projection-1202187006/

Quote

Thor Ragnarok, the third in the series, hit tracking this morning, and it’s looking at a $100M-$110M start per industry figures with enormous strength among the four quadrants: Very strong with families, Hispanics and African Americans.

 

Good demos to be particularly strong in.

 

I love how Tracking news which comes from the same sources get reported differently by the trades.  It's not as if they do their own interpretation of the numbers - they just repeat what they're given by sources.

 

Oh and Mendelson at Forbes pipes in with this gem

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/10/12/thor-ragnarok-should-not-expect-iron-man-3-or-civil-war-level-box-office/#7893e2695dd9

Quote

The only questions for Thor: Ragnarok are A) will it make enough to power Marvel to its first $2 billion+ year (probably, since it’s already at $1.743b),

:rofl:

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Good demos to be particularly strong in.

 

I love how Tracking news which comes from the same sources get reported differently by the trades.  It's not as if they do their own interpretation of the numbers - they just repeat what they're given by sources.

 

Oh and Mendelson at Forbes pipes in with this gem

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/10/12/thor-ragnarok-should-not-expect-iron-man-3-or-civil-war-level-box-office/#7893e2695dd9

:rofl:

Never change Mendelson. He is hilarious with his BO forecasts. Some of his gems include

 

-SMH doing just 20 million in China at the low end

-SMh doing 820 total (despite it being at 740 already when he made that prediction)

- WW having a disney princess like run in Japan and doing 100m+ in Japan despite no evidence that it would

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raegr Box Office Gold

raegr

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Never change Mendelson. He is hilarious with his BO forecasts. Some of his gems include

 

-SMH doing just 20 million in China at the low end

-SMh doing 820 total (despite is being at 740 already when he made that prediction)

- WW having a disney princess like run in Japan and doing 100m+ in Japan despite no evidence that it woild. 

Let's not forget him saying that the high end for JL is 900M and that it doesn't mean much for WB

 

He also said T:R isn't that important for Box Office

 

 

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Eric Furiosa Global Phenomenon

Eric Furiosa

Posted
Posted

Theater Update Before Previews:

Spoiler

Thursday 10/12 (Tickets Sold, Total Seats, Percentage):

Happy Death Day 7:00 2 71 2.82%
Happy Death Day 9:50 2 71 2.82%
Happy Death Day Total 4 142 2.82%
Marshall 5:30 2 102 1.96%
The Foreigner 7:30 2 71 2.82%
The Foreigner 10:30 2 71 2.82%
The Foreigner Total 4 142 2.82%

 

Friday 10/13:

Happy Death Day 11 2 102 1.96%
Happy Death Day 2 0 102  
Happy Death Day 4:50 4 102 3.92%
Happy Death Day 7:40 26 102 25.49%
Happy Death Day 10:35 6 102 3.92%
Happy Death Day Total 38 510 7.45%
Marshall 11:30 2 71 2.82%
Marshall 3 2 96 2.08%
Marshall 6:10 3 96 3.13%
Marshall 9:30 0 96  
Marshall Total 7 359 1.95%
The Foreigner 12:30 0 113  
The Foreigner 3:50 2 113 1.77%
The Foreigner 7 13 113 11.50%
The Foreigner 10 0 113  
The Foreigner Total 15 452 3.32%

 

Saturday 10/14

Happy Death Day 11 0 102  
Happy Death Day 2 0 102  
Happy Death Day 4:50 0 102  
Happy Death Day 7:40 4 102 3.92%
Happy Death Day 10:35 2 102 1.96%
Happy Death Day Total 6 510 1.18%
Marshall 11:30 0 71  
Marshall 3 2 96 2.08%
Marshall 6:10 2 96 2.08%
Marshall 9:30 0 96  
Marshall Total 4 359 1.11%
The Foreigner 12:30 0 113  
The Foreigner 3:50 2 113 1.77%
The Foreigner 7 13 113 11.50%
The Foreigner 10 0 113  
The Foreigner Total 15 452 3.32%

 

Sunday 10/15

Happy Death Day 11 3 102 2.94%
Happy Death Day 2 8 102 7.84%
Happy Death Day 4:50 0 102  
Happy Death Day 7:40 0 102  
Happy Death Day 10:35 0 102  
Happy Death Day Total 11 510 2.16%

The Foreigner 12:30 0 113  
The Foreigner 3:50 2 113 1.77%
The Foreigner 7 0 113  
The Foreigner 10 0 113  
The Foreigner Total 2 452 0.44%

 

Marshall has sold nothing

 

Wednesday 11/1

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 113  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 0 113  
Bad Moms 2 7:20 12 113 10.62%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 113  
Bad Moms 2 Total 12 452 2.65%

 

Thursday 11/2

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 96  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 0 96  
Bad Moms 2 6:30 14 71 19.72%
Bad Moms 2 9:30 0 71  
Bad Moms 2 Total 14 334 4.19%
Thor 3 7:00 66 113 58.41%
Thor 3 10:25 19 113 13.27%
Thor 3 Total 85 226 37.61%

 

Friday 11/3

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 7:20 24 102 23.53%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 24 408 5.88%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 3 113 2.65%
Thor 3 3:15 5 113 4.42%
Thor 3 6:40 63 113 55.75%
Thor 3 10:05 8 113 7.08%
Thor 3 Total 79 452 17.48%

 

Saturday 11/4

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 7:20 11 102 10.78%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 11 408 2.70%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 13 113 11.50%
Thor 3 3:15 37 113 32.74%
Thor 3 6:40 47 113 41.59%
Thor 3 10:05 2 113 1.77%
Thor 3 Total 99 452 21.90%

 

Sunday 11/5

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 7:20 3 102 2.94%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 3 408 0.74%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 2 113 1.77%
Thor 3 3:15 29 113 25.66%
Thor 3 6:40 10 113 8.85%
Thor 3 10:05 0 113  
Thor 3 Total 41 452 9.07%

 

Friday 11/17

Wonder 12:20 0 96  
Wonder 3:25 0 96  
Wonder 6:30 3 96 3.13%
Wonder 9:35 0 96  
Wonder Total 3 384 0.78%

 

Thursday 12/14

Star Wars Fan Event 6 95 102 93.14%
Star Wars 7 102 102 100.00%
Star Wars 3D 7:30 113 113 100.00%
Star Wars 10:35 79 102 77.45%
Star Wars 11:05 64 113 56.64%
Star Wars Total 453 532 85.15%

 

Friday 12/15

Star Wars 11 31 102 30.39%
Star Wars 11:45 25 113 22.12%
Star Wars 2:40 66 102 64.71%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 34 113 30.09%
Star Wars 6:20 102 102 100.00%
Star Wars 7 113 113 100.00%
Star Wars 9:55 71 102 69.61%
Star Wars 10:35 44 113 38.94%
Star Wars Total 486 860 56.51%

 

Saturday 12/16

Star Wars 11 67 102 65.69%
Star Wars 11:45 81 113 71.68%
Star Wars 2:40 74 102 72.55%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 44 113 38.94%
Star Wars 6:20 76 102 74.51%
Star Wars 7 76 113 67.26%
Star Wars 9:55 34 102 33.33%
Star Wars 10:35 2 113 1.77%
Star Wars Total 454 860 52.79%

 

Sunday 12/17

Star Wars 11 54 102 52.94%
Star Wars 11:45 57 113 50.44%
Star Wars 2:40 53 102 51.96%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 48 113 42.48%
Star Wars 6:20 67 102 65.69%
Star Wars 7 35 113 30.97%
Star Wars 9:55 0 102  
Star Wars 10:35 0 113  
Star Wars Total 314 860 36.51%
 

 

Overall Total:

Happy Death Day 59 1672 3.53%
Marshall 13 1179 1.10%
The Foreigner 36 1498 2.40%
Bad Moms 2 64 2010 3.18%
Thor 3 304 1582 19.22%
Wonder 3 1294 0.23%
Star Wars 1707 3112 54.85%
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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

Tracking is just percentages of awareness, though, right? So likely this just reflects one analyst's interpretation of the data versus another's. 

Yes, depending of the bank of comparable used and the genre you put it in, similar tracking will give you a different estimate for the OW.

 

Historically those were the variable tracked (by quadrant) and used to built an estimate

 

Awareness:

  • Unaided (they talk about the movie without you asking them/suggesting it)
  • aided: If you mention a movie, they know/remember what you are talking about

 

Interests among aware:

  • Definitely going to see
  • probably going to see
  • Definitely not going to see

 

Choice

  • First choice
  • Top 3

 

The weight giving to each variable change depending of the how far from release you are and which variable are used change from genre (for animated movies the parent just need to know they exist mostly, know what they are exactly, for Blade Runner you need unaided awareness, that something only people know what it is will likely see and not the family deciding they are going to theater today because it rain, and so on).

 

From those variable there is not a good tracking answer, there is a different model giving different values.

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