The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[raegr]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If you all remember, Spidey's presales (just like WW) indicated a smaller OW.  Original estimates from Deadline Friday morning indicated $95-$100M+ Spidey OW even after the high Thursday number.  By midday, Deadline moved it up to $105M, and then overestimated to $125-$127M after full Fri numbers, before it settled at $117M.  This is a long way of saying Spidey's presales looked like a $95-$100M OW...not a $117M one...  

 

So, pacing Spidey presales would actually indicate a $95-$100M OW, not a $117M one...especially since 3rd sequels are less likely to be the type of movie that walks up unexpectedly like WW and Spidey did...yes, you can all now jump and say Spidey was a 6th sequel and WW was a 2nd one...but not in ways that count:)...

It's alright. They will learn the dangers of over predicting very soon. 

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If you all remember, Spidey's presales (just like WW) indicated a smaller OW.  Original estimates from Deadline Friday morning indicated $95-$100M+ Spidey OW even after the high Thursday number.  By midday, Deadline moved it up to $105M, and then overestimated to $125-$127M after full Fri numbers, before it settled at $117M.  This is a long way of saying Spidey's presales looked like a $95-$100M OW...not a $117M one...  

 

So, pacing Spidey presales would actually indicate a $95-$100M OW, not a $117M one...especially since 3rd sequels are less likely to be the type of movie that walks up unexpectedly like WW and Spidey did...yes, you can all now jump and say Spidey was a 6th sequel and WW was a 2nd one...but not in ways that count:)...

I was doing an example at my theater. It's gotten things right like It outpacing Homecoming. Other things wrong like Kingsman over Apes and BR over Kingsman.

 

Even with the actual presales data we got, WW using said data, was looking at an OW around $110M, however the NBA finals took steam away from presales. Homecoming had the same data as WW too so.

Edited October 15, 2017 by YourMother

[The Panda]

Comparing pre-sales, even within franchises, to predict OW is dangerous.  Especially given they're two different movies opening at different times.  Thor also has to deal with things like NFL and College Football eating away at weekend business compared to HC.

 

However, online buzz and trailer views are really strong Ragnorak.  It'll also coming off of a crowded, yet barren October.  I think it has a strong shot at having a 120-130m OW.

 

However, I'd be leary about legs given how much competition it'll face going forward.

 

Something like 110 - 130m / 280 - 330m would make sense.  It also fits with the MCU range we've had.

Edited October 15, 2017 by The Pumpkin Spice Panda

[raegr]

Just now, The Pumpkin Spice Panda said:

Comparing pre-sales, even within franchises, to predict OW is dangerous.  Especially given they're two different movies opening at different times.

 

However, online buzz and trailer views are really strong Ragnorak.  It'll also coming off of a crowded, yet barren October.  I think it has a strong shot at having a 120-130m OW.

 

However, I'd be leary about legs given how much competition it'll face going forward.

 

Something like 110 - 130m / 280 - 330m would make sense.  It also fits with the MCU range we've had.

It will be and perform like the average MCU film

 

Point blank AND the period. 

[YM!]

Tracking seems nice for it. Especially in the family, Hispanic and African Americans area. I'm thinking it'll have an OW anywhere from $95M-$120M. I'm thinking $110M-$115M given a normal MCU sequel bump.

Edited October 15, 2017 by YourMother

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, raegr said:

It will be and perform like the average MCU film

 

Point blank AND the period. 

Ragnorak going anywhere over 200m is overperforming from what a Thor 3 movie should do, especially after a not-well-liked second film.  If it pulls 300m that's an impressive hall.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 hours ago, YourMother said:

Running 60% ahead of Homecoming at about the same time. However it's possible the fan screening cause the 9:00 one to inflate, so without the 6:00 showing it's running 20% ahead of Homecoming.

 

2 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

And Homecoming "only" had a $117M Opening Weekend.
Thor 3 could be something special.

You are right.  Spider-Man had a terrible OW so hopefully Thor 3 is tracking 50% ahead of Spider-Man up until release to get that 120M+OW

[YM!]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

 

You are right.  Spider-Man had a terrible OW so hopefully Thor 3 is tracking 50% ahead of Spider-Man up until release to get that 120M+OW

This is at my theater, one of many. Our actual data via Deep Throat it seems like $100M-$105M OW.

[raegr]

9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

 

 

Edited October 15, 2017 by raegr

[YM!]

Just now, raegr said:

That's his incognito name.

[raegr]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

That's his incognito name.

(I feel filthy for posting that, anyway to delete your comment, or account in general?)

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

This is at my theater, one of many. Our actual data via Deep Throat it seems like $100M-$105M OW.

Deep Wang, Deep Throat is something completely different!

[XO21]

$100-105m puts it above TASM2 OW...that’s very likely. I don’t buy -as a marvel fan- the huge hype beyond the fanbase

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

Deep Wang, Deep Throat is something completely different!

Oh. Well I was somewhat right.

[keysersoze123]

Extrapolating OW BO from one theater just not make sense. Deep Wang's data at least for a chain that is across the country. So comparing it to Guardians 2 or Wondy or Spidey is the best best.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Extrapolating OW BO from one theater just not make sense. Deep Wang's data at least for a chain that is across the country. So comparing it to Guardians 2 or Wondy or Spidey is the best best.

I use Wang's mainly but it's nice to track your own theater as well.

[Rumpot]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Extrapolating OW BO from one theater just not make sense. Deep Wang's data at least for a chain that is across the country. So comparing it to Guardians 2 or Wondy or Spidey is the best best.

What chain?

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

I was doing an example at my theater. It's gotten things right like It outpacing Homecoming. Other things wrong like Kingsman over Apes and BR over Kingsman.

 

Even with the actual presales data we got, WW using said data, was looking at an OW around $110M, however the NBA finals took steam away from presales. Homecoming had the same data as WW too so.

Nah, after Thursday's $11M, Deadline stuck to a $90M estimate...and tracking was the same $90M that week (per Deadline's article)...then midday Friday, it moved to $95M+, then $97.1M in Sat morning update...and finally $103M...

 

You have to assume Thor needs to beat both movies presales pretty handily for it to open at those movie's OW figures...but it will have a nice open month to make those sales, so Thor fans should take heart:)...

 

 

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

What chain?

 

Sorry thou shall not talk about deep wang's chain. 

[WrathOfHan]

31 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

What chain?

Let's just say it's a big one.