The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YM!]

Looks like either DH2 or MOTOE is getting Ultrascreen at my theater but which one.

[Napoleon]

29 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Current JL sales is about 58% of current Thor sales.

 

We probably won’t get another update till Monday or Tuesday evening. At that point I can probably comp Thor to all recent movies.

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M

- SMH was 6.4M

- WW was 5.6M

- Deadpool was 4.5M

This means BVS 9.2M = 92% of what Civil War's presales were, right?

 

Can you give us the % of JL and Ragnarok at this point compared to CW's total?

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Napoleon said:

This means BVS 9.2M = 92% of what Civil War's presales were, right?

 

Can you give us the % of JL and Ragnarok at this point compared to CW's total?

I don’t think early data (the first two days) for CW is available.

[ZeeSoh]

55 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Current JL sales is about 58% of current Thor sales.

 

We probably won’t get another update till Monday or Tuesday evening. At that point I can probably comp Thor to all recent movies.

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M

- SMH was 6.4M

- WW was 5.6M

- Deadpool was 4.5M

 

Wow this is remarkable the correlation between presales and opening weekend. I am assuming the presales numbers (or rather correlation) are of final numbers. If so then the ratio of Presales of the following movie compared to CW lines up very very closely to their opening weekends compared to CW.

 

The percentages below are of that movie OW relative to CW OW

 

BvS - 9.2 - 92.7%

Guardians 2 - 8.3 - 81.8%

Suicide Squad - 7.2 - 74.7%

SMH - 6.5 - 65.3%

WW - 5.6 - 57.7%

 

The only outlier from the above list is Deadpool. It had 4.5m sales to 10m of CW but its opening weekend was 74% of CW.

 

I know pre-sales numbers are not always considered an accurate indication of OW here. But this shows that for at least most SH movies the presales numbers are a pretty good indication of OW. It would be interesting to see if Thor 3 and JL follows this trend or if they will be more along the lines of Deadpool

Edited October 28, 2017 by ZeeSoh

[Mojoguy]

Thor 3 presales basically NEED to be number one right now, it's going to frontloaded being a sequel and it's the next big movie coming out.

[FlashMaster659]

@DeeCee: Ragnarok DOM OW 115m-135m based on very early Australia numbers.

Edited October 29, 2017 by FlashMaster659

[DAJK]

JL tickets at my theatre are pretty much neck and neck with Thor at the same point in their sales cycles.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

@DeeCee: Ragnarok DOM OW 115m-135m based on very early Australia numbers.

 

That is not tracking or buzz. its just an extrapolation. Does not always play well. Wondy looked like 70-80m based on AU opening and you know where it ended. 

 

Anyway I cant see Thor 3 playing any different than  Guardians. Both are sequels with known SH. Its OW will have similar PS multi to Guardians. Let us see how things end next week. 

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

That is not tracking or buzz. its just an extrapolation. Does not always play well. Wondy looked like 70-80m based on AU opening and you know where it ended. 

 

Anyway I cant see Thor 3 playing any different than  Guardians. Both are sequels with known SH. Its OW will have similar PS multi to Guardians. Let us see how things end next week. 

The only two strong outliers to the Australia/US CBM o/w ratio I can recall are WW and TWS

 

Thor 3 has much better reviews than GOTG2 so WOM may not only impact it's o/w but internal multplier

[Mojoguy]

Wondy looked like 70-80m based on AU opening and you know where it ended.

Australia, you freaking FAILED Wonder Woman!

Edited October 29, 2017 by Mojoguy

[MattW]

Seems like if anything Thor 3 would play stronger in australia relative to the US.  

[keysersoze123]

46 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The only two strong outliers to the Australia/US CBM o/w ratio I can recall are WW and TWS

 

Thor 3 has much better reviews than GOTG2 so WOM may not only impact it's o/w but internal multplier

 

As someone posted in AU BO thread, This movie will skew more AU as not only it has Aussie lead but it has Cate Blanchett as well. Plus only true data we can extrapolate is "deep wang" numbers. We can compare with similar Marvel movies. 

 

 

[MaxAggressor]

5 minutes of Pulse watch 2/3 (not sure which one is accurate) hours ago showed that Ragnarok sold around 105 tickets and JL sold around 50 tickets. I tracked Pulse for 5 minutes again just moments before posting and this time Ragnarok sold around 115 tickets and JL sold around 65 tickets.

[YM!]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

As someone posted in AU BO thread, This movie will skew more AU as not only it has Aussie lead but it has Cate Blanchett as well. Plus only true data we can extrapolate is "deep wang" numbers. We can compare with similar Marvel movies. 

 

 

Didn’t Wang say something about Homecoming being 70% of what Thor was at same time.

[YM!]

15 hours ago, grim22 said:

Similarly, SMH started 2 and a half weeks before and the sales of it were 25% of Thor a week ago and now they are 70% of Thor.

 

[ZeeSoh]

33 minutes ago, YourMother said:

 

Yes but conversely Thor's at 70% of Guardians. Using SMH as comparision would give Thor 3 a 167 ow. Using Guardians 2 presales as comparision gives 103 ow. As you can see using pre sales numbers right now is problematic as different movies had different presales cycle and behaviour. The best bet would be to wait till Thursday for the final presales number. They will give a more accurate indication of OW. 

 

 

That being said I think the ow will be far closer to 103 then to 167. IMO things point to 110 unless presales pick up a lot in the last 5 days before release. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yes but conversely Thor's at 70% of Guardians. Using SMH as comparision would give Thor 3 a 167 ow. Using Guardians 2 presales as comparision gives 103 ow. As you can see using pre sales numbers right now is problematic as different movies had different presales cycle and behaviour. The best bet would be to wait till Thursday for the final presales number. They will give a more accurate indication of OW. 

 

 

That being said I think the ow will be far closer to 103 then to 167. IMO things point to 110 unless presales pick up a lot in the last 5 days before release. 

I agree. I’m thinking around $100M-$120M for OW.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, YourMother said:

Didn’t Wang say something about Homecoming being 70% of what Thor was at same time.

Then spidey exploded in it's final week as it's ow was in line with PS. So for Thor 3 to finish at similar level it's PS has to beat Guardians 2.

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Then spidey exploded in it's final week as it's ow was in line with PS. So for Thor 3 to finish at similar level it's PS has to beat Guardians 2.

I disagree. To finish at SMH level Thor's PS should finish around SMH. It does need guardians level PS to do SMH number. For reason see my last post showing correlation between final PS and opening weekend. 

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I disagree. To finish at SMH level Thor's PS should finish around SMH. It does need guardians level PS to do SMH number. For reason see my last post showing correlation between final PS and opening weekend. 

 

I am not sure I got what you said. Spidey finished 75% of Guardians 2 PS. So if Spidey PS(as of similar point) is 30% below Thor 3 and Thor 3 is 68% of Guardians 2 PS, SMH at this point should have been 48% of Guardians PS. So either @grim22 got the numbers wrong or Spidey exploded like crazy over final week. So I dont know what is there to disagree.