The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[grim22]

Deep Wang updates:

- Thor number is at about 68% of Guardians 2 at the same point in time

- JL doubled since the last update

- Bad Moms still doing well for a comedy

- Daddy’s Home 2 has sold less than 150 tickets so far 

- MOTOE is fine I guess, hard to judge till release week

[FlashMaster659]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang updates:

- Thor number is at about 68% of Guardians 2 at the same point in time

- JL doubled since the last update

- Bad Moms still doing well for a comedy

- Daddy’s Home 2 has sold less than 150 tickets so far 

- MOTOE is fine I guess, hard to judge till release week

TLJ?

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

35 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang updates:

- Thor number is at about 68% of Guardians 2 at the same point in time

- JL doubled since the last update

- Bad Moms still doing well for a comedy

- Daddy’s Home 2 has sold less than 150 tickets so far 

- MOTOE is fine I guess, hard to judge till release week

Wait weren't JL presales already huge?How the hell they doubled?

[Brainiac5]

18 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Wait weren't JL presales already huge?How the hell they doubled?

Hype 

[MattW]

21 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Wait weren't JL presales already huge?How the hell they doubled?

BatB went from $650k after 24 hours to $1m after 48 hours, an increase of 54% for the second 24hr period.  JL tickets went on sale on Wednesday, so it doubled it's day one sales after an additional 2.5 days, more or less a similar pace as BatB.

Edited October 28, 2017 by MattW

[Brainiac5]

11 minutes ago, MattW said:

BatB went from $650k after 24 hours to $1m after 48 hours, an increase of 54% for the second 24hr period.  JL tickets went on sale on Wednesday, so it doubled it's day one sales after an additional 2.5 days, more or less a similar pace as BatB.

“Similar “ on the positive side or the negative side ?

Is JL ahead at this point ?

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang updates:

- Thor number is at about 68% of Guardians 2 at the same point in time

- JL doubled since the last update

- Bad Moms still doing well for a comedy

- Daddy’s Home 2 has sold less than 150 tickets so far 

- MOTOE is fine I guess, hard to judge till release week

So, Thor has been slowly falling behind GOTG 2 with every update...probably won't fall too much more behind, but it's becoming clearer that Bad Moms 2 is definitely pulling audience right now...

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Brainiac5 said:

“Similar “ on the positive side or the negative side ?

Is JL ahead at this point ?

BATB made over $500M DOM...to be in the conversation with it either way is a very good sign:)...

Edited October 28, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[MattW]

On 10/26/2017 at 9:28 AM, grim22 said:

- JL sold well, no comps readily available but its the best first 16 hours for any movie not named Star Wars among the comps we know (for BvS and Civil War we didn’t get the first day sales figures). The first day numbers should end up being close to where WW was on Monday of release and SS was on Friday before release

 

On 10/26/2017 at 11:03 AM, grim22 said:

 

Just confirmed this from the prior thread, JL will edge out BATB for highest first day sales at this chain for something without Star Wars in the title. Again though, the caveat is that we don't know BvS or Civil War first day sales. BATB was 650k in 24 hours and 1M in 48 hours.

 

23 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

“Similar “ on the positive side or the negative side ?

Is JL ahead at this point ?

It was just ahead of BatB for the first day of sales, not sure if it's staying ahead but like I said adding 100% in 2.5 days is probably a similar pace to adding 54% in 24 hours, I'd guess slightly behind edit: actually reverse that, I'd guess it's slightly ahead based on the way these kinds of curves go.  Without the exact figures can't say for sure though.  

Edited October 28, 2017 by MattW
ahead/behind

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, MattW said:

 

 

It was just ahead of BatB for the first day of sales, not sure if it's staying ahead but like I said adding 100% in 2.5 days is probably a similar pace to adding 54% in 24 hours, I'd guess slightly behind based on the way these kinds of curves go.  Without the exact figures can't say for sure though.  

We didn't get any further BATB updates for another 10 days post the first 48 hours. So that comp is basically useless going forward anyway. JL is >100% ahead of Suicide Squad's first 2.5 days.

[Brainiac5]

9 minutes ago, grim22 said:

We didn't get any further BATB updates for another 10 days post the first 48 hours. So that comp is basically useless going forward anyway. JL is >100% ahead of Suicide Squad's first 2.5 days.

[grim22]

39 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, Thor has been slowly falling behind GOTG 2 with every update...probably won't fall too much more behind, but it's becoming clearer that Bad Moms 2 is definitely pulling audience right now...

A lot of it might have to do with when tickets went on sale. Thor went on sale 2 months before release, Guardians was just a month before so obviously the sales for Guardians were more backloaded. Similarly, SMH started 2 and a half weeks before and the sales of it were 25% of Thor a week ago and now they are 70% of Thor. It's definitely interesting to see how the patterns work depending on when tickets go on sale for sure.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

21 minutes ago, grim22 said:

We didn't get any further BATB updates for another 10 days post the first 48 hours. So that comp is basically useless going forward anyway. JL is >100% ahead of Suicide Squad's first 2.5 days.

Da fuq?270M OW confirmed

[grim22]

Just now, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Da fuq?270M OW confirmed

300M OW @CJohn

 

 Based on that logic though, TLJ will get about 3B OW  

[MaxAggressor]

36 minutes ago, grim22 said:

JL is >100% ahead of Suicide Squad's first 2.5 days.

Earlier you said, JL's pre-sales figure after 24 hours should be close to that of WW's pre-sales on Monday before release and Skwad's pre-sales on Friday before release. So does it mean that if JL were to open on it's 1st day of ticket sales, it would have opened close to wherever WW's 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure would have been on the Monday before release?? The same goes for Skwad's 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure on the Friday before it's release.

 

IIRC, Skwad tickets also went on sale 3 weeks before it's theatrical release. So JL being 100% ahead in pre-sales is a very good sign, right?? Does it not point to at-least 150m+ OW already??

 

Also aren't these numbers extremely good considering that JL has a direct competition from another behemoth CBM that opens in less than 6 day's time?? Shouldn't JL's numbers be a bit hamstrung due to the strong competition from Ragnarok?? So once Ragnarok's OW is out of the way, JL's numbers will shoot up.

 

Also do we get an accurate estimate or a close enough range for the OW of a huge opener with these pre-sales figures??

[CJohn]

43 minutes ago, grim22 said:

300M OW @CJohn

 

 Based on that logic though, TLJ will get about 3B OW  

I need to get that train rolling again

[grim22]

27 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Earlier you said, JL's pre-sales figure after 24 hours should be close to that of WW's pre-sales on Monday before release and Skwad's pre-sales on Friday before release. So does it mean that if JL were to open on it's 1st day of ticket sales, it would have opened close to wherever WW's 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure would have been on the Monday before release?? The same goes for Skwad's 'pre-sales to OW' converted figure on the Friday before it's release.

 

IIRC, Skwad tickets also went on sale 3 weeks before it's theatrical release. So JL being 100% ahead in pre-sales is a very good sign, right?? Does it not point to at-least 150m+ OW already??

 

Also aren't these numbers extremely good considering that JL has a direct competition from another behemoth CBM that opens in less than 6 day's time?? Shouldn't JL's numbers be a bit hamstrung due to the strong competition from Ragnarok?? So once Ragnarok's OW is out of the way, JL's numbers will shoot up.

 

Also do we get an accurate estimate or a close enough range for the OW of a huge opener with these pre-sales figures??

It could just be that it is stronger out of the gate as opposed to getting more presales the week of release. The week of release figures and escalation will tell us a much clearer story.

[keysersoze123]

how about JL sales relative to current Thor sales? 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

how about JL sales relative to current Thor sales? 

As of right now at my locals...updating from previously posted #s from Thursday afternoon (aka 48 hours ago)...

1st local Thursday previews - this local has JL flying high
Thor 4 shows - 2 3d 57/90 (up 7), 11/90 (dropped 2 which is weird), 2 2d 94/125 (same), 57/125 (up 1)
JL 4 shows - 2 3d 54/90 (up 18), 9/90 (up 6), 2 2d 93/165 (up 15), 81/165 (up 26)
 
Total Thor 3d 68/180 (up 5)
Total Thor 2d 151/250 (up 1)

Total Thor 219/430 (up 6)
 
Total JL 3d 63/180 (up 24)
Total JL 2d 174/330 (up 41)

Total JL 237/510 (up 65)

 

So, this theater's Thursday previews has JL outselling Thor right now - I expect it to add an additional JL screen by OW if not sooner...I don't believe my 2nd local is that good (although it already has JL in an extra screen), but I'm gonna tally it up now to give some idea of multiple theaters and chains actual numbers and edit it onto this post...

 

2nd local sales for all Thursday previews as of RIGHT now...

 

Thor 4 shows (2 3d, 2 2d) 3d 8/175 (same), 2/185 (same)  2d 89/175 (up 2), 74/185 (up 18)
JL 6 shows (2 3d, 4 2d) 3d 12/110 (up 2), 0/110 (same) 2d 14/185 (up 3), 31/175 (same), 5/185 (up 4), 2/175 (same)

 

Thor 3d 10/360 (same)
Thor 2d 163/360 (up 20)

Total Thor 173/720 (Up 20)

 

JL 3d 12/220 (up 2)
JL 2d 52/720 (up 7)

Total JL 64/940 (up 9)

 

So, 2 stories from 2 chains (Regal and Cinemark, if you're wondering:) - Regal site JL is already outselling Thor, while the Cinemark site has a ways to go.  If you put them together, here's the numbers:)...

 

Total Thor 392/1150

Total JL 301/1450

 

Edited October 28, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[grim22]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

how about JL sales relative to current Thor sales? 

Current JL sales is about 58% of current Thor sales.

 

We probably won’t get another update till Monday or Tuesday evening. At that point I can probably comp Thor to all recent movies.

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M

- SMH was 6.4M

- WW was 5.6M

- Deadpool was 4.5M