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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

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8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I am not sure I got what you said. Spidey finished 75% of Guardians 2 PS. So if Spidey PS(as of similar point) is 30% below Thor 3 and Thor 3 is 68% of Guardians 2 PS, SMH at this point should have been 48% of Guardians PS. So either @grim22 got the numbers wrong or Spidey exploded like crazy over final week. So I dont know what is there to disagree. 

SMH increased a lot on Wednesday and Thursday. It was neck and neck with WW at the start of Wednesday and finished ahead in final presales.

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

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59 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I am not sure I got what you said. Spidey finished 75% of Guardians 2 PS. So if Spidey PS(as of similar point) is 30% below Thor 3 and Thor 3 is 68% of Guardians 2 PS, SMH at this point should have been 48% of Guardians PS. So either @grim22 got the numbers wrong or Spidey exploded like crazy over final week. So I dont know what is there to disagree. 

 

50 minutes ago, grim22 said:

SMH increased a lot on Wednesday and Thursday. It was neck and neck with WW at the start of Wednesday and finished ahead in final presales.

Here's the last SMH update I can find, shows clearly all the relevant comps at that time

 

 

On 7/5/2017 at 11:38 PM, grim22 said:

Thanks to Deep Wang, we have an update.

 

Dunkirk passed Apes (single movie) but is slightly behind Apes+Apes triple feature.

 

SMH still running at about 45-50% of the presales of Guardians 2, no Wonder Woman comp was provided for Wednesday, but based on the WW comp which was provided for Thursday, I would say they are still running at the same pace. The WW figure provided on Thursday is about 2M more than the SMH Wednesday figure, but based on the increase from Tuesday, I think they will end at roughly the exact same number.

 

Girls Trip sales are actually really good. Don't have Bad Moms sales this far out to compare, but it looks like it will match or exceed Bad Moms presales by release.

 

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ZeeSoh Blockbuster

ZeeSoh

Posted
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58 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I am not sure I got what you said. Spidey finished 75% of Guardians 2 PS. So if Spidey PS(as of similar point) is 30% below Thor 3 and Thor 3 is 68% of Guardians 2 PS, SMH at this point should have been 48% of Guardians PS. So either @grim22 got the numbers wrong or Spidey exploded like crazy over final week. So I dont know what is there to disagree. 

I disagree with your assertion that Thor's PS has to finish around Guardians 2 level for Thor to open around SMH ow. It doesnt need to do that. If Thors PS is around Guardians level then it will open around guardians OW. 

 

And yes Thor is running ahead of SMH in terms of PS right now and about 70% of Guardians. But as Grim mentioned SMH's PS exploded in the final week. 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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10 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I disagree with your assertion that Thor's PS has to finish around Guardians 2 level for Thor to open around SMH ow. It doesnt need to do that. If Thors PS is around Guardians level then it will open around guardians OW. 

 

And yes Thor is running ahead of SMH in terms of PS right now and about 70% of Guardians. But as Grim mentioned SMH's PS exploded in the final week. 

I disagree, but not for reasons posted.

 

Thor 3 will probably not have the same walk ups as GOTG 2 for 2 reasons...it's a 3rd, not a 2nd film...and it's coming off a disliked sequel, not an incredibly liked premier film.  So, it's presales will probably not be the perfect % of other movies compared to CW...Relying just on Math that pretty much is only looking at premier concepts vs Civil War isn't the best idea...I mean BvS (premier), WW (premier), Spidey (premier for new version...but its late presale spike indicated folks needed to feel that premier feel vs #6 feel), Deadpool (premier), GOTG 2 (only 2nd edition)...

 

 

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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6 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

I disagree with your assertion that Thor's PS has to finish around Guardians 2 level for Thor to open around SMH ow. It doesnt need to do that. If Thors PS is around Guardians level then it will open around guardians OW. 

 

And yes Thor is running ahead of SMH in terms of PS right now and about 70% of Guardians. But as Grim mentioned SMH's PS exploded in the final week. 

What I was to say that for Thor 3 to be continue to ahead of SMH by end of PS it has exceed Guardians PS. I dont see that happening as both are sequels and Thor is so far back.

 

But if it does buck the trend and come closer to Guardians PS then its final OW will be in the similar ballbark. So with 80% of Guardians PS it will open around 115m and 90% around 130m. 70% would mean around 100m. 

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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1 hour ago, DeeCee said:

This is a very good opening weekend.  The opening on a Wednesday does muddy the comparison slightly.  You also have to take into account the obvious Australian connections although I don't think they add a huge amount to it's box office in Australia.  Taika Waititi is also much better well known in Australia then Domestic.  Boy and Wilderpeople both did very well here.  I'm going to give these factors a 10% boost for Australia relative to Domestic.
 
As @aabattery points out Ragnarok beat SMH by $8,512. However, when allowing for the Wednesday opening and the fact SMH had school holidays Ragnarok really did much better against SMH.
 
I'm going to create an adjusted weekend by moving half of Wednesday into the weekend to give an adjust 4 day of AUD10.537.  To allow for the Aussie/Taika factor let's take off 10% to give AUD9.5m. (Yes, this is partially arbitrary but this is all part math and part gut instinct.  It's the vibe)
 
At this point I'm going to use Doctor Strange as the main comparison as it opened the same time last year and had a comparable performance over the opening weekend.  The adjusted Ragnarok OW of AUD9.5m is 1.47 times DS in Australia.
 
USD85m x 1.47 gives a Domestic OW of USD125m.  I'll give a range of USD118-132m.

 

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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

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Posted (edited)
On 10/29/2017 at 2:02 PM, TwoMisfits said:

I disagree, but not for reasons posted.

 

Thor 3 will probably not have the same walk ups as GOTG 2 for 2 reasons...it's a 3rd, not a 2nd film...and it's coming off a disliked sequel, not an incredibly liked premier film.  So, it's presales will probably not be the perfect % of other movies compared to CW...Relying just on Math that pretty much is only looking at premier concepts vs Civil War isn't the best idea...I mean BvS (premier), WW (premier), Spidey (premier for new version...but its late presale spike indicated folks needed to feel that premier feel vs #6 feel), Deadpool (premier), GOTG 2 (only 2nd edition)...

 

 

I have to disagree here.

 

A sequel (GOTG2) where the previous film was very beloved will be more frontloaded and have fewer walk ups than a surprise hit (Thor 3).

 

 

Edited by grey ghost
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TheDarkKnightOfSteel Box Office Gold

TheDarkKnightOfSteel

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Probably insignifcant,but got in touch with my friend who works at my country's biggest theater chain.Note,my country is not big at all on presales and they only do them for blockbusters.Anyway,

 

Star Wras has almost sold out every screenin during its openind day.Those screenigs that are not sold out are still more than half full.

 

JUstice League is performing great as well.Tickets went on sale noon on this past Saturday.The 2 (out of 3 most expensive showings) are more than half full and the rest(in regular format or in regular format but better sound) are also doing great.The employee also tols me that the presales usually get a bump during Monday-Wednday were a lot of people attend the theaters so i will check again on Wednsday.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Pulse is pretty much just Thor, JL and Star Wars right now. Wonder how bad the theater losses will be through November for current movies.

Everything will be pretty much gone by the weekend Justice League comes out. Theaters will just book up as many prints of the new releases as they see fit.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
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33 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Pulse is pretty much just Thor, JL and Star Wars right now. Wonder how bad the theater losses will be through November for current movies.

There won't be any current movies left in theaters by JL...and certainly not by Coco:)...except at those mega, mega plexes that have to fill screens with something:)...

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

There won't be any current movies left in theaters by JL...and certainly not by Coco:)...except at those mega, mega plexes that have to fill screens with something:)...

I'm sure even 24-screen theaters will be rid of these movies too. There's at least 9 wide releases coming up between this weekend and Thanksgiving (Bad Moms, Thor, Daddy's Home 2, Murder on the Orient Express, Justice League, The Star, Wonder, Coco, Roman J. Israel), some of which will certainly get multiple bookings.

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Eric the IF Global Phenomenon

Eric the IF

Posted
Posted

Last Thursday's Tickets Sold

Spoiler

Wednesday 11/1

 

Bad Moms 2 1:30 4 113 3.54%
Bad Moms 2 4:30 4 113 3.54%
Bad Moms 2 7:20 36 113 31.86%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 113  
Bad Moms 2 Total 44 452 9.73%

 

Thursday 11/2

 

Bad Moms 2 1:30 2 96 2.08%
Bad Moms 2 4:30 3 96 3.13%
Bad Moms 2 6:30 33 71 46.48%
Bad Moms 2 9:30 0 71  
Bad Moms 2 Total 38 334 11.38%
Thor 3 7:00 78 113 69.03%
Thor 3 10:25 39 113 34.51%
Thor 3 Total 117 226 51.77%

 

Friday 11/3

 

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 7:20 58 102 56.86%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 58 408 14.22%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 3 113 2.65%
Thor 3 3:15 13 113 11.50%
Thor 3 6:40 89 113 78.76%
Thor 3 10:05 23 113 20.35%
Thor 3 Total 128 452 28.32%

 

Saturday 11/4

 

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 15 102 14.71%
Bad Moms 2 7:20 38 102 37.25%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 53 408 12.99%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 26 113 23.01%
Thor 3 3:15 55 113 48.67%
Thor 3 6:40 75 113 66.37%
Thor 3 10:05 13 113 11.50%
Thor 3 Total 169 452 37.39%

 

Sunday 11/5

 

Bad Moms 2 1:30 5 102 4.90%
Bad Moms 2 4:30 9 102 8.82%
Bad Moms 2 7:20 17 102 16.67%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 31 408 7.60%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 18 113 15.93%
Thor 3 3:15 51 113 45.13%
Thor 3 6:40 27 113 23.89%
Thor 3 10:05 0 113  
Thor 3 Total 96 452 21.24%

 

Thursday 11/16

 

Justice League 6 35 113 30.97%
Justice League 9:10 22 113 19.47%
Justice League Total 57 226 25.22%
Wonder 7 3 71 4.23%
Wonder 10:05 0 71  
Wonder Total 3 142 2.11%

 

Friday 11/17

 

Justice League 10 4 113 3.54%
Justice League 3D 1:10 0 113  
Justice League 4:20 21 113 18.58%
Justice League 7:30 24 113 21.24%
Justice League 10:35 0 113  
Justice League Total 49 565 8.67%
Wonder 12:20 0 96  
Wonder 3:25 0 96  
Wonder 6:30 6 96 6.25%
Wonder 9:35 0 96  
Wonder Total 6 384 1.56%

 

Saturday 11/18

 

Justice League 10 2 113 1.77%
Justice League 3D 1:10 2 113 1.77%
Justice League 4:20 29 113 25.66%
Justice League 7:30 18 113 15.93%
Justice League 10:35 3 113 2.65%
Justice League Total 54 565 9.56%

 

Wonder hasn't sold anything yet.

 

Sunday 11/19

 

Justice League 10 0 113  
Justice League 3D 1:10 2 113 1.77%
Justice League 4:20 11 113 9.73%
Justice League 7:30 2 113  
Justice League 10:35 0 113  
Justice League Total 15 565 2.65%
Wonder 12:20 11 96 11.46%
Wonder 3:25 0 96  
Wonder 6:30 0 96  
Wonder 9:35 0 96  
Wonder Total 11 384 2.86%

 

Thursday 12/14

 

Star Wars Fan Event 6 102 102 93.14%
Star Wars 7 102 102 100.00%
Star Wars 3D 7:30 113 113 100.00%
Star Wars 8 77 96 80.21%
Star Wars 10:35 79 102 77.45%
Star Wars 11:05 68 113 60.18%
Star Wars Total 541 628 86.15%

 

Friday 12/15

 

Star Wars 11 34 102 33.33%
Star Wars 11:45 33 113 29.20%
Star Wars 1 3 102 2.94%
Star Wars 2:40 65 102 63.73%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 39 113 34.51%
Star Wars 4:40 39 102 38.24%
Star Wars 6:20 102 102 100.00%
Star Wars 7 113 113 100.00%
Star Wars 8:20 67 102 65.69%
Star Wars 9:55 71 102 69.61%
Star Wars 10:35 48 113 42.48%
Star Wars Total 614 1166 52.66%

 

Saturday 12/16

 

Star Wars 9:20 5 102 4.90%
Star Wars 11 73 102 71.57%
Star Wars 11:45 81 113 71.68%
Star Wars 1 47 102 46.08%
Star Wars 2:40 83 102 81.37%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 48 113 42.48%
Star Wars 4:40 33 102 32.35%
Star Wars 6:20 75 102 73.53%
Star Wars 7 84 113 74.34%
Star Wars 8:20 22 102 21.57%
Star Wars 9:55 36 102 35.29%
Star Wars 10:35 2 113 1.77%
Star Wars Total 589 1268 46.45%

 

Sunday 12/17

 

Star Wars 9:20 13 102 12.75%
Star Wars 11 62 102 60.78%
Star Wars 11:45 59 113 52.21%
Star Wars 1 31 102 30.39%
Star Wars 2:40 62 102 60.78%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 49 113 43.36%
Star Wars 4:40 6 102 5.88%
Star Wars 6:20 70 102 68.63%
Star Wars 7 52 113 46.02%
Star Wars 8:20 0 102  
Star Wars 9:55 7 102 6.86%
Star Wars 10:35 0 113  
Star Wars Total 411 1268 32.41%
 

 

Total:

 

Bad Moms 2 224 2010 11.14%
Thor 3 510 1582 32.24%
Justice League 175 1921 9.11%
Wonder 20 1294 1.55%
Star Wars 2155 4330 49.77%

 

Today:

Spoiler

Wednesday 11/1

Bad Moms 2 1:30 4 113 3.54%
Bad Moms 2 4:30 4 113 3.54%
Bad Moms 2 7:20 51 113 45.13%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 113  
Bad Moms 2 Total 59 452 13.05%

 

Thursday 11/2

Bad Moms 2 1:30 6 96 2.08%
Bad Moms 2 4:30 3 96 3.13%
Bad Moms 2 6:30 38 71 53.52%
Bad Moms 2 9:30 2 71 2.82%
Bad Moms 2 Total 49 334 14.67%
Thor 3 7:00 75 113 66.37%
Thor 3 10:25 55 113 48.67%
Thor 3 Total 130 226 57.52%

 

Friday 11/3

Bad Moms 2 1:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 4:30 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 7:20 77 102 75.49%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 14 102 13.73%
Bad Moms 2 Total 91 408 22.30%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 3 113 2.65%
Thor 3 3:15 25 113 22.12%
Thor 3 6:40 113 113 100.00%
Thor 3 10:05 57 113 50.44%
Thor 3 Total 198 452 43.81%

 

Saturday 11/4

Bad Moms 2 1:30 1 102 0.98%
Bad Moms 2 4:30 16 102 15.69%
Bad Moms 2 7:20 63 102 61.76%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 80 408 19.61%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 32 113 28.32%
Thor 3 3:15 62 113 54.87%
Thor 3 6:40 113 113 100.00%
Thor 3 10:05 34 113 30.09%
Thor 3 Total 241 452 53.32%

 

Sunday 11/5

Bad Moms 2 1:30 7 102 4.90%
Bad Moms 2 4:30 24 102 23.53%
Bad Moms 2 7:20 23 102 22.55%
Bad Moms 2 10:20 0 102  
Bad Moms 2 Total 54 408 13.24%
Thor 3 3D 11:50 22 113 19.47%
Thor 3 3:15 67 113 59.29%
Thor 3 6:40 55 113 48.67%
Thor 3 10:05 0 113  
Thor 3 Total 144 452 31.86%

 

Thursday 11/9

Orient Express 7 4 71 5.63%
Orient Express 10:05 2 71 2.82%
Orient Express Total 6 142

4.23%

Daddy's Home 2 has sold nothing.

 

Friday 11/10

Daddy's Home 2 1:40 2 102 1.96%
Daddy's Home 2 4:35 0 102  
Daddy's Home 2 7:30 0 102  
Daddy's Home 2 10:30 0 102  
Daddy's Home 2 Total 2 408 0.49%
Orient Express 12:10 0 96  
Orient Express 3:20 0 96  
Orient Express 6:30 0 96  
Orient Express 9:40 6 96 6.25%
Orient Express Total 6 384 1.56%

 

11/11 and 11/12 have sold nothing for either movies

 

Thursday 11/16

Justice League 6 58 113 51.33%
Justice League 9:10 31 113 27.43%
Justice League Total 89 226 39.38%
Wonder 7 3 71 4.23%
Wonder 10:05 0 71  
Wonder Total 3 142 2.11%

 

Friday 11/17

Justice League 10 4 113 3.54%
Justice League 3D 1:10 0 113  
Justice League 4:20 25 113 22.12%
Justice League 7:30 60 113 53.10%
Justice League 10:35 6 113 5.31%
Justice League Total 91 565 16.11%
Wonder 12:20 0 96  
Wonder 3:25 0 96  
Wonder 6:30 14 96 14.58%
Wonder 9:40 0 96  
Wonder Total 14 384 3.65%

 

Saturday 11/18

Justice League 10 7 113 6.19%
Justice League 3D 1:10 4 113 3.54%
Justice League 4:20 39 113 34.51%
Justice League 7:30 31 113 27.43%
Justice League 10:35 3 113 2.65%
Justice League Total 84 565 14.87%

Wonder has sold nothing on this day.


Sunday 11/19

Justice League 10 3 113 2.65%
Justice League 3D 1:10 2 113 1.77%
Justice League 4:20 28 113 24.78%
Justice League 7:30 6 113 5.31%
Justice League 10:35 0 113  
Justice League Total 39 565 6.90%
Wonder 12:20 11 96 11.46%
Wonder 3:25 0 96  
Wonder 6:30 0 96  
Wonder 9:35 0 96  
Wonder Total 11 384 2.86%

 

Thursday 12/14

Star Wars Fan Event 6 102 102 93.14%
Star Wars 7 102 102 100.00%
Star Wars 3D 7:30 113 113 100.00%
Star Wars 8 77 96 80.21%
Star Wars 10:35 79 102 77.45%
Star Wars 11:05 68 113 60.18%
Star Wars Total 541 628 86.15%

 

Friday 12/15

Star Wars 11 34 102 33.33%
Star Wars 11:45 33 113 29.20%
Star Wars 1 15 102 14.71%
Star Wars 2:40 67 102 63.73%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 39 113 34.51%
Star Wars 4:40 50 102 49.02%
Star Wars 6:20 102 102 100.00%
Star Wars 7 113 113 100.00%
Star Wars 8:20 67 102 65.69%
Star Wars 9:55 71 102 69.61%
Star Wars 10:35 50 113 44.25%
Star Wars Total 641 1166 54.97%

 

Saturday 12/16

Star Wars 9:20 10 102 9.80%
Star Wars 11 73 102 71.57%
Star Wars 11:45 81 113 71.68%
Star Wars 1 50 102 49.02%
Star Wars 2:40 102 102 81.37%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 48 113 42.48%
Star Wars 4:40 40 102 39.22%
Star Wars 6:20 75 102 73.53%
Star Wars 7 84 113 74.34%
Star Wars 8:20 24 102 23.53%
Star Wars 9:55 36 102 35.29%
Star Wars 10:35 2 113 1.77%
Star Wars Total 625 1268 49.29%

 

Sunday 12/17

Star Wars 9:20 17 102 16.67%
Star Wars 11 62 102 60.78%
Star Wars 11:45 59 113 52.21%
Star Wars 1 35 102 34.31%
Star Wars 2:40 62 102 60.78%
Star Wars 3D 3:25 49 113 43.36%
Star Wars 4:40 10 102 9.80%
Star Wars 6:20 70 102 68.63%
Star Wars 7 52 113 46.02%
Star Wars 8:20 0 102  
Star Wars 9:55 7 102 6.86%
Star Wars 10:35 0 113  
Star Wars Total 423 1268 33.36%

 

Total:

Bad Moms 2 333 2010 16.57%
Thor 3 713 1582 45.07%
Daddy's Home 2 4 1366 0.29%
Orient Express 12 1294 0.93%
Justice League 303 1921 15.77%
Wonder 28 1294 2.16%
Star Wars 2230 4330 51.50%

 

Daddy and Express were added this past Friday, but neither are really presales-driven, so it's best not to dwell too hard on it. Thor is currently at 2 sellouts, while Star Wars is at 6.

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Rumpot Box Office Gold

Rumpot

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Thor

2. Jigsaw

3. SW

4. Thor 3D

5. JL

 

Bad Moms needs to appear soon because this is essentially Wednesday for it.

Bad Moms on MT now with 4.8%.  Even though it starts Wednesday I don't think we can just pull expected sales a day forward since most presales I would think will still be aimed at the weekend.

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, Bad Moms really isn't gonna make much during the week. The weekend will be where most of its business will be at.

I'm kinda expecting a 5 day opening similar to, or slightly under, Baby Driver

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