The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mojoguy]

Now Thor:R will face JL and Coco, although Coco won't come close to $400m ...

Yep, Thor 3 has it easy compared to Thor 2.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Yep, Thor 3 has it easy compared to Thor 2.

Reception too. Thor 2 didn’t have good reception as well.

[RRA]

1 hour ago, Brainiac5 said:

Think about it like this ,If it’s 150mil and the (possible) tomato law applies then The Legs will be good.

150x2.8=420.

oh no, not you too! What happened to 190 man?

[Brinatico]

29 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Star Wars is the event of the year. Perhaps I am wrong about JLs legs but Jedi will take a lot of attention away along with the wave of Christmas movies it’ll be hard for theaters to make room during the holidays but the first three weeks should be a breeze. Mockingjay 2 lost near $10M away from its final gross due to TFA. I’m thinking a $155M-$165M/$415M-$435M total. 

Of course STAR WARS is the event of the year. But JL have no real competition  until Black Panter on next year...all others movie are garbage to fill spots

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

Of course STAR WARS is the event of the year. But JL have no real competition  until Black Panter on next year...all others movie are garbage to fill spots

They still take away screens. It’s box office 101. Even though the movies might be or are shit, there’s contracts that distributors have with theaters. Odds are in a average 12 screen theater where Jedi gets 3, Jumanji and Pitch Perfect will get at least 1 each (let’s say 2 screens for Jumanji and Pitch gets 1 and has a split with Showman). Ferdinand and Showman will also take up a screen. Throw in Shape of Water which would go wide by then and with Father Figures and Downsizing sharing likely sharing a screen, you have a sceeen left. Odds are they either give JL a split with another holdover like Coco or something or another movie might get a screen over it. I think JL legs will be good but I’m not expecting over 2.65x.

[MrGlass2]

Probably useful to repost this here, about JL:

29 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Take this for what it is worth, but from what I can see I am sending up the potential red flag that this is not selling even close the the level of a $400m movie and is tracking at the moment to open less than $120m.  

 

I am still on record thinking it will open to $150m+, but it has not picked up to the level expected.  

[TalismanRing]

Looking at Fandango in NYC that doesn't surprise me.  I'm seeing screen saturation a week out closer to the level of WW than GOTG2  or even SS and maybe less than SM: HC or Thor.  It's the only big opener I've tracked where I've also seen several theaters cut back showings instead of adding them.

 

Tracking being under $120m might be the reason they broke the social media embargo earlier than expected.  Even if the reviews aren't very good they're not BvS or SS horrible - with most so far saying it's at least fun and the characters are likable.  They needed something to push pre-sales and get more people excited for the movie.

[RRA]

That’s...mind blowing. Makes one wonder how much of a bump the “it’s fine” reactions will give it next week.

[Mojoguy]

That’s...mind blowing. Makes one wonder how much of a bump the “it’s fine” reactions will give it next week.

Well "it's fine" is better than being called "another BvS".

[XO21]

3 hours ago, Brainiac5 said:

Think about it like this ,If it’s 150mil and the (possible) tomato law applies then The Legs will be good.

150x2.8=420.

Catching Fire (a phenomenon that outdid even the most optimistic expectations) did 2.65, a fanboy driven movie like JL will do 2.8? Sure

Edited November 11, 2017 by XO21

[Mojoguy]

Catching Fire, MJ1, and MJ2. are perfect models for a blockbuster movie opening the weekend before Thanksgiving.

They had 158M, 121M and 102M opening weekends.

JL is pretty much guaranteed to fall in that range.

First would be a hit, second be meeting expectations, and third be an embarrassment for JL.

[Ash Skywalker]

Fandango pulse is picking up for JL. Been watching it for a few hours. 

[Rumpot]

I think JL sales will pick up huge Monday and render much of the low end predictions moot.  I did presales for IT and Thor noticing that there was really no point in me doing that so far ahead of time unless I wanted one of those 5 perfect Dolby seats since a ton of new showings pop up the week of.  I plan to get a Thursday ticket, but I'll do so on Tuesday.  

 

[Brainiac5]

8 hours ago, RRA said:

oh no, not you too! What happened to 190 man?

It’s a prediction and Im sure WB will Sacrifice Any Huge opening for some

much better Legs.

[Brainiac5]

5 hours ago, XO21 said:

Catching Fire (a phenomenon that outdid even the most optimistic expectations) did 2.65, a fanboy driven movie like JL will do 2.8? Sure

The reason being is that after  Thanksgiving the film can already be close the a 2x.

So If it opens to Let’s say 160 it will most likely be over 300 domestic after 10days.

 

[Brainiac5]

7 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

Probably useful to repost this here, about JL:

 

I’m seeing WOnder Woman all over again.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

The reason being is that after  Thanksgiving the film can already be close the a 2x.

So If it opens to Let’s say 160 it will most likely be over 300 domestic after 10days.

 

Again that’s about what CF did. The difference is I think over the holiday season (Christmas) legs won’t be as massive due to more competition. 2.5x-2.6x seems fair.

[EmpireCity]

I have been on the $150m+ opening train for a long time, but I think today I am going to lower my expectations.  

 

It is looking much more like a $130m opening and $350m or so total.  

[NamakFiskKa]

I'm not buying SS-Gotg 2 tier ow

[WrathOfHan]

If this opens to 130M (I'm with EC in predicting that btw), there is basically no way it gets to 400M.