The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's also for one day and not for the prior weeks of pre-sales. 

Yeah its not running total. I don't know if you can get a total since the app is down sometimes.

[el sid]

It stays interesting: 5 minutes of Pulse counting 5 hours ago showed for the first time ASIB in front of Venom with 120 to 100 sold tickets (yesterday same time of the day it was the other way around).
But at the moment Venom is again clearly in front with 142 to 83 sold tickets. Mmh.

In Germany the first Venom show(s) started a few minutes ago (tomorrow is a legal holiday), but still no official reviews. At least the reservations and sold tickets situation for today and tomorrow seems to be pretty good according to several reports and from what I saw in some theaters.

[DAJK]

Any word on overseas tracking/buzz on either film?

[MaxAggressor]

29 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Any word on overseas tracking/buzz on either film?

https://deadline.com/2018/10/venom-to-course-throughout-the-world-with-175m-debut-as-bradley-cooper-lady-gagas-a-star-is-born-tunes-up-for-a-long-tour-1202474768/

 

It has been a while since there’s been a superhero movie and so Sony/Tencent’s Venom based off the Marvel property arrives with enough anticipation that will drive its opening weekend to a $160M-$175M global start with domestic headed toward an October opening record of $60M-$65M at 4,250 theaters plus Imax, besting the month’s previous high set by Warner Bros.’ Gravity ($55.7M) in 2013.

[Barnack]

13 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday	Friday

Are you creating a bank of data will of those, if so we could be starting to have enough to build some prediction bank from them.

[Pinacolada]

39 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

https://deadline.com/2018/10/venom-to-course-throughout-the-world-with-175m-debut-as-bradley-cooper-lady-gagas-a-star-is-born-tunes-up-for-a-long-tour-1202474768/

 

It has been a while since there’s been a superhero movie and so Sony/Tencent’s Venom based off the Marvel property arrives with enough anticipation that will drive its opening weekend to a $160M-$175M global start with domestic headed toward an October opening record of $60M-$65M at 4,250 theaters plus Imax, besting the month’s previous high set by Warner Bros.’ Gravity ($55.7M) in 2013.

This would be huge... Not even including China

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, LonePirate said:

People are placing way too much stock into these MT percentages, which are about as useful as a paper bag for carrying water.

 

According to those numbers, NS is selling 2.5 tickets for every MHA ticket sold. Looking at the three day weekend actuals, NS outsold MHA by 20 to 1. That MT data is representative of almost nothing.

You have to understand what movies oversell (or undersell) on MT and account for that...for example, foreign films always way oversell on MT.com...although it's always useful to see them pop up b/c you know that there's a chance one might break out if it goes high enough...

[Barnack]

Strong day and date except for China too, only those to open:

 

France	10 October 2018
Denmark	11 October 2018
Hong Kong	18 October 2018
Japan	2 November 2018

 

 

With China, 160m start could mean 380-400m + China + those 4 markets ?

[Pinacolada]

13 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Strong day and date except for China too, only those to open:

 

France	10 October 2018
Denmark	11 October 2018
Hong Kong	18 October 2018
Japan	2 November 2018

 

 

With China, 160m start could mean 380-400m + China + those 4 markets ?

Could hit Apocalypse numbers??? And with a budget much lower than Apocalypse's, that would be huge. I don't think it'll get quite that high, but $500 million+ would be great

[filmlover]

LOL Christopher Robin is coming back to my theater this weekend (which is giving Venom 3 screens during the day which become 6 at night and A Star is Born on 4 screens). Disney:

 

[WrathOfHan]

Christopher Robin is returning to my AMC as well. AWIT has Disney SHOOK lmfao

[jj99]

looking at the numbers here 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

 

the chances of an upset for ASIB look slim.

[Eric the Minion]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

LOL Christopher Robin is coming back to my theater this weekend (which is giving Venom 3 screens during the day which become 6 at night and A Star is Born on 4 screens).

 

23 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Christopher Robin is returning to my AMC as well. AWIT has Disney SHOOK lmfao

Support my club and see Christopher Robin this weekend #SymbiNOte #GagGaGa

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, jj99 said:

looking at the numbers here 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

 

the chances of an upset for ASIB look slim.

6	2018-10-01	MON	Venom
18288	2018-10-04	THU	Venom
15436	2018-10-05	FRI	Venom
9344	2018-10-06	SAT	Venom
3484	2018-10-07	SUN	Venom


455	2018-10-02	TUE	A Star Is Born
3703	2018-10-03	WED	A Star Is Born
6599	2018-10-04	THU	A Star Is Born
11184	2018-10-05	FRI	A Star Is Born
6536	2018-10-06	SAT	A Star Is Born
2668	2018-10-07	SUN	A Star Is Born

 

46558 for Venom

31145 for ASIB

 

It is slim, but if Venom OW / pre-sales is somewhat close to Deadpool 2 and ASIB closer to the Mamma Mia / Ocean 8, it could be not that far.

[LonePirate]

That Thursday/Saturday ratio for the two films is very interesting. Venom will probably win the battle this weekend but Star will dethrone it long term.

[KeepItU25071906]

25 minutes ago, Barnack said:

6	2018-10-01	MON	Venom
18288	2018-10-04	THU	Venom
15436	2018-10-05	FRI	Venom
9344	2018-10-06	SAT	Venom
3484	2018-10-07	SUN	Venom


455	2018-10-02	TUE	A Star Is Born
3703	2018-10-03	WED	A Star Is Born
6599	2018-10-04	THU	A Star Is Born
11184	2018-10-05	FRI	A Star Is Born
6536	2018-10-06	SAT	A Star Is Born
2668	2018-10-07	SUN	A Star Is Born

 

46558 for Venom

31145 for ASIB

 

It is slim, but if Venom OW / pre-sales is somewhat close to Deadpool 2 and ASIB closer to the Mamma Mia / Ocean 8, it could be not that far.

Do you have Mamma Mia/O8 numbers from 'static.txt'? Because if we see at the 'track.txt',  presales for ASIB are much, much havier than for MM/O8.

Edited October 2, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[Pinacolada]

31 minutes ago, Barnack said:

6	2018-10-01	MON	Venom
18288	2018-10-04	THU	Venom
15436	2018-10-05	FRI	Venom
9344	2018-10-06	SAT	Venom
3484	2018-10-07	SUN	Venom


455	2018-10-02	TUE	A Star Is Born
3703	2018-10-03	WED	A Star Is Born
6599	2018-10-04	THU	A Star Is Born
11184	2018-10-05	FRI	A Star Is Born
6536	2018-10-06	SAT	A Star Is Born
2668	2018-10-07	SUN	A Star Is Born

 

46558 for Venom

31145 for ASIB

 

It is slim, but if Venom OW / pre-sales is somewhat close to Deadpool 2 and ASIB closer to the Mamma Mia / Ocean 8, it could be not that far.

Could somone explain what these numbers mean? Are these projected tickets sold on future days, or the tickets sold SO FAR on those days?

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

4 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Could somone explain what these numbers mean? Are these projected tickets sold on future days, or the tickets sold SO FAR on those days?

The latter

[YM!]

On 9/30/2018 at 3:55 PM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Venom is running 69.1% behind JL ($28.2M OW), 58% behind Homecoming ($49.2M OW) and 46% behind Ant Man and The Wasp ($41.65M OW)

 

This is fucking awful. No ifs and or buts. Still think $50M OW is happening but I can’t see anything higher than $55M OW. Hype died down quick and this is looking fugly.

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Venom is running

22.8% behind Ant Man and The Wasp ($58.5M OW)

40.8% behind Spider-Man: Homecoming ($69.3M OW)

48% behind Thor: Ragnarok ($63.9M OW)

55.4% behind IT ($54.7M OW)

58% behind Justice League ($39.4M OW)

 

This is much better for Venom now but I anticipate a bit of frontloading. Thinking $55M-$60M OW.

[WrathOfHan]

On 9/25/2018 at 5:56 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Assassination Nation, The Princess and the Frog, and Unbroken: Path to Redemption are gone.

 

Hell Fest: 4 (Average x0.75 and 4th Smallest x0.25)

Night School: 4 (2nd Biggest)

Smallfoot: 4 (3 2D/1 3D; Biggest)

Tangled: 2 (Smallest x0.5)

 

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

The Meg: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest x0.75 and Smallest x0.25)

The Nun: 4 (Flat; Average)

Peppermint: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Predator: 4 (Flat; Average)

Searching: 4 (Flat; 2nd Smallest)

A Simple Favor: 4 (Flat; Average)

White Boy Rick: 4 (Flat; Average)

Fahrenheit 11/9: 1 (Down 3; Smallest x0.25)

Life Itself: 1 (Down 3; Average x0.25)

 

During the weekend, Smallfoot has an extra screen at the expense of Searching and The Meg, and it gets pushed out of the biggest auditorium at night by Night School as Hell Fest moves into the 2nd Biggest. House is also in an average auditorium in place of White Boy Rick

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Fahrenheit 11/9, Life Itself, The Meg, Searching, Tangled, and White Boy Rick are gone.

 

Venom: 8 (5 2D/3 3D; 2nd Biggest and Average)

A Star Is Born: 4 (Biggest)

Disney's Christopher Robin: 2 (Return; 4th Smallest x0.5)

Moana: 2 (Smallest x0.5)

 

The Nun: 5 (Up 1; Average)

Hell Fest: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest x0.5 and Smallest x0.5)

The House with a Clock in Its Walls: 4 (Flat; Average)

Night School: 4 (Flat; Average)

Peppermint: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Predator: 4 (Flat; 2nd Smallest)

A Simple Favor: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

Smallfoot: 4 (Flat and lost 3D; Average)

 

During the weekend, Venom and A Star Is Born each get an extra screen at the expense of The Predator, The Nun, and Peppermint

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:  

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by WrathOfHan