The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[LordNox]

Shazam and Dumbo are both going for the family audience, so it will be interesting to see if the reviews will do anything to drive that audience away from Dumbo into Shazam. Or if Shazam's darker tone make the families more likely to still go to Dumbo instead. 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Or if Shazam's darker tone

I've heard a LOT of ways to describe Shazam, but "darker tone" ain't one of them.

(one or two more serious scenes does not a 'darker tone' movie make)

 

[LordNox]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I've heard a LOT of ways to describe Shazam, but "darker tone" ain't one of them.

(one or two more serious scenes does not a 'darker tone' movie make)

 

Shazam as a movie isn't dark, but it has several violent scenes that you don't even find in the more serious Marvel films. That could drive away some of the family audience to the very kids friendly Dumbo.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, LordNox said:

Shazam as a movie isn't dark, but it has several violent scenes that you don't even find in the more serious Marvel films. That could drive away some of the family audience to the very kids friendly Dumbo.

Violent scene doesn't necessarily equal darker tone though.  Really this is part of the reason I really dislike the term "dark", along with "gritty".  It's just too nebulous and ill-defined.

 

Either way, if anything I think all of the reviews talking about the "heart" and "fun" and "charm" will easily win out over any concerns over violence when taken in total.

 

Meanwhile, Dumbo  is getting... "Not Great, Bob" level reviews so far with people taking it to task for being lifeless and lacking in charm outside of the title character himself and Danny DeVito.  Doesn't mean the general audience will follow suit, but when it comes to initial buzz, one film is getting far better marks when it comes to what appeals to families in general.

 

I suppose the younger end of the family film set might find Dumbo more appealing, but again those initial reviews ain't a great sign.  

 

Still early, but if I were gonna bet, I'd bet that Shazam! feels little pressure from Dumbo.

[john2000]

Just now, Porthos said:

Violent scene doesn't necessarily equal darker tone though.  Really this is part of the reason I really dislike the term "dark", along with "gritty".  It's just too nebulous and ill-defined.

 

Either way, if anything I think all of the reviews talking about the "heart" and "fun" and "charm" will easily win out over any concerns over violence when taken in total.

 

Meanwhile, Dumbo  is getting... "Not Great, Bob" level reviews so far with people taking it to task for being lifeless and lacking in charm outside of the title character himself and Danny DeVito.  Doesn't mean the general audience will follow suit, but when it comes to initial buzz, one film is getting far better marks when it comes to what appeals to families in general.

 

I suppose the younger end of the family film set might find Dumbo more appealing, but again those initial reviews ain't a great sign.  

 

Still early, but if I were gonna bet, I'd bet that Shazam! feels little pressure from Dumbo.

i wouldnt say that bc critics didnt love it that doesnt mean that audience wont

[filmlover]

I could see Dumbo opening below $45M at this point.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i wouldnt say that bc critics didnt love it that doesnt mean that audience wont

Quote

.  Doesn't mean the general audience will follow suit, but when it comes to initial buzz, one film is getting far better marks when it comes to what appeals to families in general.

 

All we really have is initial buzz right now for Dumbo. So that's all I can really go on, especially since we do seem to have some early indication of what the GA will think of Shazam!

[Porthos]

The one thing that Dumbo might have going for it is if it does appeal to kids while Shazam! in turn appeals to adults who want to feel like a kid again.

 

This might seem like a subtle difference, and I suppose in some ways it is.  But it is possible that Shazam! appeals more to adults who want to feel like kids while passing over kids in general.

 

I tend to doubt this will happen, mind you, as from what I've heard there's plenty in Shazam! to in fact appeal to kids.  

 

But if Dumbo is to find an audience, it's that:  Kids and not adults wanting to feel like a kid.

 

(This also would mean the ceiling for Shazam! is much much higher than Dumbo, but it does give a path for Dumbo to at least find an audience)

[john2000]

‘Dumbo’ Will Be Global Big Top Attraction With $137M+ Footprint

A global opening between $137M-$155M is what we’re hearing at this point in town with overseas between $80M-90M and domestic projections literally wild: Disney thinks it’s in the $50Ms, others in the $60M-$65M range, but after today’s Rotten Tomatoes score of 51% Rotten, we’re figuring $57.5M 

 

if true then it will very good and also a massive flop right ?  maybe it will at the end but dont be quick to judge for the people that are absolute certain

Edited March 26, 2019 by john2000

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

‘Dumbo’ Will Be Global Big Top Attraction With $137M+ Footprint

A global opening between $137M-$155M is what we’re hearing at this point in town with overseas between $80M-90M and domestic projections literally wild: Disney thinks it’s in the $50Ms, others in the $60M-$65M range, but after today’s Rotten Tomatoes score of 51% Rotten, we’re figuring $57.5M 

 

if true then it will very good

So, Deadline has already dropped $7.5M for their DOM OW estimate (since they spun tracking as gospel fact), just from yesterday:)...so, either someone read our site or actually decided to glance at presales...

Edited March 26, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[John Marston]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

So, Deadline has already dropped $7.5M for their DOM OW estimate, just from yesterday:)...so, either someone read our site or actually decided to glance at presales...

 

Like said before that 60-65 was inside expectations. 57m is their only prediction 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Still great tracking!!

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Like said before that 60-65 was inside expectations. 57m is their only prediction 

And one I expect to keep dropping...thus the hedging on low 50's already in this article...(edit - although, they also hedge and say $57.5M is the LOW end of their estimate)...

 

And, I still have a problem with the way they wrote up Monday's look at Dumbo's tracking - as in, it was a done deal top open at that number - ie, it's "flying in".  It could have been left completely out of the piece, and just mentioned Us would likely fall in weekend 2 to Dumbo or would face stiff competition, etc.  

 

Edited March 26, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[reddevil19]

Think that OS prediction is more optimistic than the domestic one... 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Think that OS prediction is more optimistic than the domestic one... 

if its true then i hope that captain marvel has a decent drop for the weekend fingers crossed 

Edited March 26, 2019 by john2000

[DisposedData]

30 minutes ago, john2000 said:

‘Dumbo’ Will Be Global Big Top Attraction With $137M+ Footprint

A global opening between $137M-$155M is what we’re hearing at this point in town with overseas between $80M-90M and domestic projections literally wild: Disney thinks it’s in the $50Ms, others in the $60M-$65M range, but after today’s Rotten Tomatoes score of 51% Rotten, we’re figuring $57.5M 

 

if true then it will very good and also a massive flop right ?  maybe it will at the end but dont be quick to judge for the people that are absolute certain

No way it opens that high. This really is Mary Poppins all over again. The industry refuses to believe that Disney can fall on its face sometimes.

[Nova]

That OS predicted opening is even more wild than their domestic one. Do people OS even care about Dumbo? Not even trying to be an ass or anything but an honest question.  

 

Still going with $40-$50M domestic and probably like $50-60M OS for a $90-110M opening. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Nova

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Nova said:

That OS predicted opening is even more wild than their domestic one. Do people OS even care about Dumbo? Not even trying to be an ass or anything but an honest question.  

 

Still going with $40-$50M domestic and probably like $50-60M OS for a $90-110M opening. 

I'd say Deadline should definitely read your post before their next update:)...(and yes, at this point, I'd go for the same numbers:)...

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I'd say Deadline should definitely read your post before their next update:)...(and yes, at this point, I'd go for the same numbers:)...

hey dont insult  them they are great with this kind of things right ?  ( i agree with deadline though)

Edited March 26, 2019 by john2000

[Rumpot]

Dumbo is going to get watched hardcore by people waiting for Endgame tickets