The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

My manager sent an E-mail saying corporate was starting pre-sales on the 2nd but things could move.

Thanks for that.  👍  Try to stay circumspect so you don't get in trouble, okay.

 

And, personally speaking, I just want to know ahead of time so I don't wake up super early in the day for nothing (I NEVER wake up that early in the morning ).

[YLF]

@Charlie Jatinder any early update on the Thursday number for US?

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, YLF said:

@Charlie Jatinder any early update on the Thursday number for US?

He is not around until tomorrow. 

Also, as a reminder - our resident gods are not supposed to share Thursday preview numbers and asking them to do so may put their jobs / access in jeopardy. 

If Charlie chooses to make a guess that is on him, but we should not be asking. 

Edited March 21, 2019 by narniadis

[TalismanRing]

Compared to IT's numbers on Fandango Pulse (from the old eye count) it's been doing 56-57% all day.  That would be 7.65 in previews. 

 

But IT was almost 18 months ago (how time flies)

[YLF]

34 minutes ago, narniadis said:

He is not around until tomorrow. 

Also, as a reminder - our resident gods are not supposed to share Thursday preview numbers and asking them to do so may put their jobs / access in jeopardy. 

If Charlie chooses to make a guess that is on him, but we should not be asking. 

I’ve seen people ask him before, so I decided to respectfully ask since I’m curious about the number. If he is unable to provide the number that’s fine. I’m not demanding it. 

Edited March 21, 2019 by YLF

[Premium George]

You can ask to Charlie. He is pretty open about it. 😉

[terrestrial]

 

54 minutes ago, YLF said:

@Charlie Jatinder any early update on the Thursday number for US?

 

On 3/19/2019 at 7:40 AM, Charlie Jatinder said:

I won't be able to share US numbers till Friday. Will be back with Us and CM numbers.

 

[YLF]

Just now, terrestrial said:

 

 

 

 

Just now, terrestrial said:

 

 

 

Okay, thanks, I didn’t see the post.

[terrestrial]

Quote

Top Three Trailers with Highest Recall Score Among Moviegoing Audiences

 

Dumbo / Disney / Friday, March 29

• 40.6% of moviegoers (158 respondents) saw and recalled the trailer this week.
• That’s down a bit from a 42.7% peak last week.
• It spends its second week at #1 on the recall metric.
• It also spends its 11th consecutive week — all but one of its tracking weeks — in the recall metric’s top three.

.

Aladdin / Disney / Friday, May 24

• 27.6% of moviegoers (107 respondents) saw and recalled the trailer this week.
• It enters the recall metric at #2 on its first week of tracking.

Shazam! / Warner Bros. / Friday, April 5

• 23.3% of moviegoers (91 respondents) saw and recalled the trailer this week.
• That’s a new peak, up from a prior 21.5% peak last week.
• It spends its third non-consecutive week in the recall metric’s top three, all at #3.
• That’s up from ranking #4 last week.

 

Quote

 Top Three Trailers with Highest Cinema Interest Among Moviegoing Audiences

 

Avengers: Endgame / Disney / Friday, April 26

• 75.9% of respondents who saw the trailer this week said they intend to see it in theaters.
• That’s up slightly from 75.5% last week but down from from a 78.6% peak, yet still ranks among the highest numbers we’ve ever measured.
• It spends a 13th consecutive week — all of its tracking weeks — at #1 on the ‘interest in a cinema view’ metric.

.

Spider-Man: Far From Home / Sony / Friday, July 5

• While Trailer Impact usually only measures films coming out in the next 10 weeks, we’d added Spider-Man: Far From Home to the survey after it posted the 8th-most global views online ever for a trailer within its first day.
• 61.9% of respondents who saw the trailer this week said they intend to see it in theaters.
• That’s a new peak, beating its prior 61.0% peak achieved in two separate frames, including last week.
• It spends a second week at a #2 peak on the ‘interest in a cinema view’ metric.
• It spends a ninth consecutive week — all its tracking weeks — in the top three on the ‘interest in a cinema view’ metric.

Aladdin / Disney / Friday, May 24

• 58.7% of respondents who saw the trailer this week said they intend to see it in theaters.
• It spends its first tracking week in the top three on the ‘interest in a cinema view’ metric, at #3.

 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/trailer-impact-3-21-19/

[DAJK]

Mojo has Us at 51M. While I definitely think that is low-balling it quite a bit, the fact that both they and Bo.com both have it under 60 for their official predictions makes me think 90+ is a real long-shot. Even mojo predicted 85M for It. 

 

I'm not going to go above 70 for my expectations. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm thinking 64mil right now. 

[XXR vs XXR]

39 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Avengers: Endgame / Disney / Friday, April 26

• 75.9% of respondents who saw the trailer this week said they intend to see it in theaters.
• That’s up slightly from 75.5% last week but down from from a 78.6% peak, yet still ranks among the highest numbers we’ve ever measured.
• It spends a 13th consecutive week — all of its tracking weeks — at #1 on the ‘interest in a cinema view’ metric.

 

Wouldn't happen to know what Infinity War was around the same time? 

[FlashMaster659]

20 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Wouldn't happen to know what Infinity War was around the same time? 

I don't think BOPro had this metric at the time

[Blankments]

I think folks might be underestimating how frontloaded US might be. There’s a rush factor here (but I do think it’ll do over 50m)

[MattW]

I put 94m on boxofficechamps, regretting it now, but it really seems like it should be doing 70+.  I will be very surprised if it's more presale heavy than Halloween.

[Legion Again]

Seems to be heading for a full 50% bump today on Fandango for 40k. Unfortunately a lot of big openers from last year don't have Thurs data, and I'm pretty uncertain about what good comps will be anyway. On the one hand you could call it a non-franchise movie, but it seems like a lot of awareness and buzz is being driven by the association with Get Out, so it's not hard to imagine actually being fairly presale heavy.

[Stewart]

--

Edited March 22, 2019 by feasby007

[Stewart]

Right, people really need to stop with the "it'll be frontloaded" bullshit. 

 

I did the maths in a spreadsheet using @CoolEric258 data and found that less than 80M is practically impossible for this based on Wednesday numbers

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1StE4_QCLFj62helf0mtWRyfCOQXI0SxsOsUepAAwnXQ/edit#gid=1749994873

 

Here are the most presale heavy films from the past year (discounting expansions and wednesday releases) and their relative predictions of Us' OW based on the wednesday number:

 

A Star Is Born	52.4
Fantastic Beasts	78.6
Mamma Mia 2	79.8
SW: Solo	81.7
Deadpool 2	84.2
Captain Marvel	85.2
What Men Want	93.1
Halloween	97.5
Spider-Verse	99.2

 

Everything else is over 100M.

 

Now pretty sure ASIB had previews of some sort on Wednesday, so that comp is thrown out. So unless Us is going to be the most presale heavy movie from the past year, then perhaps people need to realise that 50m, heck even 70m is TOO LOW.

 

Sorry if this is aggressive, just tired of people putting down a movie when the data clearly supports a breakout.

 

---

 

Also, in case of speculation, here's the prediction based on M+T+W numbers:

 

A Star Is Born	51.7
Captain Marvel	66.0
Deadpool 2	70.0
Fantastic Beasts	71.8
SW: Solo	75.5
Avengers: Infinity War	77.2
Mamma Mia 2	84.0
Venom	86.4
Halloween	89.9
Marwen	91.7
Bohemian Rhapsody	92.1
Black Panther	94.0
Spider-Verse	98.0

 

 

Clearly the trend here is for an explosion, unless this movie is supposedly more presale heavy than freaking Star Wars, Marvel and Potterverse...

Edited March 22, 2019 by feasby007

[Litio]

Are there any people really doubting that US will open close to or maybe more than $100m? Yes, there is hype and higher presales, but these presales are not from a Star Wars movie, guys.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Litio said:

Are there any people really doubting that US will open close to or maybe more than $100m? Yes, there is hype and higher presales, but these presales are not from a Star Wars movie, guys.

 

44 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I think folks might be underestimating how frontloaded US might be. There’s a rush factor here (but I do think it’ll do over 50m)

 

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I'm thinking 64mil right now. 

 

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Mojo has Us at 51M. While I definitely think that is low-balling it quite a bit, the fact that both they and Bo.com both have it under 60 for their official predictions makes me think 90+ is a real long-shot. Even mojo predicted 85M for It. 

 

I'm not going to go above 70 for my expectations. 

@Litio That's 3 from just this page and the last couple hours alone... This was my frustration and why I did the maths