The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ThomasNicole]

From Deadline:

 

Industry expectations at this point in time is that Us will ease 50% in weekend 2 with around $35M-$36M as Disney’s Dumbo flies in with a $65M start.

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

hope Dumbo does well. Think it can do well from family walk ups rather than "hype"

i think this is the case... despite the apparently lack of buzz, tracking is really consistent in the last weeks. First tracking was $ 50 - 60M, box office pro prediction sticks at $ 60M and deadline just drop an article saying industry is projecting $ 65M for Dumbo... maybe Disney is just doing a family oriented marketing on their channels, youtube kids etc

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, reddevil19 said:

Thought Dumbo was gonna be more Jungle Book than Mary Poppins...

 

 

 

Mary Poppins Returns numbers for Dumbo domestically would be fine. Overseas though yeah it has to do much better than what MPR did

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Mary Poppins Returns numbers for Dumbo domestically would be fine. Overseas though yeah it has to do much better than what MPR did

it seems it will be closer to jungle book at least ow see previous comments

Edited March 25, 2019 by john2000

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

it seems it will be closer to jungle book at least ow see previous comments

Jungle Book opened to $93m. Dumbo might not do half of that. 

[john2000]

14 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Jungle Book opened to $93m. Dumbo might not do half of that. 

you saw they they tracking for 65 ow right ? also jungle book opened with 103

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

From Deadline:

 

Industry expectations at this point in time is that Us will ease 50% in weekend 2 with around $35M-$36M as Disney’s Dumbo flies in with a $65M start.

Save this post, so we can see Deadline wildly off for 3 weekends in a row:)...

[XXR vs XXR]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

you saw they they tracking for 65 ow right ? also jungle book opened with 103

Yea I saw that tracking. It’s going to be off by at least 20%.

 

You’re correct on TJB however, it was $103m.

[John Marston]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Save this post, so we can see Deadline wildly off for 3 weekends in a row:)...

 

 

I don't think those are Deadline's numbers

[john2000]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

Yea I saw that tracking. It’s going to be off by at least 20%.

 

You’re correct on TJB however, it was $103m.

we will see about that

[reddevil19]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Save this post, so we can see Deadline wildly off for 3 weekends in a row:)...

To be fair, it's the general tracking, rather than their projections. It just seems like it's the tracking that has/will be off with the likes of US and potentially Dumbo and Shazam. We'll see

[fabiopazzo2]

Ops

Edited March 25, 2019 by fabiopazzo2

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

I don't think those are Deadline's numbers

Deadline has posted early Monday tracking 3 weeks in a row - for the last 2, it's been pretty wildly off what the weekend ended at (for the last 2, to the upside...this one, I think, might be the downside).  Now, you're right - they are just stating "industry expectations" but they usually state it like "it's a fact", rather than offering any kind of caveat or mention that it's still early to judge, tracking is not perfect, etc.  I'd give them more leeway if they actually did an analysis of their own like we do here... 

 

PS - Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart nearly doubled early Monday morning tracking (not hard with their very low tracking projections, but still)...and Us went way higher...and now this will be weekend #3:)...

Edited March 25, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Brinatico]

50 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

From Deadline:

 

Industry expectations at this point in time is that Us will ease 50% in weekend 2 with around $35M-$36M as Disney’s Dumbo flies in with a $65M start.

Where are the presales numbers to justify this OW.

Another pro-Disney quote from dealine.

Rmember.

1. Mary Poppins 

2. A wrinkle 

3. Pete's dragon 

4. BFG.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

Where are the presales numbers to justify this OW.

Another pro-Disney quote from dealine.

Rmember.

1. Mary Poppins 

2. A wrinkle 

3. Pete's dragon 

4. BFG.

this isn't deadline prediction, they say specifically "industry expectations".

 

presales are good, 85% of dragon 3 at the same point [remember, Dragon 3 already have reviews out at this point, Dumbo reviews will be out tomorrow, which could shake things up, for better or worse]

[Manny G]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

From Deadline:

 

Industry expectations at this point in time is that Us will ease 50% in weekend 2 with around $35M-$36M as Disney’s Dumbo flies in with a $65M start.

That’s crazy to me I just don’t see it happening . I feel like this another MPR Christopher Robin situation where the trades are just out of touch.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Manny G

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

I think it does 60ish million OW in US. OS I have no idea, looks to be flop miserably in China.

[Cap]

 

(There's a Thread.  It's delightful.)

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Manny G said:

That’s crazy to me I just don’t see it happening . I feel like this another MPR Christopher Robin situation where the trades are just out of touch.

CR tracking was always low... final tracking was $ 20 - 30M, it falls off right in the middle [$ 24.6M]

 

MPR yeah, it's tracking great, but for me this movie is an anomaly... presales are indeed really strong, everyone was shocked when it opens much lower than expected.

[boyamama]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Mary Poppins Returns numbers for Dumbo domestically would be fine. Overseas though yeah it has to do much better than what MPR did

i'm afraid DUMBO os will get eaten greatly by SHAZAM @ the 2nd week....so DUMBO need to do big @ 1st week or DISNEY will get a disappointing OS number....