The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[John Marston]

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Edited March 25, 2019 by John Marston

[John Marston]

Dumbo appears on Movietickets at 3rd

 

 

2019-03-25 21:00:31.838525 UTC
1	48.5%	Us
2	19.8%	Captain Marvel
3	4.3%	Dumbo
4	4.3%	Wonder Park
5	4.1%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

[Neucentro]

11 days before release, Shazam is selling about 85% of what Us did at the same point.  If it follows the same trajectory, a $60m OW will result.

[Neucentro]

1 hour ago, Neucentro said:

11 days before release, Shazam is selling about 85% of what Us did at the same point.  If it follows the same trajectory, a $60m OW will result.

I got the % based on sales from 10:00 - 16:00 hours on Fandango. Shazam had 340 tickets sold across formats while Us had 396 tickets sold.

[XXR vs XXR]

54 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

I got the % based on sales from 10:00 - 16:00 hours on Fandango. Shazam had 340 tickets sold across formats while Us had 396 tickets sold.

That number wouldn't surprise me, though it deserve more all things considered. Just talking to my non-movie following friends, I don't know many who have an interest in it. 

[MrGlass2]

3 hours ago, Neucentro said:

11 days before release, Shazam is selling about 85% of what Us did at the same point.  If it follows the same trajectory, a $60m OW will result. 

Better compare Shazam to Captain Marvel; and Pet Sematary to Us.

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Better compare Shazam to Captain Marvel; and Pet Sematary to Us.

Shazam's walk ups might be more comparable to SM:HC & AM&TW

[Menor the Destroyer]

Another mediocre day of presales for Dumbo it looks like it'll end up about 75% of HTTYD3 at the same day.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Menor

[The Panda]

I wouldn’t mind Dumbo disappointing at the BO, we need a few of these things to bomb or we’ll start having a new remake every month.

[BK007]

But Dumbo is the only one besides the Jungle Book to look decent. 

 

The rest have looked like utter trash.

[Eric the Ape]

54 minutes ago, Menor said:

Another mediocre day of presales for Dumbo it looks like it'll end up about 75% of HTTYD3 at the same day.

It's not fully complete, as the final hour isn't fully updated, but no. (though that doesn't mean it's doing great )

Edited March 26, 2019 by CoolEric258

[lorddemaxus]

6 hours ago, BK007 said:

But Dumbo is the only one besides the Jungle Book to look decent. 

 

The rest have looked like utter trash.

Cinderella was pretty good. Probably the best of all the live action remakes if you ask me. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Nova]

Shazam isn’t doing too hot at my theater. It’s sold 31 combined tickets for 2D and 24 tickets for 3D. 

 

I know it has like 10 days left and it should be more walk up heavy than the typical CBM (I’m assuming this btw) but my theater usually overperforms when it comes to CBM so I expected much better sales for Shazam. Will see what happens in the next several days though. 

 

Dumbo is doing ok, I guess. It has two showtimes for Thursday night (one 2D and 1 3D) and has sold 38 2D tickets and 12 3D tickets. The only kids movies I followed at my theater were things like Finding Dory, Incredibles 2, SLOP etc so I have no idea what it’s sales mean at the moment other than I don’t expect it to break out. Probably looking at $40-$50M for the OW if I were to guess. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Nova

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Cinderella was pretty good. Probably the best of all the live action remakes if you ask me. 

Jungle Book, Cinderella & Pete's Dragon have been high quality

[The Panda]

6 hours ago, BK007 said:

But Dumbo is the only one besides the Jungle Book to look decent. 

 

The rest have looked like utter trash.

If the best these movies can do is decent, then it just makes the case even more against them.

[TalismanRing]

Best comp is probably CR though that was Summer

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday		B.O.
A Wrinkle In Time	3,698	4,864		15,601		$33.123m
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754		$44m
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074		$26.6m
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448			$23.05m
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870		$56.2m
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518		$21m
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046		$67.5m
How To Train Your Dragon 2	3,724	6,674	12,935			$55m
Wonder Park	607	988	1,749			$15.85m
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509		$24.56m
Dumbo	3,069

Edited March 26, 2019 by TalismanRing

[EconomySize]

Filling in that table:  3,698 was the Wrinkle in Time number for Monday.

 

Cumulative comps coming later today.

EDIT:

 

	Dumbo	Wrinkle	Pooh	Nutcracker
Total Tickets	10549	10309	2667	4655
Ratio		1.023	3.955	2.266
OW		33.12	24.56	21
Proj OW		33.89	97.14	47.59

 

 

None of these are remotely good comps - I *suppose* nutcracker is the best, but It's still not good.  Might be best to look at Thursday previews only - get an estimate for *that* number,  and compare to Maleficent (which had 4m in 7PM Thursday previews on it's way to $69m).

Edited March 26, 2019 by EconomySize

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Hopefully Dumbo can reach 40 mil OW still?

[Boxofficerules]

How’s Pet Sematary looking?

[Rebeccas]

Endgame presales seem to be confirmed for April 2nd so will probably fuck up a lot of the traffic for next week's releases.