The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

Just  did some digging and @Porthos' adjusted 10,954 number is slightly above where IW was just 2 days before previews.

On 4/24/2018 at 10:25 PM, Porthos said:

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-2 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

8/162 (+2/+11)

 

2D:  6/111 (+2/+8)

3D:  2/51 (+0/+3)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 121 showings [+9]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

7 (+1)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

8 (-2)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

56 (+9)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

8 (+3)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/332  (+0/+61)    

St: 0/332  (+0/+61)

Su: 0/321 (+0/+67)  

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (121/162 showings [+9/+11]):

100%:      7  (+1) [+1 non reserved]

90-99%:  15 (-1)

80-89%:  35 (+12)

70-79%:  27 (-2)

60-69%:  12 (-3)

50-59%:   8 (+3)

40-49%:   2 (nc)

30-39%:   1 (-3)

20-29%:   6 (+2)

10-19%:   2 (-1)

0-9%:      6  (+1)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	162	3875	14671	73.59%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:   2

Total Shows Added Today:   11 (9 reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:   708

Total Seats Sold Today:      691

---

2.045 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (10796 vs 5279)

 

===

 

Yes, that DOES say that 56 showings are at the equivalent of front two rows or less, never mind the sellouts and near sellouts.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Just  did some digging and @Porthos' adjusted 10,954 number is slightly above where IW was just 2 days before previews.

 

 

I wonder if the adjusted number can hit 15,000 - 2 days before previews. 

 

That would be crazy. 

[TLK]

These Endgame presales will actually hurt Shazam. That's millions of dollars that people have spend today on a CBM three days before another CBM opens.

[FlashMaster659]

If we go by the 12,261 number, that's on par with where IW was the day of previews around 12pm-1pm pst

[IceFire9yt]

1 minute ago, TLK said:

These Endgame presales will actually hurt Shazam. That's millions of dollars that people have spend today on a CBM three days before another CBM opens.

Nah, the actual threat from Endgame is that its sucking up all the oxygen.  No one's talking about Shazam right now, which makes it all the harder for it to break out.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah it's not like people are choosing to buy Endgame tickets instead of Shazam! tickets those that are gonna buy tickets for Shazam will probably do so a day later but yeah it is being lost a bit in the conversation atm which is unfortunate. 

[Eric the Ape]

12 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Well, akvalley still hasn't updated yet. But at least I have my theater's presales. In just a few hours (I don't know how many):

 

Avengers Endgame

1246

3016

41.31%

 

Wow. And the day is still young, so it'll probably sell at least half of my theater's tickets by the end of the day.

Avengers Endgame

1994

3016

66.11%

 

 

Well...it did sell at least half...by a considerable amount. Basically, outside of some late Sunday shows and a stray showtime here and  there, just about every showtime available has already sold at least half of the seats available. BONKERS

[Ledmonkey96]

7 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Avengers Endgame

1994

3016

66.11%

 

 

Well...it did sell at least half...by a considerable amount. Basically, outside of some late Sunday shows and a stray showtime here and  there, just about every showtime available has already sold at least half of the seats available. BONKERS

What are the chances it hits 75% by 8AM?

[FlashMaster659]

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Avengers Endgame

1994

3016

66.11%

 

 

Well...it did sell at least half...by a considerable amount. Basically, outside of some late Sunday shows and a stray showtime here and  there, just about every showtime available has already sold at least half of the seats available. BONKERS

Comps?

[Porthos]

25 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I wonder if the adjusted number can hit 15,000 - 2 days before previews. 

 

That would be crazy. 

I'll probably give two separate adjusted numbers for EG and IW.  One with exactly the same theaters and one with 'just' the extra tracking info removed. The latter will probably be the baseline comp/adjustment.

 

I know it's iffy doing the second, but it does kinda cut both ways.  On the one hand, Endgame playing in two more theaters than IW (so far) adds a LOT of seats to be purchased.  On the other hand, they still have to be purchased.  Thus for the 'main' comp, it'll be just the extra tracking info removed.  But as a side look, I think adding the info of a like-for-like might be interesting.  Just against IW though.

 

Also think I'll bring back the percentages of seats sold like I did back in the day as well as weekend numbers.  When it comes to weekend showings, I never check each showing, as I ain't got time for that.   So if there any pseudo-sellouts (no seats available but not officially sold out and/or only wheelchair/companion seats left), I won't find them like I do on the Thr count.

 

Finally I think in this one case, I'll also throw in Infinity War FINAL NUMBERS, as something of a target to be reached.

 

Naturally, to keep screen real estate under control there will be liberal use of spoiler boxes, probably split into sections.

 

For what it's worth the overall seat count right now is:

 

Seats available:

IW (T-23):  11125 total seats

IW (Final):  15159 total seats

EG (adj):    17983 total seats

EG (exact): 16564 total seats

EG (base):  21702 total seats

adj =    same tracking sources that was available when IW was out

exact = exact same theaters as IW was out (two theaters currently excluded)

 

No matter how it's cut, there are already more seats available for Endgame than there were for Infinity War.

 

[poweranimals]

49 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

Nah, the actual threat from Endgame is that its sucking up all the oxygen.  No one's talking about Shazam right now, which makes it all the harder for it to break out.

That was probably part of the plan. 

[Porthos]

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7*	201	6727	21702	69.00%

 

Total Sellouts Today:                       7 [*includes two non-reserved sellouts at a reserved seating theater - might be an error and removed later]

Total Seats Sold Today:           14975

 

2.8233x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after one day of pre-sales.

1.9336x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 23 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre-sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]

0.9998x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.

0.8851x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally, unless specifically noted otherwise.

 

COMPS:

IW (one day of pre-sales):     4662 tickets sold so far   [1 sellout/103 showings |      5511/10173 seats left  | 45.83% sold]

IW (23 days before release):  6807 tickets sold so far   [1 sellout/116 showings |      4318/11125 seats left  | 61.19% sold]

IW (final numbers):             13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings |   1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):                            13162 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/201 showings   |   4821/17983 seats left  | 73.19% sold]

EG (exact**):                       11651 tickets sold so far  [7 sellouts/177 showings   |   4238/15889 seats left  | 73.33% sold]

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 23 days before release)

Fri: 0 sellouts/240 showings [IW: 0/214]

Sat: 0 sellouts/240 showings [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 1 sellout/231 showings [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  7/201 [2D: 6/162 | 3D: 1/39]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 173 screens [IW: 82 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:       5 (+2 non-reserved sellouts) [IW: 1]

90-95%: 32 [IW: 10]

80-89%: 44 [IW: 7]

70-79%: 23 [IW: 17]

60-69%: 18 [IW: 18]

50-59%: 13 [IW: 5]

40-49%: 15 [IW: 6]

30-39%:   4 [IW: 8]

20-29%:   5 [IW: 3]

10-19%:   6 [IW: 6]

0-9%:       8 [IW: 1]

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Took me a little bit longer tonight as I wanted to figure out the best way to organize the data and give all the angles possible.

 

I'll probably throw in some comps for other movies I have later in a separate post, either tonight or tomorrow and then put them together in future posts.  But, honestly, I think IW v EG is the main topic here, hence the different ways to look at things.

 

So more later.  Just not sure when later.

[Cap]

@Porthos

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7*	201	6727	21702	69.00%

 

Total Sellouts Today:                       7 [*includes two non-reserved sellouts at a reserved seating theater - might be an error and removed later]

Total Seats Sold Today:           14975

 

2.8233x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after one day of pre-sales.

1.9336x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 23 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre-sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]

0.9998x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.

0.8851x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

COMPS:

IW (one day of pre-sales):     4662 tickets sold so far   [1 sellout/103 showings |      5511/10173 seats left  | 45.83% sold]

IW (23 days before release):  6807 tickets sold so far   [1 sellout/116 showings |      4318/11125 seats left  | 61.19% sold]

IW (final numbers):             13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings |   1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):                            13162 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/201 showings   |   4821/17983 seats left  | 73.19% sold]

EG (exact**):                       11651 tickets sold so far  [7 sellouts/177 showings   |   4238/15889 seats left  | 73.33% sold]

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 23 days before release)

Fri: 0 sellouts/240 showings [IW: 0/214]

Sat: 0 sellouts/240 showings [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 1 sellout/231 showings [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  7/201 [2D: 6/162 | 3D: 1/39]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

  Reveal hidden contents

Reserved seating information: 173 screens [IW: 82 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:       5 (+2 non-reserved sellouts) [IW: 1]

90-95%: 32 [IW: 10]

80-89%: 44 [IW: 7]

70-79%: 23 [IW: 17]

60-69%: 18 [IW: 18]

50-59%: 13 [IW: 5]

40-49%: 15 [IW: 6]

30-39%:   4 [IW: 8]

20-29%:   5 [IW: 3]

10-19%:   6 [IW: 6]

0-9%:       8 [IW: 1]

 

Mother of god

[Legion Again]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

2.8233x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after one day of pre-sales.

1.9336x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 23 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre-sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]

0.9998x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.

Seems reasonable enough to me. I mean, it’s not like IW had big presales to begin with. Nothing that should be difficult to triple or anything. Right? RIGHT!? 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Legion Again]

Do y’all remember 24 hours ago when there were concerns that Endgame might not be able to get as many showings as IW because of the runtime 

[Porthos]

50 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Do y’all remember 24 hours ago when there were concerns that Endgame might not be able to get as many showings as IW because of the runtime 

Oh, they're doing Whatever It Takes for Thursday, that's for sure.

 

Interested to see how the rest of the OW plays out.  That EG is neck and neck with IW locally at the same time is an good sign for it.  OTOH, IW finished at 391/389/370 (F/S/S) showings locally, and that might be tough for EG to match.

 

Might be why Disney is loosening things slightly here and playing it in a couple of extra theaters.  Helps goose up the overall screen count.

 

And while I can't imagine it's being replicated that much nationwide, and extra theater here and an extra theater there adds up after a little while. 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Got to say it really sucks that Pulse is down right now, as I'd really like to know how much the Sacramento market is over-performing, if it is.  At least have some sort of measuring stick/benchmark

 

I mean, just recently this area went nuts for Captain Marvel, so it's something I have to keep in mind.  

 

 

"Get your act together, Fandango! Daddy needs some comps!" is more or less what I am saying.

 

 

 

[Cap]

Okay, so, the effing up of my sleep cycle had me do a seat count of my local chain.

 

 

So, couple things:

 

- I love how this proves my theory that everyone hates the Stadium theater.  They JUST did a reno, so I doubt they will go to recliners.  But until they do, it will totally be the third choice.

 

- This doesn't look like a lot, but this is bonkers for our chain.  147 Showings OW.  The reason I normally don't track is that the pre-sales always show the same data.  The recliners, which is a smaller theater, always fills up first.  The Stadium never pre-sales anything beforehand.  And the IMAX wasn't reserved until January 2019, so this is the first big movie to track.

 

- The IMAX screen is 100% sold out on Thursday.  I would not be shocked if they added a 1:30AM showing.  The IMAX screen for the weekend is at about 65%.

 

- I dug through the thread for some IW comps and found:

 

On 4/10/2018 at 1:38 PM, captainwondyful said:

My theater’s late showing is the 10:10PM IMax. They ARE doing seven showings between 7PM and 10PM. So, not open later. Just canceling everything else.

 

 

Quote

No.  The presales are NOT eating up walk-ups, because up here there's neither (A) pre-sales nor (B) pre-sales data due to lack of reserved seating.  Seriously.

 

Only three local theaters offer reserved seating.  They stand at:

 

Fancy Recliners: 

Thursday Previews (4 Showings): 127/331 [38.36%]

FSS (10 Showings A Day): 195/2787 [6.99%]

 

Love Seat Recliners

Thursday Previews (6 Showings): 114/278 [41.00%]

FFS (10 Showings): 146/1920 [7.60%]

 

Reserved Stadium

Thursday Previews (6 Showings): 195/1418 [13.75%]

FFS (36 Showings): 158/9842 [1.60%]

 

* This theater actually has a lower seat count on Saturday (of 454) due to the Met Opera screening at 12:55PM in the Largest Theater They Have.  

 

The elephant in the room is the IMAX theater doesn't have reserved seating.  It has scheduled 7 showings on Thursday, and 14 showings a day on FSS.  It makes sense the Reserved Stadium theater is dead: it's the same company and it's only 20 minutes from the IMAX.  It's also the only IMAX in the state, and the next closest one is 80 miles away.  I have no idea how the IMAX is selling, because there staff is hilariously obtuse about everything. They didn't even know pre-sales were happening when I bought mine.

 

Love Sear Recliners is the Recliners In the EG comps. 

 

EG has Sold more up here then AIW did with 12 days left. 

Edited April 3, 2019 by captainwondyful
Clarifying imax 100% sell out was for imax screen not whole theater.