The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

That's a lot of empty seats 🙂... Are these for Thursday showings? do you have any comps.

 

These are all for Thur previews starting at 4pm. 

 

Sorry, no seat  comps other than than the ones I just did for AEG's first day.  I'm overly reliant on Fandango Pulse nowadays.

 

Once upon a time I could have looked at Yahoo, RT or even FB likes  to see to get a good gauge.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

21 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

These are all for Thur previews starting at 4pm. 

 

Sorry, no seat  comps other than than the ones I just did for AEG's first day.  I'm overly reliant on Fandango Pulse nowadays.

 

Once upon a time I could have looked at Yahoo, RT or even FB likes  to see to get a good gauge.

Spoiled brat!!! Lol. *just kidding, of course! In any case, when can we expect to see Pet Semetary on Pulse/MT? I have no idea about comps for R-rated movies or horrors.

[FlashMaster659]

32 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

At two most popular AMC theaters in NYC: Lincoln Square and Empire, Shazam is doing fairly well on IMAX and premium screens (1/2 full or better) for tomorrow afternoon/evening. This trend holds true for AMCs across the board in the surrounding areas as well. However it is not selling nearly as well in 3D and digital. We shall see how things play out. I am surprised that Deadline did not release updated tracking this week. 

Deadline does that on Thursdays

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

At two most popular AMC theaters in NYC: Lincoln Square and Empire, Shazam is doing fairly well on IMAX and premium screens (1/2 full or better) for tomorrow afternoon/evening. This trend holds true for AMCs across the board in the surrounding areas as well. However it is not selling nearly as well in 3D and digital. We shall see how things play out. I am surprised that Deadline did not release updated tracking this week. 

For comps -  the lowest opener I've tracked in NYC theaters is Justice League which of course under performed the amount of showings it was even initially given so it didn't expand much in the last week

 

As of Thur noon- JL:  (It didn't have  a lot of sellouts or 80%+ so not a lot of theaters to comp)

 

LC - 7 showings.  The two earliest IMAX screenings were both 90%+ full

Empire 25- 13 showings - with 2 near sellouts

Alamo Drafthouse Brklyn:  5 showings, 2 near sellouts and 1 theater at 85%

AMC 84th: 5 showings, 2 at 90%

AMC Clifton Commons 16 - 8 showings, 2 at 90%

AMC Starplex Ridgefield Park 12  - 7 showings, 1 sellout, 2 at 85%

AMC Village - 7 showings, 1 at 90%

Regal E-Walk - 6 showings, 1 sellout & 2 at 85%

Regal New Roc Stadium 18 IMAX & RPX - 11 showings, 2 at 85%

 

EDIT: Missed a few

 

AMC Bay Plaza Cinema 13 - 14 showings, 2 near sellouts

AMC Loews Bay Terrace 6 - 5 showings, 4 near sellouts

AMC Loews Fresh Meadows 7 - 6 showings, 4 near sellouts

AMC Loews Kips Bay 15 -  13 showings, 1 sellout

Kerasotes ShowPlace 14 - 14 showings, 6 near sell outs

 

 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Ms Lady Hawk]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

For comps -  the lowest opener I've tracked in NYC theaters is Justice League which of course under performed the amount of showings it was even initially given so it didn't expand much in the last week

 

As of Thur noon- JL:  (It didn't have  a lot of sellouts or 80%+ so not a lot of theaters to comp)

 

LC - 7 showings.  The two earliest IMAX screenings were both 90%+ full

Empire 25- 13 showings - with 2 near sellouts

Alamo Drafthouse Brklyn:  5 showings, 2 near sellouts and 1 theater at 85%

AMC 84th: 5 showings, 2 at 90%

AMC Clifton Commons 16 - 8 showings, 2 at 90%

AMC Starplex Ridgefield Park 12  - 7 showings, 1 sellout, 2 at 85%

AMC Village - 7 showings, 1 at 90%

Regal E-Walk - 6 showings, 1 sellout & 2 at 85%

Regal New Roc Stadium 18 IMAX & RPX - 11 showings, 2 at 85%

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you! But even with JL underperforming, I don’t think the expectation is for Shazam to open anywhere near 94 million. Frankly, I think most people would be happy with half of that. Wonder whether the comps show whether compared to JL or other movies, that can happen? So far, the IMAX showings are good for Shazam’s previews. It’s the other formats that are concerning. 

[TalismanRing]

20 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Thank you! But even with JL underperforming, I don’t think the expectation is for Shazam to open anywhere near 94 million. Frankly, I think most people would be happy with half of that. Wonder whether the comps show whether compared to JL or other movies, that can happen? So far, the IMAX showings are good for Shazam’s previews. It’s the other formats that are concerning. 

Lincoln Center IMAX is the only true IMAX screen in NYC so it almsot always fills up.  Other IMAX showings as you say also look good but there are an awful lot of regular screens with just a handful of seats sold which as you say is worrying.  But I expect those 4pm shows to fill up better with after school walk ups

 

277 total showings (4:55pm WED)

 

Some other comps - so many more theaters over the last few years have gone reserved which makes them able to check capacity - otherwise only see a full sell out

 

Showings / Reserved / Near Sell Outs / Total Sellout

 

Civil War: 459/96/87/37

GOGT 2:  342/88/34/9

WW: 275/150/30/5

SM:HC: 320/167/61/7

Thor R:  313/192/26/ 6

Justice League:  345/171/27/3

Black Panther:  449/ 262/69/ 30 (Wed numbers)

DP2: 443 / 293 / 36 / 4

Avengers: Infinity War: 661/380/ 180/115

 

 

Edited April 3, 2019 by TalismanRing

[MattW]

I don't have hard numbers but it looks a lot like Force Awakens in my area, and I think theaters around me outperform for star wars relative to superhero stuff.  With the presales reports I'm thinking the chance it opens under infinity war is probably in the 10% range, 255-285 seems like a good 95% CI right about now.

 

 

[MrGlass2]

RIP Akvalley's Fandango Pulse Pipeline. (2018-2019)

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

RIP Akvalley's Fandango Pulse Pipeline. (2018-2019)

Fandango should get unstuck once Avengers crazyness pass ?

 

The dataviz website is still there, just stuck on april-2.

[MattW]

Maybe fandango decided they didn't like someone else tracking their data and nixed it for good.  I'm sure they know about it at this point

[TalismanRing]

5 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Since Pulse is down

 

My local in NYC for Shazam! as of right now

 

19 / 329
47 / 329
22 /329

10 / 320
10 / 320

10/ 301
11/301

 

129 / 2229 = 5.78%

Might as well do PS - at 5:50pm

 

Pet Cemetary

 

26 / 257

6/  257

 

32/514 =  6.22%

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, MattW said:

Maybe fandango decided they didn't like someone else tracking their data and nixed it for good.  I'm sure they know about it at this point

But don't they directly provide the Pulse Ap on Apple products? 

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

Maybe fandango decided they didn't like someone else tracking their data and nixed it for good.  I'm sure they know about it at this point

Maybe, but would they not have closed it, it is still up :

 

https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html

 

Making it look like a bug very much.

 

The data was using the 1,000 latest sales, maybe that it sold too fast for a while for what some code expected to be the maximums.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Am I tripping or did Endgame just move UP on mt.com? It was at 56.1% some point before at now its 56.3%

[Porthos]

From akvalley's Twitter account:

 

 

So whenever Fandango gets around to resetting its own APIs, if ever, is when the tracker starts up again.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Maybe, but would they not have closed it, it is still up :

 

https://www.fandango.com/dataviz/index.html

 

Making it look like a bug very much.

 

The data was using the 1,000 latest sales, maybe that it sold too fast for a while for what some code expected to be the maximums.

Even then they weren't counting any AEG sales and the sale times are all over the place

[Menor the Destroyer]

Pulse resets every week right? So it should be back up by next Monday. If akvalley's scraper is just pulling from the website then that implies Pulse itself is what resets every Monday, not the tracker (which was what I had thought before)

Edited April 3, 2019 by Menor

[Porthos]

56 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Lincoln Center IMAX is the only true IMAX screen in NYC so it almsot always fills up.  Other IMAX showings as you say also look good but there are an awful lot of regular screens with just a handful of seats sold which as you say is worrying.  But I expect those 4pm shows to fill up better with after school walk ups

 

277 total showings (4:55pm WED)

 

Some other comps - so many more theaters over the last few years have gone reserved which makes them able to check capacity - otherwise only see a full sell out

 

Showings / Reserved / Near Sell Outs / Total Sellout

 

Civil War: 459/96/87/37

GOGT 2:  342/88/34/9

WW: 275/150/30/5

SM:HC: 320/167/61/7

Thor R:  313/192/26/ 6

Justice League:  345/171/27/3

Black Panther:  449/ 262/69/ 30 (Wed numbers)

DP2: 443 / 293 / 36 / 4

Avengers: Infinity War: 661/380/ 180/115

 

 

I took a looksee at Century Arden for Shazam! and it's kinda interesting.  The 4pm to 5pm shows, including the PLF screen, aren't doing so hot.   Really picks up at 7pm though, before crashing again for the 10pm and later shows:

 

Arden            
8:00 (3D)    94    110    14.55%
11:05 (3D)  109    110    0.91%
4:00 (2D)   247    260    5.00%
7:00 (2D)   152    260    41.54%
10:05 (2D)  227    260    12.69%
4:30 (2D)   136    160    15.00%
5:00 (2D)    98    110    10.91%
7:30 (2D)    89    160    44.38%
10:35 (2D)  141    160    11.88%

	    1293   1590	  18.68% 
	    297 tickets sold

 

Venom and AM&TW were the lowest tracked movies I did region wide.  It's already been discussed why AM2 is a bad comp,  but I can separate out my info for just Century Arden on the Wed night of release for Venom:

 

Arden                                       			
6:30 (3D) 	67	110	39.09%
9:15 (3D) 	67	110	39.09%
5:00 (2D) 	106	161	34.16%
7:45 (2D) 	37	161	77.02%
10:00 (2D)	105	110	4.55%
10:30 (2D)	88	110	20.00%
11:00 (2D)	106	110	3.64%
5:30 (2D) 	168	260	35.38%
8:30 (2D)	116	260	55.38%
11:15 (2D)	255	260	1.92%
			
	       1115	1652	32.51% 
               537 tickets sold

Now this would still be missing about six to seven hours of sales, so even more of an imperfect comp.  But 297/537 = 55.31% = 5.5m Thr, which is more or less what some of the comps were pointing to before Pulse crashed.

 

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Pulse resets every week right? So it should be back up by next Monday. If akvalley's scraper is just pulling from the website then that implies Pulse itself is what resets every Monday, not the tracker (which was what I had thought before)

Akvalley's tracker resets every week.  I have no idea when Fandango looks under the hood and performs maintenance on its apps.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Porthos

[cax16]

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/shazam-box-office-opening-weekend-pet-sematary-1203177258/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

 

shazam 45-50

Pet Sematary north of 25

Edited April 3, 2019 by cax16