WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Which again makes Mockingjay 1 one of the most unexplained drops ever, right next to Kung Fu Panda 2. Both coming off big installments which everyone liked and were primed for the next movie.

 

There is a combination of possible factor

 

1) Worst reviews of the series at that point

2) Not liked book/no high concept like the games to sell it

3) Part 1 factor I imagine, if it would have been the last movie of the franchise it would have probably made a bit more

 

But also apparently the marketing was smaller than the previous entry or the usual blockbuster, Liongates did try a new low release cost approach for the last 2 movie of the franchise:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/24/business/media/hunger-games-studio-lionsgate-punches-above-its-hollywood-weight.html

 

 

[John Marston]

Just now, DAARRRRR said:

While OST wasn't liked by many it didn't have nearly the same vitriol has AoE

 

 

 

all the TF movies have vitriol

 

but the truth is the TF movies have been overperforming from the beginning. Nobody would have expected a franchise based on the TF toys to make the money it has been doing back in 2006

[baumer]

I think Transformers can do 200. I think there's still enough people out there that are somewhat interested in it.

[That One Girl]

Just now, grim22 said:

 

Yeah, if Abrams made STID in 2011 instead of Super 8, it would have led to a thriving Trek franchise currently I think. And why hide Khan? That was a stupid marketing decision.

 

But...we wouldn't have gotten Super 8 sooner than we did.

 

Super 8 = one of the most underrated movies of the 2010s.

[Biggestgeekever]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

it can happen. It is not locked but it can happen thanks to good trailers, summer days and 4th of July holiday. 

TF4 had the exact same things going for it and still made almost exactly the same amount as On Stranger Tides. And 5 faces much stronger competition.

 

Maybe saying $200M won't happen is too much, but I think it is is very, very unlikely.

Edited May 28, 2017 by Biggestgeekever

[DAJK]

Hopefully next weekend sees 2 40M openers, would make for some nice excitement after all the "doom and gloom" of the past couple of weeks. But as it is I'm seeing

 

WW - $125M (a lot higher than I had it a month ago)

Underpants - $36M (not much for kids has come out in a while, I imagine it will make decent cash)

[Ethan Hunt]

Trans5fers looks awesome to me. Give me that feminism.

[GiantCALBears]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

ah yes, I remember loads thinking the opening weekend record and 400m was locked for that one

Its performance still is baffling to me esp given IM3 which wasn't exactly a great sequel either. Sure IM3 had a post TA halo effect but that difference from IM2 having a IM halo effect is still pretty ridiculous. 

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

Yeah, if Abrams made STID in 2011 instead of Super 8, it would have led to a thriving Trek franchise currently I think. And why hide Khan? That was a stupid marketing decision.

Spoiler

a "dying" trek franchise was totally worth the modern classic that is Super 8 IMO

 

[DAJK]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Trans5fers looks awesome to me. Give me that feminism.

I mean, the odd numbered tranformers movies have been good, and I'm loving some of the medieval flashback vibes here. I'll be there opening weekend for sure

[That One Girl]

Just now, DAJK said:

  Hide contents

a "dying" trek franchise was totally worth the modern classic that is Super 8 IMO

 

 

Super 8 is quite possibly my favorite movie of 2011.  It's such a fantastic movie.

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Yeah, if Abrams made STID in 2011 instead of Super 8, it would have led to a thriving Trek franchise currently I think. And why hide Khan? That was a stupid marketing decision.

I'm probably in the minority here but I think STID is fine, it's not as good as the previous installment but maybe it was destined to underperform in a way the forum couldn't understand beforehand. 

[Daxtreme]

2 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Trans5fers looks awesome to me. Give me that feminism.

 

Oh you mean that feminism? 

 

 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Oh you mean that feminism? 

 

 

 

Give me a taste of that...delicious feminism.

[wileECoyote]

1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:

 

True, but worse drop than Iron Man 2 this weekend.

It has followed IM2 relatively closely.

 

Disney has GotG2 dropping -13.6% on Sunday.  It's a conservative hold compared to IM2 (-5.1%), AoU (-2.9%), CACW (-4.1%), IM3 (-11.8%).  More likely than not, it'll go up with actual.  380+ looks good, 390 doable. 400 unlikely but not dead.

 

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

Oh you mean that feminism? 

 

 

I see y0u pointing me to one of the most iconic scenes in film history and I'm not sure why

[filmnerdjamie]

Star Trek Into Darkness could have been the exact same film with the exact same marketing. But released in June 2012 (originally announced), then yes I think we're looking at a $300M grosser. It was originally going to open against The Amazing Spider-Man and I maintain (even today) it would have eaten Webhead alive had that happened.

 

Why they waited too long... well you can thank Abrams for that. Heard some stories and he was playing hardball behind the scenes before he would agree to direct. That stalled everything.

[Ethan Hunt]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I mean, the odd numbered tranformers movies have been good, and I'm loving some of the medieval flashback vibes here. I'll be there opening weekend for sure

I'm glad we got rid of Peltz. The new chick seems like she could be a compelling character. Maybe no Sam Witwicky but we'll see

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Star Trek Into Darkness could have been the exact same film with the exact same marketing. But released in June 2012 (originally announced), then yes I think we're looking at a $300M grosser. It was originally going to open against The Amazing Spider-Man and I maintain (even today) it would have eaten Webhead alive had that happened.

 

Why they waited too long... well you can thank Abrams for that. Heard some stories and he was playing hardball behind the scenes before he would agree to direct. That stalled everything.

 

 

why do you think Iron Man 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 didn't meet expectations?

[Orestes]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

And why hide Khan? That was a stupid marketing decision.

 

Not only was it stupid, but they weren't fooling anybody. It just made the marketing and the whole "mystery box" nonsense extra obnoxious. Even worse that IM3 had successfully pulled off a similar twist, and kept it a surprise, a couple weeks earlier.