Weekend thread | IT Floats again in its 4th weekend: 17.3M...Cruise and Kingsman fight it out for 2nd: 17.016 and 17.0

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Found two low-budget affairs that were very profitable (and well appreciated).

 

Bridge of Spies (2015): 72.3m dom + 93.2m os = 165.5m ww on a 40m prod budget (4.14x)

I know it's an original cause go nominated for Original Screenplay.

 

Before that Saving Mr. Banks (2013) : 83.3 dom + 34.6m os = 117.9m ww on a 35m prod budget. (3.37x)

Was original as far as I know.

 

Before that...don't know. Went back till 2010 but couldn't find anything. Lincoln (2012) was based on Team of Rivals but at first thought that was a possibility.

Bridge of Spies and Lincoln were DreamWorks titles that Disney merely distributed.

[James]

Anyone else thinking 75m could happen for Blade Runner on OW?

 

As for the studio talk, there is a reason a lot of people support WB. There is no other studio out there that takes as many risk as them, with big budgets for untested properties. Granted, they can be hit and miss and WB, like any other studio, looks to make money. And they have franchises too, but I also think they are the ones that push the most for creative freedom.

[XO21]

WB didn't even make BR...

[grey ghost]

27 minutes ago, Barnack said:

But it is not a studio goal to have the biggest box office (biggest profit is), thus having the biggest box office is not really "winning" and that why it is arbitrary to use that metric.

 

Secondly that metric is deeply flawed, people will for example count Blade Runner for WB or Bond for Sony exactly like they do for a fully studio owned Harry Potter/Minions franchise movie, that is obviously a big problem with using that metric.

 

The terms of a competition doesn't need to be acknowledged by the competitors.

 

A racing hound is trying a catch a rabbit. It could care less that you bet your house it would rank in the top 3.

 

Plus, I doubt Sony or Paramount would complain much if they beat Disney last year and made 4 billion DOMESTIC from a couple dozen movies.

 

That's a huge accomplishment because it would require a substantial amount of appreciation and support for numerous films that could've easily flopped.

 

If you think measuring profit is a fun spectator sport then enjoy comparing Get Out to Split. I think many of us find whether WB's remaining big guns (BR2049, JL, etc) are impressive enough to beat Disney's (Thor 3, Star Wars, CoCo) and win the year far more exciting and rewarding. This battle of the titans has lasted all year and involves countless creators and movie goers. It makes the superbowl, NASCAR cup, and Kentucky derby look like child's play. 

Edited October 1, 2017 by grey ghost

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

5 animated films a year is too much for one studio, I’m worried they’ll be animation fatigue soon. 

 

I don’t see Minecraft or Rampage being huge hits, Minecraft seems like it is coming too late. Scooby should do fine and of course WAG can tap into the other characters in the WB Animation library like Looney Tunes, Flintstones etc as well as things like Bone

 

 

That 5 films a year thing isn't set in stone but I'm pretty sure Universal is doing at least three a year (so 1-2 DWA/OD and 1 Illumination). As long as their quality animated movies and kids, animation will continue, audiences will just get more selective.

 

Minecraft, I can see it doing Angry Birds numbers. Rampage should make decent numbers. WAG however needs the most work. Scooby and Lego 2 should both do $150M/$300M at worst imo. (Maybe $100M/$300M for Scooby). TTG has the best chance for $100M between it and Smallfoot but both can go sub $100M/~$150M. Say what you want about SPA and Sony but they have been able to get 4 out of 6 of their films in the last two years get ~$200M WW, WAG only has 2.

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, James said:

Anyone else thinking 75m could happen for Blade Runner on OW?

 

As for the studio talk, there is a reason a lot of people support WB. There is no other studio out there that takes as many risk as them, with big budgets for untested properties. Granted, they can be hit and miss and WB, like any other studio, looks to make money. And they have franchises too, but I also think they are the ones that push the most for creative freedom.

I don't think it will be easy to beat Dunkirk's ow. Dunkirk had similar buzz but

- being in summer the no-schools-Friday was strong and the Sunday hold (-25%, thanks to no-schools-Monday) was also solid.

- had Nolan's name.

 

On the other hand,

- BR49 has the fan-base of the original who will inflate and front-load the weekend, trying to cancel out Dunkirk's summer advantage and Nolan's pull.

- BR49 also has a bigger cast, with all due respect to actors of Dunkirk.

 

But matching Gravity's ow of 55m odd is as far as I can go. 45-50m is realsitic imo.

Edited October 1, 2017 by a2knet

[Maxmoser3]

IT easily leads a three-way race. This has been the first time that a narrow win Weekend with a three-for-all since September 21-23 2012. 

 

IT should  outgross The Sixth Sense by Thursday, and even though Happy Death Day comes out next week for horror fans, IT should still hold on fine with a end of run domestic total around $320 million and north of $620 million WW. 

 

American Made had an ok debut in the states with an estimated $17 million, which is over the entire run of Cruise's last leading man R-rated film Lions For Lambs and is ahead of the debut of last year's true-story gunrunner film War Dogs. With more competition for adults in October, American Made should hold on fine and should make above $50 million domestic and over $150 million worldwide which should be a fine profit for Universal. 

 

Kingsman:The Golden Circle took a dip this weekend while it wasn't far from American Made or IT this weekend, it still had a large drop. As it is right now under its predecessor, and with Blade Runner 2049 coming Friday and some steeper declines coming towards the horizon. Kingsman may fall short of $100 million, but at least overseas could help it back maybe. 

 

Lego Ninjago had an ok hold, but is still getting beaten down in comparison to its predecessors as their second weekends were 4-day weekends. Overseas hasn't really helped out Ninjago too much with a lackluster $22 million overseas and an under $60 million WW total as of this afternoon. Considering lack of family films, and true family event films, Ninjago could hold fine and should make close to $55 million domestic while overseas looks to be relatively the same in the future. 

 

Flatliners died on its opening weekend, the horror remake/sequel of the 1990 film debuted with an estimated $6.7 million which was below the $10 million debut of the original film 27 years ago. The debut was even under a similar film, The Thing(2011) which debuted with $8.4 million and ended its run with $16 million. But it was better than the debuts of Sorioty Row and The Invasion remakes. With lackluster word of mouth, and  a noteworthy 0% critic score, Flatliners will likely be euthanized soon, and should make close to $15 million domestic.

 

other releases may be shared later. September 2017 broke the record with an amazing $694.8 million! Which outgrosses this past August by over $20 million. 2017 so far is ahead of '12,'13,and '14. But is down a hair from '15, and limpin from '16. But with a big potential tentpole in October, Thor, Justice League, and Coco in November, and Star Wars and even Pitch Perfect 3 in December. 2017 should match 2016's record. If not then 2018 here we come! 

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, James said:

Anyone else thinking 75m could happen for Blade Runner on OW?

 

Doubt it, the long running time is really gonna limit the number of shows per day. It'll most likely land in the same mid-$50M area like Gravity and The Martian did with identical release spots.

[Gumby]

4 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Poor Ellen Page, not only is her career dead but Juno is completely forgotten. 

Honest to blog?

[Jake Gittes]

4 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

43

N

Lucky

Magn.

$9,200

-

5

-

$1,840

$9,200

-

1

 

 

 

Was a bit of a false alarm in the end. Still not great numbers but at least leaves room for some expansion

 

33

N

Lucky

Magn.

$46,000

-

5

-

$9,200

$46,000

-

1

[a2k]

GIRLS TRIP made it to 115m dom this weekend. 3.69x multiplier.

[Zakiyyah6]

13 minutes ago, XO21 said:

WB didn't even make BR...

Who said they did? They are distributing it in the US and WB are mostly good at marketing so we bring them up. Of course if Blade Runner is a big hit it won't mean as much to WB as Wonder Woman and IT being smashes. 

 

What you should really be reminding people of is that WB didn't make Geostorm either and yet some on here act like they did so that they can pretend that it's going to hurt WB more than it will. 

[Cochofles]

18 minutes ago, XO21 said:

WB didn't even make BR...

Did Disney make Spider-Man: Homecoming or any of the MCU films?

[WrathOfHan]

Oh shit, BOTS has a 25M budget. This is probably going down as a loss for Searchlight.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Oh shit, BOTS has a 25M budget. This is probably going down as a loss for Searchlight.

Not surprised, recreating an entire era isn't cheap.

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Oh shit, BOTS has a 25M budget. This is probably going down as a loss for Searchlight.

Not a bad budget but yeah it's going to be tough for them to make money off of it. They released it wide fast, it's obvious they thought it had more mainstream appeal than it does. It's going to need some very, very long legs.

[the beast]

Projection For Blade Runner 2049:

RT: 98%, 8.9 Avg Rating

 

Friday: $21.3 million

Saturday: $26.7 million (+25%)

Sunday: $17.4 million (-35%) / $65.4 million weekend

 

Monday: $5.6 million

Tuesdsay: $6.8 million

Wednesday: $4.5 million

Thursday: $4.3 million

 

Friday: $12.5 million (+190%)

Saturday: $17.5 million (+40%)

Sunday: $10.9 million (-38%) / $40.9 million (-37.5%)

 

Monday: $4.9 million

Tuesday: $3.3 million

Wednesday: $2.4 million

Thursday: $2.3 million

 

Friday: $6.3 million (+150%)

Saturday: $9.8 million (+45%)

Sunday: $5.9 million (-37%) / $22 million (-46.2%)

 

Projected Total: $245 million (3.75x)

 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Not a bad budget but yeah it's going to be tough for them to make money off of it. They released it wide fast, it's obvious they thought it had more mainstream appeal than it does. It's going to need some very, very long legs.

The real kicker is going to be the OS numbers. This isn't a movie that will have much appeal outside of the US. Even if it follows a similar trajectory as Gifted, it'll still fall short of double the budget.

[Zakiyyah6]

Whether I'm right or wrong I will probably end up predicting a 60+mil opening. As I said before, that's not the threshold for a successful weekend but unless reviews get substantially weaker I will probably be predicting something in the 60's.

Edited October 1, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, the beast said:

Projection For Blade Runner 2049:

RT: 98%, 8.9 Avg Rating

 

Friday: $21.3 million

Saturday: $26.7 million (+25%)

Sunday: $17.4 million (-35%) / $65.4 million weekend

 

Monday: $5.6 million

Tuesdsay: $6.8 million

Wednesday: $4.5 million

Thursday: $4.3 million

 

Friday: $12.5 million (+190%)

Saturday: $17.5 million (+40%)

Sunday: $10.9 million (-38%) / $40.9 million (-37.5%)

 

Monday: $4.9 million

Tuesday: $3.3 million

Wednesday: $2.4 million

Thursday: $2.3 million

 

Friday: $6.3 million (+150%)

Saturday: $9.8 million (+45%)

Sunday: $5.9 million (-37%) / $22 million (-46.2%)

 

Projected Total: $245 million (3.75x)

 

 

 

imo your OD of 21.3m is the most realistic part of this. But then it's not gonna increase from full Friday on Sat.