Top Grossing Movies of 2019 Predicts

[MagnarTheGreat]

On 12/29/2018 at 10:22 PM, MovieMan89 said:

Disagree. The Fandango yearly poll Is often overlooked for how accurate when it comes to gauging if a movie is going to be huge or not. If you go back and look at them through the years, whatever makes the top 5 has almost always opened big at least. The only movies to miss the top 5 anticipated on their respective year this decade and still gross over 400 are Frozen and Jumanji. It’s the 6-10 spots that tend to be a bit shakier. But it’s always a good sign for a movie being massive if it’s in the top 5 of that poll and a bad sign if it’s not.

 

Domestic 2019	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Avengers: End Game	#1	TBD	TBD
Captain Marvel	#2	TBD	TBD
Star Wars: Episode IX	#3	TBD	TBD
Spider-Man: Far From Home	#4	TBD	TBD
Toy Story 4	#5	TBD	TBD
Glass	#6	TBD	TBD
The Lion King	#7	TBD	TBD
Aladdin	#8	TBD	TBD
Dumbo	#9	TBD	TBD
Joker	#10	TBD	TBD

 

There's notable omissions here like Frozen 2, their survey may underestimate movies that appeal to children.

 

Here's the domestic Fandango charts for the past 4 years with the actual results:

 

Spoiler

Domestic 2018	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Avengers: Infinity War	#1	#1 ($258M)	#2 ($679M)
Black Panther	#2	#2 ($202M)	#1 ($700M)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	#3	#4 ($148M)	#4 ($417M)
Untitled Deadpool Sequel	#4	#5 ($126M)	#5 ($318M)
Solo: A Star Wars Story	#5	#6 ($84M)	#9 ($214M)
Incredibles 2	#6	#3 ($183M)	#3 ($609M)
Fantastic Beasts: TCoG	#7	#12 ($62M)	#19 ($157M)
A Wrinkle in Time	#8	#29 ($33M)	#30 ($100M)
X-Men: Dark Phoenix	#9	n/a	n/a
Ocean’s 8	#10	#22 ($42M)	#21 ($140M)

 

(2018 ranks could change because releases are still playing.)

 

Domestic 2017	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Star Wars: Episode VIII	#1	#1 ($220M)	#1 ($620M)
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2	#2	#3 ($146M)	#5 ($390M)
Beauty and the Beast	#3	#2 ($175M)	#2 ($504M)
Wonder Woman	#4	#7 ($103M)	#3 ($413M)
Spider-Man: Homecoming	#5	#6 ($117M)	#6 ($334M)
Justice League	#6	#9 ($94M)	#10 ($229M)
The Fate of the Furious	#7	#8 ($99M)	#12 ($226M)
Fifty Shades Darker	#8	#20 ($47M)	#27 ($115M)
Logan	#9	#10 ($88M)	#11 ($226M)
Despicable Me 3	#10	#11 ($72M)	#9 ($265M)

 

Domestic 2016	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	#1	#3 ($155M)	#1 ($532M)
Finding Dory	#2	#4 ($135M)	#2 ($486M)
Batman v Superman: DoJ	#3	#2 ($166M)	#8 ($330M)
Untitled Jason Bourne Movie	#4	#14 ($59M)	#15 ($162M)
Captain America: Civil War	#5	#1 ($179M)	#3 ($408M)
Star Trek Beyond	#6	#13 ($59M)	#16 ($159M)
Independence Day: Resurgence	#7	#19 ($41M)	#27 ($103M)
X-Men: Apocalypse	#8	#12 ($66M)	#17 ($155M)
Zoolander No. 2	#9	#72 ($14M)	#91 ($29M)
The Jungle Book	#10	#8 ($103M)	#5 ($364M)

 

Domestic 2015	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	#1	#1 ($248M)	#1 ($937M)
Avengers: Age of Ultron	#2	#3 ($191M)	#3 ($459M)
The Hunger Games: M-P2	#3	#6 ($103M)	#7 ($282M)
Fifty Shades of Grey	#4	#8 ($85M)	#17 ($166M)
Jurassic World	#5	#2 ($209M)	#2 ($652M)

 

 

There's always movies that sneak into the Top charts that Fandango doesn't see coming and movies that are overly represented. The Top 3 have been represented each time and it's been pretty close to accurate for the top grossing movie (A:IW and Black Panther were fairly close but in the reverse order).

Edited December 31, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat

[JGAR4LIFE]

LMAO at 2016; Jason Bourne beating Captain America: Civil War 

[MCKillswitch123]

Predicts for top 10 biggest hits of the Summer:

1. The Lion King - 700+
2. Avengers: Endgame - 660 (I know it opens in April, but c'mon, let's not pretend like its opening isn't basically the beginning of Summer season at this point)
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home - 350
4. Pokémon: Detective Pikachu - 320
5. Toy Story 4 - 280
6. The Secret Life Of Pets 2 - 260
7. Aladdin - 250
8. Godzilla: King Of The Monsters - 210
9. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood - 190-200
10. Hobbs & Shaw - 160-170

[PPZVGOS]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

And heres where we fundamentally disagree. After Attack of the Clones, the Star Wars franchise was officially declared dead and ruined by the "fans". Its a never-ending circle of a part of the SW fanbase which is incredibly hatefull to nearly everything related to new Star Wars films that come out.

 

And still, after Attack of the Clones, Revenge of the Sith would go on to become the biggest hit of 2005. Because in my eyes, the vast majority of SW-moviegoers - the GA - doesnt care one bit about internet hatred for Star Wars. All the GA wants is an entertaining film that pleases them.

 

And as long as Episode IX delivers exactly that, it will be a giant hit. Domestically, i see no real danger for main episode SW films. Overseas on the other hand is a different question.

Okay, neither of us has a crystal ball.  Maybe you are right and I am wrong. Maybe also somehow Episode 9 is great and takes theaters by storm, but if I had to bet, I would say that it won't do that well, meaning that it will gross even less than SW8. 

 

I hope we are here this time next year and see what happens then. 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Okay, neither of us has a crystal ball.  Maybe you are right and I am wrong. Maybe also somehow Episode 9 is great and takes theaters by storm, but if I had to bet, I would say that it won't do that well, meaning that it will gross even less than SW8. 

 

I hope we are here this time next year and see what happens then. 

 

Yeah, absolutely. What makes it even harder to predict Episode IX atm is that we dont have any marketing material. A Trailer would be really helpfull to give us the first hint.

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

 

Domestic 2019	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Avengers: End Game	#1	TBD	TBD
Captain Marvel	#2	TBD	TBD
Star Wars: Episode IX	#3	TBD	TBD
Spider-Man: Far From Home	#4	TBD	TBD
Toy Story 4	#5	TBD	TBD
Glass	#6	TBD	TBD
The Lion King	#7	TBD	TBD
Aladdin	#8	TBD	TBD
Dumbo	#9	TBD	TBD
Joker	#10	TBD	TBD

 

There's notable omissions here like Frozen 2, their survey may underestimate movies that appeal to children.

 

Here's the domestic Fandango charts for the past 4 years with the actual results:

 

  Hide contents

Domestic 2018	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Avengers: Infinity War	#1	#1 ($258M)	#2 ($679M)
Black Panther	#2	#2 ($202M)	#1 ($700M)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	#3	#4 ($148M)	#4 ($417M)
Untitled Deadpool Sequel	#4	#5 ($126M)	#5 ($318M)
Solo: A Star Wars Story	#5	#6 ($84M)	#9 ($214M)
Incredibles 2	#6	#3 ($183M)	#3 ($609M)
Fantastic Beasts: TCoG	#7	#12 ($62M)	#19 ($157M)
A Wrinkle in Time	#8	#29 ($33M)	#30 ($100M)
X-Men: Dark Phoenix	#9	n/a	n/a
Ocean’s 8	#10	#22 ($42M)	#21 ($140M)

 

(2018 ranks could change because releases are still playing.)

 

Domestic 2017	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Star Wars: Episode VIII	#1	#1 ($220M)	#1 ($620M)
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2	#2	#3 ($146M)	#5 ($390M)
Beauty and the Beast	#3	#2 ($175M)	#2 ($504M)
Wonder Woman	#4	#7 ($103M)	#3 ($413M)
Spider-Man: Homecoming	#5	#6 ($117M)	#6 ($334M)
Justice League	#6	#9 ($94M)	#10 ($229M)
The Fate of the Furious	#7	#8 ($99M)	#12 ($226M)
Fifty Shades Darker	#8	#20 ($47M)	#27 ($115M)
Logan	#9	#10 ($88M)	#11 ($226M)
Despicable Me 3	#10	#11 ($72M)	#9 ($265M)

 

Domestic 2016	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	#1	#3 ($155M)	#1 ($532M)
Finding Dory	#2	#4 ($135M)	#2 ($486M)
Batman v Superman: DoJ	#3	#2 ($166M)	#8 ($330M)
Untitled Jason Bourne Movie	#4	#14 ($59M)	#15 ($162M)
Captain America: Civil War	#5	#1 ($179M)	#3 ($408M)
Star Trek Beyond	#6	#13 ($59M)	#16 ($159M)
Independence Day: Resurgence	#7	#19 ($41M)	#27 ($103M)
X-Men: Apocalypse	#8	#12 ($66M)	#17 ($155M)
Zoolander No. 2	#9	#72 ($14M)	#91 ($29M)
The Jungle Book	#10	#8 ($103M)	#5 ($364M)

 

Domestic 2015	Fandango Anticipated Rank	Actual First Weekend Rank	Actual Total Box Office Rank
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	#1	#1 ($248M)	#1 ($937M)
Avengers: Age of Ultron	#2	#3 ($191M)	#3 ($459M)
The Hunger Games: M-P2	#3	#6 ($103M)	#7 ($282M)
Fifty Shades of Grey	#4	#8 ($85M)	#17 ($166M)
Jurassic World	#5	#2 ($209M)	#2 ($652M)

 

 

There's always movies that sneak into the Top charts that Fandango doesn't see coming and movies that are overly represented. The Top 3 have been represented each time and it's been pretty close to accurate for the top grossing movie (A:IW and Black Panther were fairly close but in the reverse order).

Right, it gets sketchy after the top 3 and top 5, but the biggest movies are pretty much always high up there. Which is why I think it’s proof at how overestimated TLK is around here. It should have at least cracked their top 3 if it was going to be a juggernaut, or top 5 for sure. Sure it’s a family movie which is at a disadvantage on these polls, but that was also my point as to why I’m saying more demand than we think may be there for TS4 after all for it to crack the top 5. 

[Mulder]

5 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

I think the problems the prequels and the new films have been quite different though.

 

 The prequels strength was the story and the path of Anakin while the weakness was the acting and such.

 

The new films strength is the acting and that its very well shot but a lot of the backlash it seems to be is over the story so far and that lacks a clear focus.

 

Now episode 9 may fix that.

The PT's story was absolutely torn to shreds at the time. The complaints over a SW opening crawl mentioning taxes are infamous to this day.

[JB33]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Right, it gets sketchy after the top 3 and top 5, but the biggest movies are pretty much always high up there. Which is why I think it’s proof at how overestimated TLK is around here. It should have at least cracked their top 3 if it was going to be a juggernaut, or top 5 for sure. Sure it’s a family movie which is at a disadvantage on these polls, but that was also my point as to why I’m saying more demand than we think may be there for TS4 after all for it to crack the top 5. 

Where was BEAUTY AND THE BEAST on the 2017 poll? Was it in the top 3?

[KP1025]

34 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Where was BEAUTY AND THE BEAST on the 2017 poll? Was it in the top 3?

Yes, it was #3. 

[jedijake]

For the people who are predicting around $200-$250 million for Aladdin,

 

1. What are you thinking the OW will be?

2. Are you pinning this prediction on the Memorial Day opening?

3. What kind of multiplier do you actually think this will get?

 

[TalismanRing]

Atom's Top 10 anticipated

 

Quote

Avengers 4: Endgame, starring Scarlett Johansson, Robert Downey Jr., Chris Hemsworth, Chris Evans, and Mark Ruffalo topped multiple lists by wide margins, including overall "most anticipated," "most anticipated superhero movie," and "most excited ensemble cast to see."

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/avengers-4-endgame-is-the-most-anticipated-movie-of-2019-finds-atom-tickets-survey-300771502.html

 

1. Avengers 4: Endgame
2. Captain Marvel
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home
4. Toy Story 4
5. The Lion King
6. Star Wars: Episode IX
7. Aladdin
8. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
9. Glass
10. Jumanji Sequel

[KP1025]

I wonder if Frozen 2 missing is because there's been zero marketing and not even much general news about the film other than the release date. Detective Pikachu missing despite the highly successful trailer is equally surprising. 

[YM!]

No Detective Pikachu is a bit alarming if it wants to make the top 5 or the predictions that we all are craving but they still have a few months to fix it.

 

44 minutes ago, jedijake said:

For the people who are predicting around $200-$250 million for Aladdin,

 

1. What are you thinking the OW will be?

2. Are you pinning this prediction on the Memorial Day opening?

3. What kind of multiplier do you actually think this will get?

 

1.) $85M-$90M OW/$105M-$115M 4 day/$235M-$260M, I do expect a hefty amount overseas though say $600M-$750M as the release dates will be more spread out. The main reason why I suspect a domestic underperformance is primarily the competitive landscape for families, Disney having to juggle marketing for Endgame, TS4 and Lion King with it and when Disney juggles marketing, one or two suffers, and tepid response not mention the track record of Guy Ritchie. If this opened in say November 2019 or 2020 I'd be much more optimistic.

2.) Sure, if I'm wrong I'm wrong and will accept my mistake

3.) The average multiple for a Disney live action remake is about 3.17x, the average Memorial Day opener 4 day represents 44.33% when using the top 10. My guess is Aladdin will have a multiple of 2.76x-2.89x but I suspect the first two weekend drops should be harsh, as I suspect they'll be fans on OW and Pets 2 which even though will drop from the first, is the first fully animated major movie since Dragon 3, and will steal a significant amount of it's family audiences but summer weekdays will help as after Pets 2 it's smooth sailing.

Edited December 31, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[JGAR4LIFE]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Atom's Top 10 anticipated

 

 

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/avengers-4-endgame-is-the-most-anticipated-movie-of-2019-finds-atom-tickets-survey-300771502.html

 

1. Avengers 4: Endgame
2. Captain Marvel
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home
4. Toy Story 4
5. The Lion King
6. Star Wars: Episode IX
7. Aladdin
8. X-Men: Dark Phoenix
9. Glass
10. Jumanji Sequel

Dark Phoenix and Jumanji 2? How are these lists even made? 

[Safeno Rdz]

On 12/28/2018 at 9:47 PM, jedijake said:

Aladdin's gonna make a LOT more than $543 million. I'd say at least $800 million. People underestimate the immense popularity.

Well, Cinderella is way more popular than Aladdin, and it grossed $543, even with the good reviews... Aladdin hasn't had good reactions so far to it's first images.

[Safeno Rdz]

On 12/29/2018 at 7:59 AM, jedijake said:

9. SLOP 2 $270 mill / $750 mill (it will be somewhat overshadowed by TS4)

Well, Inside out was a masterpiece, and it still got overshadowed by Minions in 2015, so I think there is a big chance that SLOP2 will end up surprising everyone and being bigger than TS4... besides, many Pixar fans don't agree with a 4th entry of the franchise, and TS is no longer a big thing among this generation's kids.

[2kt09]

6 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said:

Well, Cinderella is way more popular than Aladdin, and it grossed $543, even with the good reviews... Aladdin hasn't had good reactions so far to it's first images.

The music is a big factor.

[MagnarTheGreat]

Top 10 Domestic Movie Unadjusted Box Office (2009-2018)

Year	Total	Average	Median
2018*	$3.852B	$385.2M	$292.0M
2017	$3.801B	$380.1M	$362.0M
2016	$3.789B	$378.9M	$363.5M
2015	$4.005B	$400.5M	$344.5M
2014	$2.736B	$273.6M	$256.4M
2013	$3.168B	$316.8M	$282.6M
2012	$3.314B	$331.4M	$297.7M
2011	$2.489B	$248.9M	$225.5M
2010	$2.859B	$285.9M	$294.3M
2009	$3.263B	$326.3M	$285.2M
* 2018 results not final
best value in green; worst value in red

 

Top 10 Domestic Movie Unadjusted Box Office (2009-2018)
Year	Highest	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	Lowest
2018*	$700.1M	$678.8M	$608.6M	$416.8M	$318.5M	$265.5M	$220.2M	$216.6M	$213.8M	$213.2M
2017	$620.2M	$504.0M	$412.6M	$404.5M	$389.8M	$334.2M	$327.5M	$315.1M	$264.6M	$229.0M
2016	$532.2M	$486.3M	$408.1M	$368.4M	$364.0M	$363.1M	$341.3M	$330.4M	$325.1M	$270.4M
2015	$936.7M	$652.3M	$459.0M	$356.5M	$353.0M	$336.0M	$281.7M	$228.4M	$201.2M	$200.1M
2014	$350.1M	$337.1M	$333.2M	$259.8M	$257.8M	$255.1M	$245.4M	$241.4M	$233.9M	$222.5M
2013	$424.7M	$409.0M	$400.7M	$368.1M	$291.0M	$274.1M	$268.5M	$258.4M	$238.7M	$234.9M
2012	$623.4M	$448.1M	$408.0M	$304.4M	$303.0M	$292.3M	$262.0M	$237.3M	$218.8M	$216.4M
2011	$381.0M	$352.4M	$281.3M	$254.5M	$241.1M	$209.8M	$209.4M	$191.5M	$186.8M	$181.0M
2010	$415.0M	$334.2M	$312.4M	$300.5M	$296.0M	$292.6M	$251.5M	$238.7M	$217.6M	$200.8M
2009	$749.8M	$402.1M	$302.0M	$296.6M	$293.0M	$277.3M	$257.7M	$256.0M	$219.6M	$209.0M
Avg.	$573.3M	$460.4M	$392.6M	$333.0M	$310.7M	$290.0M	$266.5M	$251.4M	$232.0M	$217.7M
Med.	$576.2M	$428.6M	$404.4M	$330.4M	$299.5M	$284.8M	$259.9M	$240.1M	$219.2M	$214.8M
* 2018 results not final
best value in green; worst value in red

 

* 2018 results not final

Edited January 5, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat

[El Gato]

1) Avengers: Endgame

2) The Lion King

3) Detective Pikachu

4) Frozen 2

5) Hobbs & Shaw

6) Toy Story 4

7) Star Wars IX

8. Spider-Man: Far From Home

9) Shazam

10) Secret Life of Pets 2

 

Aladdin, Dumbo and Capatain Marvel are going to underperform relative to expectations. Godzilla/Joker will just miss the top 10, thanks to Hobbs and Shaw. I also don't know if Jumanji will be ready in time for a 2019 release, so i left it off the list.

Edited January 2, 2019 by El Gato

[James]

LOL at people predicting only 300m for Pikakchu.