Neucentro Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 On 12/31/2018 at 5:14 PM, JGAR4LIFE said: Dark Phoenix and Jumanji 2? How are these lists even made? Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was a massive hit not long ago. It's not surprising it's on the list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 On 12/31/2018 at 3:20 PM, YourMother the Edgelord said: No Detective Pikachu is a bit alarming if it wants to make the top 5 or the predictions that we all are craving but they still have a few months to fix it. 1.) $85M-$90M OW/$105M-$115M 4 day/$235M-$260M, I do expect a hefty amount overseas though say $600M-$750M as the release dates will be more spread out. The main reason why I suspect a domestic underperformance is primarily the competitive landscape for families, Disney having to juggle marketing for Endgame, TS4 and Lion King with it and when Disney juggles marketing, one or two suffers, and tepid response not mention the track record of Guy Ritchie. If this opened in say November 2019 or 2020 I'd be much more optimistic. 2.) Sure, if I'm wrong I'm wrong and will accept my mistake 3.) The average multiple for a Disney live action remake is about 3.17x, the average Memorial Day opener 4 day represents 44.33% when using the top 10. My guess is Aladdin will have a multiple of 2.76x-2.89x but I suspect the first two weekend drops should be harsh, as I suspect they'll be fans on OW and Pets 2 which even though will drop from the first, is the first fully animated major movie since Dragon 3, and will steal a significant amount of it's family audiences but summer weekdays will help as after Pets 2 it's smooth sailing. Aladdin's got a much bigger draw and much bigger fanbase to only make $85-$90 million OW. Memorial Day "flops" have nothing to do with the date. It has everything to do with the actual movies that came out at that time. When it came out Aladdin was the IT movie. Everyone was talking about it. That includes teenagers who are now 35-45 years old and have kids. If we are suspecting Lion King to make in the $600's-$700's million domestic then Aladdin should make at LEAST 50% of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, jedijake said: Aladdin's got a much bigger draw and much bigger fanbase to only make $85-$90 million OW. Memorial Day "flops" have nothing to do with the date. It has everything to do with the actual movies that came out at that time. When it came out Aladdin was the IT movie. Everyone was talking about it. That includes teenagers who are now 35-45 years old and have kids. If we are suspecting Lion King to make in the $600's-$700's million domestic then Aladdin should make at LEAST 50% of that. Here’s the thing though Lion King likely has the advantage of being the main event of the summer, where everything around it is trapped in a cage with it. There was a time when we believed the Star Wars fanbase would give Solo a minimum of $100M OW. Aladdin again faces three family films aiming at or have a good chance for $300M (Pikachu, Pets 2, and Toy Story 4) during the May-June period and the fact that the teaser isn’t extremely well received not to mention between Disney having to juggle three major blockbusters during the summer to market, I’d think they would focus more on TS4 and TLK. I’m not denying it won’t do well and there is evidently some hype behind it but the competition surrounding it along with other issues is why I think a domestic underperformance is likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Gato Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 39 minutes ago, jedijake said: Aladdin's got a much bigger draw and much bigger fanbase to only make $85-$90 million OW. Memorial Day "flops" have nothing to do with the date. It has everything to do with the actual movies that came out at that time. When it came out Aladdin was the IT movie. Everyone was talking about it. That includes teenagers who are now 35-45 years old and have kids. If we are suspecting Lion King to make in the $600's-$700's million domestic then Aladdin should make at LEAST 50% of that. I think the predictions for Aladdin are spot on. The teaser left a lot to be desired and was met with a mixed reaction and the first look from EW was met with almost unanimous negativity. All people seem to be talking about is how Genie isn't blue, Naomi Scott doesn't look anything like Jasmine, and how Mena isn't attractive enough to be Aladdin (I've seen plenty of those complaints). Couple all that with it being sandwiched between several family films, being directed by Guy Ritchie (hit or miss) and the memorial day curse for Disney, and it's not looking too good. For once BOT isn't overestimating a Disney film. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagnarTheGreat Posted January 2, 2019 Share Posted January 2, 2019 (edited) What spurred my data table post earlier today was that IGN article that thinks 2019 is: $5.352B Total Top 10 Domestic Box Office $535.2M Average Top 10 Domestic Box Office $493.8M Median Top 10 Domestic Box Office Quote Projected 2018 Domestic Box Office Top 10 1. Star Wars: Episode IX - $886.2 million 2. Avengers: Endgame - $824.7 million 3. Toy Story 4 - $658.2 million 4. Captain Marvel - $627.5 million 5. Frozen 2 - $548.7 million 6. The Lion King $438.9 million 7. Jumanji Sequel - $386.3 million 8. IT Chapter 2 - $356.8 million 9. Godzilla: King of Monsters - $318.4 million 10. Hobbs & Shaw: $306.2 million Total/Average/Median seemed unlikely to me based on history. Edited January 5, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 WORLDWIDE TOP 10 IN ORDER Avengers: Endgame The Lion King Star Wars: Episode 9 Frozen 2 Toy Story 4 Alita: Battle Angel Pokemon Detective Pikachu Captain Marvel Untitled Terminator Project Spider-Man: Far From Home Shazam! Welcome to the prelim to decade of the Jim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGAR4LIFE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, IronJimbo said: WORLDWIDE TOP 10 IN ORDER Avengers: Endgame The Lion King Star Wars: Episode 9 Frozen 2 Toy Story 4 Alita: Battle Angel Pokemon Detective Pikachu Captain MarvelUntitled Terminator Project Spider-Man: Far From Home Shazam! Welcome to the prelim to decade of the Jim Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) Alita, Pikachu, and Terminator in the top 10 WW for 2019? I mean-everyone's entitle to their own opinion BUT there does come a point where things are just silly and foolish if meant to be serious. BUT at least the top 5, #8 and #10 are reasonable. Btw, there are 11 on that list. Edited January 3, 2019 by jedijake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zakiyyah6 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Terminator is a dead franchise. Detective Pikachu will be under predicted like Aquaman was. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulder Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Zakiyyah6 said: Terminator is a dead franchise. Detective Pikachu will be under predicted like Aquaman was. I don't think you can call Detective Pikachu underpredicted on here at least. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 51 minutes ago, jedijake said: Alita, Pikachu, and Terminator in the top 10 WW for 2019? I mean-everyone's entitle to their own opinion BUT there does come a point where things are just silly and foolish if meant to be serious. BUT at least the top 5, #8 and #10 are reasonable. Btw, there are 11 on that list. I don’t see why Pikachu won’t make the top 10 worldwide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I'm always prepared to be surprised, but it looks like we're in for another slow year at the box office, because nothing is jumping out at me as a hit, particularly in the first quarter. It gets a bit better as you go, but not by a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) I'm also ready for this 15 year pattern of two down years followed by an up year (in admissions) to end, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Notice also how each up year doesn't quite reach the heights of the previous one. There's a constant, inexorable downward trend Edited January 3, 2019 by lab276 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, lab276 said: I'm also ready for this 15 year pattern of two down years followed by an up year (in admissions) to end, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Notice also how each up year doesn't quite reach the heights of the previous one. There's a constant, inexorable downward trend That's uncanny..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) Ok. Here’s my predicts for this year. Though they will be worldwide grosses. 1. The Lion King = 2.1B 2. Avengers: Endgame = $2.0B 3. Star Wars: EP9 = $1.27B 4. Frozen 2 = $1.17B 5. Jumanji 3 = $1.15B 6. Pets 2 = $1.13B 7. Spiderman: Far from Home = $1.070B 8. Hobbs & Shaw = $1.065B 9. Captain Marvel = $1.040B 10. Toy Story 4 = $1.035B 11. Detective Pikachu = $1.030B 12. Aladdin = $970M 13. Godzilla: King of the Monsters = $910M 14. How to Train Your Dragon 3 = $780M 15. It: Chapter 2 = $770M 16. Dumbo = $730M 17. Shazam = $710M 18. Joker = $680M 19. Men In Black: International = $615M 20. ??? = ???M Edited January 10, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Yeah I think the years of 2012, 2015 and 2018 had blockbuster that really were well loved by audiences compared to other years imo. 2015 was a year so big where Ultron made 1.4 million and ended up 4th while in 2016 and 2017 it would have won the year handily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGAR4LIFE Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 9 hours ago, lab276 said: I'm also ready for this 15 year pattern of two down years followed by an up year (in admissions) to end, but I'm not gonna hold my breath. Notice also how each up year doesn't quite reach the heights of the previous one. There's a constant, inexorable downward trend Might be unrelated but maybe it’s because people are not going to the movies as much? Netflix is really changing the industry. In just their first week, Birbox generated 45M views and The Christmas Chronicles generates 20M. Translating and rounding those numbers to box office would be something like 450M and 200M OW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 10 hours ago, lab276 said: I'm always prepared to be surprised, but it looks like we're in for another slow year at the box office, because nothing is jumping out at me as a hit, particularly in the first quarter. It gets a bit better as you go, but not by a lot. I'm guessing that is meant to be sarcastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucasmessi12 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 hours ago, jedijake said: Alita, Pikachu, and Terminator in the top 10 WW for 2019? I mean-everyone's entitle to their own opinion BUT there does come a point where things are just silly and foolish if meant to be serious. BUT at least the top 5, #8 and #10 are reasonable. Btw, there are 11 on that list. Pikachu trailer had a strong buzz here in Brazil and I think in all Latin America too, chance of Detective Pikachu being top 10 worldwide in 2019 is big, and also... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GraceRandolph Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Only doing 1B+ ww grossers: 1. End Game 1.9 B 2. Lion King 1.5 B 3. Star Wars 1.2 B 4. Frozen 1.1 B bonus: Captain Marvel will FLOP. People are overpredicting it. 650M max! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
