Weekend Thread | Coco 19M, JL 9.4M, Wonder 9.3M, TDA 6.4M, T:R 6.25M, DH2 5.7M, MOTOE 5M (Deadline estimates) | Bunch of Awardsy stuff making money too

[RichWS]

I was gonna see Florida Project and Coco tomorrow but the snowstorm is gonna delay that.

[filmlover]

That Shape of Water number: 

 

Fantastic start for I, Tonya too considering it's expected to be an Actress/Supporting Actress play only and Neon is still a very new studio. Quality pays, people.

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

Christmas time would be a good release date for Paddington 3. If it's well-received, it might be able to outgross the first two.

Only issue is that it would face competition from Sing 2. Perhaps release it as counter programming to Avatar 2 with early OS release. They wouldn't release it in November since they'd have Fantastic Beasts 3.

[Fancyarcher]

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Only issue is that it would face competition from Sing 2. Perhaps release it as counter programming to Avatar 2 with early OS release. They wouldn't release it in November since they'd have Fantastic Beasts 3.

Releasing it a week or two before Christmas may be the smart thing to do. It can take a hit from Sing 2 while still doing well enough for a little while.

Edited December 9, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[Valonqar]

I'm not gonna start singing and dancing over Shape of Water number yet please be true! 

Edited December 9, 2017 by Valonqar

[CJohn]

Shit looking good for the limited releases. I will celebrate tomorrow if the Friday numbers confirm these estimates.

[Webslinger]

It would be nice to see The Disaster Artist playing a bit higher, but $7 million in 840 theatres would be a solid for a film about a cult favorite.

[dxmatrixdt]

Three years ago, Chris Rock's Top Five opened during the second weekend in December and made 6.9M from 979 theaters for a $7,045 avg.  If Distaster Artist has the same PTA, it will make 5.92 weekend.   ....I put 5M in the Derby....  ahhh!!! I should have stuck with 6M.  Im gonna loose lots of points.  I put 3M for Just Getting Started.  It is possible for it to collapse from Deadlines estimate and actually make 3M for the weekend (then I should win).  hahahaahaha. 

[MovieMan89]

Really surprised about Shape of Water. Have hardly seen any marketing and GDT has always struggled at the DOM box office, even when he does tentpoles. Would be pretty crazy if this carries over to its wide release and it ended up beating PR for his top grossing movie DOM. 

Edited December 9, 2017 by MovieMan89

[EmpireCity]

8 hours ago, That One Guy said:

That's a $51k PTA for Shape of Water, Jesus

Am I missing something here?  If it does $1m this weekend at 41 locations, that is a $25k PTA and not $51k.  

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Am I missing something here?  If it does $1m this weekend at 41 locations, that is a $25k PTA and not $51k.  

Deadline is talking about $2.1m in 41 location, for a crazy PTA hold:

 

Also widening on the specialty scene is Fox Searchlight’s The Shape of Water from two NYC venues to 41 sites, currently looking at $650K today and a $2.1M second weekend for $2.36M. 

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Deadline is talking about $2.1m in 41 location, for a crazy PTA hold:

 

Also widening on the specialty scene is Fox Searchlight’s The Shape of Water from two NYC venues to 41 sites, currently looking at $650K today and a $2.1M second weekend for $2.36M. 

 

I don't know who did the original update, but that is flat out wrong and looks like they corrected it.

 

Quote

Also widening on the specialty scene is Fox Searchlight’s The Shape of Water from two NYC venues to 41 sites in 12 markets, currently looking at $377K on Friday and a $1M second weekend for $1.25M.

 

[EmpireCity]

I had to triple check the numbers, but their original update was hilariously wrong.  Shape Of Water might do $1m or so this weekend, so will be a $25k PTA which is still pretty good.  

[Ryan Reynolds]

The grade is in for @JGSMovie. What do you think? https://t.co/5Hsz9bjeju #CinemaScore pic.twitter.com/tCLDDJILCj

— CinemaScore (@CinemaScore) December 9, 2017

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I don't know who did the original update, but that is flat out wrong and looks like they corrected it.

 

 

Ok thanks, it did feel like a typo to me, I went and tried to check the list of movie doing 50+k average on 40 theater or more :

 

The biggset box office openner did it (force awaken), Grand Budapest Hotel,  seem to be the only case.

 

Grand budapest started with 202k average to maintain above 50k with a 66 theater weekend, 2.5 time more than Shape of water 83k (in just 2 theater)....

 

 

 

 

[That One Girl]

Just Getting Started's Cinemascore:

 

[DAJK]

Any updates on Disaster Artist? @EmpireCity

 

Also, and I always feel bad for asking so many questions (and this one's completely outta left field) but what's your hunch on how Maze Runner 3 gonna do? The first movie was what kinda prompted me to join the forums so it's got a little place in my heart

[filmlover]

Just Getting Started receiving a C CS grade is the kiss of death for a film like that. It'll be gone from theaters completely before Christmas even gets here.

 

That earlier number for The Shape of Water was too good to be true. Still doing great, though.

[MikeQ]

Looks like Deadline also revised Coco's weekend projection upward to $19M:

 

Quote

Disney/Pixar’s Coco is coming in higher from what we saw during Friday midday with $19M, a 31% ease at 3,748 locations for a running total by Sunday of $136.3M. 

 

Who knows if Deadline will be right (I wish they just gave a Friday number), but if Coco achieves this for the weekend it will have topped Moana's third weekend, despite opening smaller than Moana.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Ryan Reynolds]

Industry estimates as of Friday night for the weekend of Dec. 8-10:

1.) Coco(DIS), 3,748 theaters (-239) / Fri: $4.1M (-35%)/ 3-day cume: $19M (-31%)/Total: $136.3M / Wk 3

2.) Justice League (WB), 3,508 theaters (-312)/$2.6M Fri (-43%)/  3-day cume: $9.6M  (-42%)/Total: $212.1 M/ Wk 4

3.) Wonder (Lionsgate), 3,519 theaters (+70) /$2.75M Fri (-24%)/3-day cume: $9.3M (-23%)/ /Total: $101.1M/Wk 4

4). Thor: Ragnarok (DIS), 3,047 theaters (-101) / $1.7M Fri (-36%)/ 3-day cume: $6.3M (-36%) / Total cume: $301M / Wk 6

5.) The Disaster Artist  (A24), 840  theaters (+821) / $2.4M Fri (+382%)/3-day cume: $6M (+397%)/PTA: $7k /Total: $7.6M/Wk 2

6) Daddy’s Home 2 (PAR), 3,263 theaters (-140) /$1.55M Fri (-26%)/ 3-day cume: $5.65M (-25%)/ Total: $90.8M/Wk 5

7) Murder on the Orient Express (FOX), 3,089 theaters (-112)/  $1.5M Fri (-24%)/ 3-day cume: $5.2M (-22%)/Total: $92.9M/ Wk 5

8). Lady Bird (A24), 1,557 theaters (+363) /$1M Fri (-19%)/3-day cume: $3.66M (-15%)/ Total cume: $22.45M / Wk 6

9.) Just Getting Started  (BG), 2,161 theaters / $1.1M Fri/3-day cume: $3.6M/Wk 1

10.) The Star (SONY), 2,976 theaters (+154) /$713K Fri (-20%) / 3-day cume: $3.3M (-17%)/Total:$32M/Wk 4

11) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO (FSL), 1,620 theaters (+190) / $921K  Fri (-33%)/ 3-day cume: $3.28M (-25%) /Total: $18.7M /Wk 5

Notables:

The Shape of Water  (FSL), 41 theaters (+39) / $377K Fri (+580%)/3-day cume: $1M (+514%) /PTA: $24,9k /Total: $1.25M/Wk 2

Darkest Hour (FOC), 53 theaters (+49)/ $207K Fri (+750%) /3-day cume: $664K (+513%) /PTA: $12,5k/ Total: $1.1M/ Wk 3

Call Me By Your Name  (SPC), 9 theaters (+5)/ $82K Fri (+7%)/3-day cume: $250k (-15%) /PTA: $27,8k /Total: $1.3M/Wk 3

I, Tonya (NEON), 4 theaters / $84k Fri/PTA: $57,8k/3-day cume: $231k/Wk 1

Wonder Wheel (AMZ), 47 theaters (+42)/ $54K Fri (+45%)/3-day cume: $143k (+14%)/PTA: $3k /Total: $309K/Wk 2

 

http://www.deadline.com/2017/12/box-office-coco-the-disaster-artist-guillermo-del-toro-shape-of-water-margot-robbie-i-tonya-1202223071/

Edited December 9, 2017 by Ryan Reynolds