Moviepass and its Impact on the Box Office

[Rumpot]

1 hour ago, ChrisTelclear said:

They have people frauding them.  They want some people to prove they bought the ticket.   I guess you could activate it, and then use it nearby to buy something else.  It's just an activated debit card, it doesn't really know what you're buying.  Another thing people can do, if MP is blocking a showing, like they did for Red Sparrow when it opened, you can just selected another movie starting at the same time, get it activated, then go to the kiosk and select the blocked movie.  It defeats the block. 

 

I don't think this will be a long term solution for them.  Once they grow to a certain size they'd go broke hiring people to check out the pictures of the stubs, unless they develop some AI that can read it for them.  

So then what's all this "data" moviepass keeps touting? They don't even know what you're doing with the $10-15 they give you daily...

[MaxAggressor]

 

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180323005347/en/MoviePass™-Lowers-Price-6.95-Month

 

MoviePass™, the nation’s premier movie theater subscription service and a majority-owned subsidiary of Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. (Nasdaq: HMNY), today announced that, for a limited time, it is offering its annual subscription to new subscribers for $6.95/month.

 

The annual $6.95/month plan is available for new MoviePass subscribers only, and gives new subscribers the ability to attend up to one new movie per day in theaters for a whole year. MoviePass works at over 91% of theaters in America. MoviePass, with over two million subscribers, contributed during recent opening weekends 17% of box office to Paramount Picture’s Annihilation, 10% of box office to Orion Picture’s Every Day, and 9% of box office to Fox Studio’s Love, Simon.

[WrathOfHan]

 

[Porthos]

Eh.  You have to buy a full year upfront ($83.40 $89.95 after 'processing fee') and it's new customers only.  I've seen worse loss-leaders designed to entice new subscribers.  It was unsustainable before, and this doesn't change the underlying dynamic all that much.

 

Also, as I check, this MIGHT lock in subscribers to a yearly plan, though the splash page on MoviePass is a little vague.  Not going to go through the signup process (and give them that sweet sweet personal data they crave) to see if I can switch to monthly billing after a year has passed.

Edited March 23, 2018 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Eh.  You have to buy a full year upfront ($83.40 $89.95 after 'processing fee') and it's new customers only.  I've seen worse loss-leaders designed to entice new subscribers.  It was unsustainable before, and this doesn't change the underlying dynamic all that much.

 

Also, as I check, this MIGHT lock in subscribers to a yearly plan, though the splash page on MoviePass is a little vague.  Not going to go through the signup process (and give them that sweet sweet personal data they crave) to see if I can switch to monthly billing after a year has passed.

It's also the same price as the November deal they had...just switched in the "processing fee", but it's the same $89.95...

[Eric Furiosa]

http://www.slashfilm.com/moviepass-ticket-numbers/

 

Quote

MoviePass recently provided data to Business Insider laying out the 27 movies that have been the most successful with their users. Here's how they've broken down:

 

Over 200,000 tickets sold:

• Pitch Perfect 3
• Peter Rabbit
• Molly’s Game
• 12 Strong
• Tomb Raider
• The 15:17 to Paris
• A Wrinkle in Time
• Darkest Hour
• Death Wish
• The Commuter
• Maze Runner: The Death Cure
• Lady Bird
• Murder on the Orient Express
• I, Tonya

More than 300,000 tickets sold:

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Justice League
• Red Sparrow
• Coco

More than 400,000 tickets sold:

• Annihilation
• The Post
• Thor: Ragnarok
• The Shape of Water

More than 500,000 tickets sold:

• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• Game Night
• The Greatest Showman

More than 750,000 tickets sold:

• Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

More than 1 million tickets sold:

• Black Panther

Seeing the numbers for movies like The Greatest Showman and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle help explain how those movies remained so successful at the box office for an extended period of time. Though we obviously can’t place all the success on MoviePass, surely plenty more moviegoers went to see these movies because it wasn’t going to cost them a dime.

 

If we take the average ticket price of going to a movie in 2017 at $8.97, then the lower tier of movies that sold over 200,000 tickets earned at least $1.79 million from MoviePass tickets. And the numbers only get higher from there.

 

[The Panda]

7 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

http://www.slashfilm.com/moviepass-ticket-numbers/

 

 

That means at most around 10 million or so if Black Panther’s BO is from MoviePass.  Not insignificant, but nowhere near enough for them to have bargaining power.  

[That One Girl]

So...I guess Annihilation benefited the most from Moviepass?  Especially compared to its gross

Edited March 27, 2018 by That One Guy

[BK007]

What was the bullshit about Insidious benefitting that was reposted every day earlier this year? lol

And all the passive aggressive smilies and know-it-all attitude to boot and it's not even sold 200,000 tickets, not even $2m of the gross.

Insufferable.

[AniNate]

I think I've used up the full cost of my annual pass at this point so anything I get from here on out is gravy.

[ChrisTelclear]

5 hours ago, The Mad Panda said:

That means at most around 10 million or so if Black Panther’s BO is from MoviePass.  Not insignificant, but nowhere near enough for them to have bargaining power.  

I don't think they are targeting the tentpoles, I think they are trying to establish themselves as the savior of the mid-budget/indie movie, which are most of the movies in theaters.  Look at some of the titles it's helped the most; Game Night, Red Sparrow, Annihilation, The Post, 3 Billboards.  When you look at the total number of tickets sold vs. the percentage sold from MP, that tells you the real story of the impact.

 

For Red Sparrow for instance:

 

tickets sold via MP: 300000

Total tickets sold: 4797900

 

Percentage via MP: 6%  or $2.7M at the box office. (and that's after they blocked Red Sparrow on opening weekend in their little experiment, it might have been considerably higher had they not done that)

 

For Game Night: 

 

tickets sold via MP: 500000

Total tickets sold: 6621400

 

Percentage via MP: 7.5% or $4.5M at the box office.

 

These aren't huge numbers, but they are significant to a lower budget movie.  Black Panther was only about 1.4% of total sales.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, ChrisTelclear said:

I don't think they are targeting the tentpoles, I think they are trying to establish themselves as the savior of the mid-budget/indie movie, which are most of the movies in theaters.  Look at some of the titles it's helped the most; Game Night, Red Sparrow, Annihilation, The Post, 3 Billboards.  When you look at the total number of tickets sold vs. the percentage sold from MP, that tells you the real story of the impact.

 

For Red Sparrow for instance:

 

tickets sold via MP: 300000

Total tickets sold: 4797900

 

Percentage via MP: 6%  or $2.7M at the box office. (and that's after they blocked Red Sparrow on opening weekend in their little experiment, it might have been considerably higher had they not done that)

 

For Game Night: 

 

tickets sold via MP: 500000

Total tickets sold: 6621400

 

Percentage via MP: 7.5% or $4.5M at the box office.

 

These aren't huge numbers, but they are significant to a lower budget movie.  Black Panther was only about 1.4% of total sales.

 

 

But then the question remains: would a significant portion of those MP users see a movie without the service? I'm willing to bet at least 40-50% would, which further deflates MP's impact.

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

But then the question remains: would a significant portion of those MP users see a movie without the service? I'm willing to bet at least 40-50% would, which further deflates MP's impact.

It probably depends on the movie...and if they are on watch #2, 3, etc...

 

The tentpoles would probably get a 1st watch...the comedies probably would get a pass, since didn't we see how awful they were performing until late last year?

 

And the indies would probably get a hard pass...

 

Moviepass was right to understand they can have the most effect (and make themselves the most money) by turning formerly "wait for Netflix" movies to "see in theater" movies...

 

With Red Sparrow and Game Night already breaking so high on the list (especially with Red Sparrow's block out), it does show the MP effect is continuing to get stronger even as they piss off customers...In fact, seeing all those Jan/Feb releases that didn't do much, but did hit the "top 27" sold on Moviepass ever means they are just selling more and more of the base tickets (as they've said)...right now, they are 5-8% of almost every mid-release this year...and probably still growing...

 

PS - And Tomb Raider makes the top in only 1 week, since I'm sure that article did not have this weekend's numbers - over 200K in tickets in one week (and probably most focused on the weekend) is now getting pretty significant for mid-range openers...

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Cap]

19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

But then the question remains: would a significant portion of those MP users see a movie without the service? I'm willing to bet at least 40-50% would, which further deflates MP's impact.

Speaking just from personal experience, it is a mixed bag.

 

I have had my MoviePass since last November, and have used it to see 28 different movies. Of those 28, 11 I would have 100% skipped if not for MP, 6 I would have been wait-and-see on, and 12 I would’ve gone regardless for. 

[The Panda]

Even if you add like 4.5m to Shape of Water, it’s somewhat inconsequential.  Especially since I reckon around 1-2m of that would have happened anyways.

 

It’s still not enough to bargain for theater revenue cuts, which seems to be their goal.

Edited March 27, 2018 by The Mad Panda

[AniNate]

Even if I might've seen the movies anyway, MP lets me be more flexible with the showtimes. I would aim for discount days unless I had no other choices, but now I can just go whenever I have a night off work.

[ChrisTelclear]

47 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

But then the question remains: would a significant portion of those MP users see a movie without the service? I'm willing to bet at least 40-50% would, which further deflates MP's impact.

I think that may have been what MP was trying to establish when they blocked Red Sparrow.  How many people went to something else? How many paid full price and went to see the movie anyway?   I'm not sure how they planned to find out that information, I would assume they are working with data analysts to find patterns. 

 

But you can see the mindset of MP users, I've seen a few movies only because I was in my free MP zone, and I've also seen movies multiple times because if it.  Neither would've happened without it, I don't have that much money.  The poster above said they have seen their movies for the year, and the rest is "gravy".  That's how a lot of MP users think, and it's that mindset which will translate into a bigger impact on theater attendance for a given movie.  This why MP is trying to expand it's user base by any means possible, because they need to find a way to make an impact or they will be dead.  They need a partnership with theaters, and with movie studios or this won't work.  I'm not sure what they number is, maybe 10% across the board, not sure.

 

One thing I do know, I'm paying every month, and I'm going to one movie if it kills me, because I don't like paying for nothing.  If that increases overall attendance for MP users by say 5 movies a year, what is that impact?  

 

One area I think MP needs to find a way to tap into is seniors. They attend movies a lot during the day, and really would be big users of MP if the technology wasn't so scary to them. I'd be hitting up a partnership with AARP if I were them, it's a gold mine.

 

 

Edited March 27, 2018 by ChrisTelclear

[Barnack]

8 hours ago, The Mad Panda said:

That means at most around 10 million or so if Black Panther’s BO is from MoviePass.  Not insignificant, but nowhere near enough for them to have bargaining power.  

And for an event movie like that, a lot of those ticket would still have been bought.... (while less true for non event movie)

 

8 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Seeing the numbers for movies like The Greatest Showman and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle help explain how those movies remained so successful at the box office for an extended period of time.

Look like they sold among the smallest proportion of their tickets via MP on that list, those movie success is probably due to audience that do not go to theater often getting into the hype and not an specially over representation among regular movie goer caused by movie pass.

 

Lady Bird look a bit low on that list, I imagine it is just because it was released quite a while ago when the userbase was small than for the newer release (that would be why a Game Night rival a Last Jedi here I imagine, growing membership + so much of Last Jedi ticket not being MoviePass possible).

Edited March 27, 2018 by Barnack

[upprdeck]

One thing you cant tell from the numbers is whats happening to some movies.  How many movies do parents take kids too that they wouldnt sit thru or take the kids if it was costing them money.  maybe 1 parent took 4 kids to see black panther because it was free with MP, the numbers will not show that scale..  I know as a kid there were lots of movies we never saw because my parents didnt want to pay to sit thru it.

[MovieMan89]

10 hours ago, The Mad Panda said:

That means at most around 10 million or so if Black Panther’s BO is from MoviePass.  Not insignificant, but nowhere near enough for them to have bargaining power.  

We're talking maybe 1% of the gross, and then how many of that 1% would have seen it anyways? It's pretty insignificant in terms of the actual inflation being added by MP. They definitely are nowhere near being able to have bargaining power yet. So we'll see how long they last with this dirt cheap price, because that's clearly what they're hoping their pricing would lead to.