Thursday #s: TLJ 17.8M, Jumanji 7.55M, TGS 2.1M

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

What model are you using to ascertain that it will jump less than 5%?  That doesn't seem overly logical imo.  Also, if you are using that model, then you have to say it will jump by about 140% on Monday.  It's going to have a soft weekend because of Christmas Eve but next week will be a big week and then a good weekend as well.

 

Here's the last time we had this calendar configuration: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-23

 

Apart from Pursuit of Happyness which had like monster word of mouth at the time, everything else basically less than 5-10% on Saturday. 

[MrGlass2]

25 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

This.

 

In short, TLJ is doing what every second SW movie has done - declining in numbers from maxed out first movie. Ep IX will make between TFA and TLJ just like ROTJ and ROTS made between ANH/ESB and TPM/AOTC. If naything, the franchise is working like a clock boxoffice-wise. No surprises though I expect meltdowns when IX increases over TLJ but not enough to catch up with TFA (which is totally expected given the boxoffice pattern).  

Again, why consider these movies a trilogy when Disney will keep producing Star Wars for decades?

[AndyLL]

3 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

What model are you using to ascertain that it will jump less than 5%?  That doesn't seem overly logical imo.  Also, if you are using that model, then you have to say it will jump by about 140% on Monday.  It's going to have a soft weekend because of Christmas Eve but next week will be a big week and then a good weekend as well.

Yeah... Sunday will drop hard but shouldn't today and tomorrow be normal if not holiday big?

 

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It's the closet we have to compare TLJ with R1, instead of having the data from 11 years ago with those films that had much much lower gross

Neither offer good comps.  TLJ was hard enough to predict normally but with the calendar it's impossible.

 

We won't know until next week if this has good/average/bad WOM.  Not that anyone will stop posting absolutes during the weekend.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Rogue One grossed another $310.18m after the first week. Last Jedi was about 6% ahead of Rogue One on Thursday, but as we know the holiday calendar sets up very well for Last Jedi over the next few weeks. Here are some possibilities for Last Jedi's remaining run:

 

10% ahead of Rogue One = $640m finish

15% ahead of Rogue One = $655m finish

20% ahead of Rogue One = $670m finish

25% ahead of Rogue One = $685m finish

30% ahead of Rogue One = $700m finish

35% ahead of Rogue One = $715m finish

40% ahead of Rogue One  = $730m finish

45% ahead of Rogue One = $745m finish

50% ahead of Rogue One = $761m finish (beats Avatar)

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

Again, why consider these movies a trilogy when Disney will keep producing Star Wars for decades?

 

Because it is a trilogy - The Sequel Trilogy. Everybody knows that Episode IX marks the end for the Skywalker/New Characters of TFA/TLJ storyline. Other SW movies are just other SW movies not included in the Sequel Trilogy.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, The Last AndyLL said:

Yeah... Sunday will drop hard but shouldn't today and tomorrow be normal if not holiday big?

 

Neither offer good comps.  TLJ was hard enough to predict normally but with the calendar it's impossible.

 

We won't know until next week if this has good/average/bad WOM.  Not that anyone will stop posting absolutes during the weekend.

 

so, you are trying to say, we shouldn't predict or project at all?? just wait and see approach? then why are we bother to have BOT forum? We can just get the actual/realized data from BOM.

 

 

[AndyLL]

15 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

so, you are trying to say, we shouldn't predict or project at all?? just wait and see approach? then why are we bother to have BOT forum? We can just get the actual/realized data from BOM.

Not sure where I said that.  I said we don't have good comps.

 

Everyone will have to make their own assumptions and predict off of those.

[IronJimbo]

Maybe TLJ's performance is balancing the force.

[Taruseth]

5 hours ago, m3racer123 said:

Jurassic World made over $87m in its first set of weekdays.

Thank you, of course you are right, so the true list is:

 

Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	142.889.379	21.12.2015 – 24.12.2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	111.908.355	28.12.2015 – 31.12.2015
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	BV	89.345.263	26.12.2016 – 29.12.2016
Jurassic World	UNI	87.405.385	15.06.2015 – 18.06.2015
The Dark Knight	WB	80.203.728	21.07.2008 – 24.07.2008
Finding Dory	BV	78.257.629	20.06.2016 – 23.06.2016
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	76.800.425	18.12.2017 – 21.12.2017

 

Edited December 22, 2017 by Taruseth

[Valonqar]

26 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Again, why consider these movies a trilogy when Disney will keep producing Star Wars for decades?

They won't be a trilogy when all 9 are done but those that are released as trilogies didn't stray from the set boxoffice pattern (max-out with the first, deep dive with the second, recovery but not to the max with the third). It's just something that help predictions, that's all. You have to have a precedent.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Valonqar

[The Panda]

38 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Again, why consider these movies a trilogy when Disney will keep producing Star Wars for decades?

Because the next set of Star Wars films will not be a continuation of this storyline?

 

Why consider The Dark Knight a trilogy when's WB will keep making Batman for decades?

Edited December 22, 2017 by The Last Panda

[TwoMisfits]

Daily Domestic Chart for Thursday December 21st, 2017

← Previous Chart

Chart Index

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Las…	Walt Disney	$17,800,000	+5%	4,232	$4,206	$296,510,009	7
2	(2)	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony Pictures	$7,550,000	+5%	3,765	$2,005	$14,758,112	2
3	(3)	The Greatest Showman	20th Century Fox	$2,147,660	-12%	3,006	$714	$4,598,731	2
-	(4)	Ferdinand	20th Century Fox	$1,688,290	+22%	3,621	$466	$19,482,884	7
-	(6)	Wonder	Lionsgate	$932,146	+8%	2,676	$348	$112,957,750	35
-	(9)	Justice League	Warner Bros.	$364,855	-10%	2,208	$165	$221,623,455	35
-	(7)	The Disaster Artist	A24	$358,260	-17%	1,010	$355	$14,810,401	21
-	(12)	Lady Bird	A24	$295,416	-5%	947	$312	$27,300,818	49
-	(11)	Daddy’s Home 2	Paramount Pictures	$271,317	-20%	1,545	$176	$98,275,556	42
-	(13)	Murder on the Orient Express	20th Century Fox	$221,145	-16%	1,200	$184	$98,721,983	42
-	(14)	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	$213,252	-10%	158	$1,350	$4,565,665	21
-	(15)	Three Billboards Outside Eb…	Fox Searchlight	$178,286	-12%	707	$252	$22,215,619	42
-	(-)	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	$129,995	-2%	84	$1,548	$2,853,077	30
-	(-)	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX Entertainment	$72,844	-33%	1,038	$70	$71,358,592	51
-	(-)	Blade Runner 2049	Warner Bros.	$11,276	+6%	100	$113	$91,524,557	77
-	(-)	Geostorm	Warner Bros.	$10,249	+4%	165	$62	$33,424,531	63
-	(-)	Jigsaw	Lionsgate	$10,132	+6%	151	$67	$38,052,832	56
-	(-)	The Florida Project	A24	$9,338	+16%	66	$141	$5,166,086	77
-	(-)	Despicable Me 3	Universal	$7,930	-7%	109	$73	$264,624,300	175
-	(-)	The Ballad of Lefty Brown	A24	$7,856		2	$3,928	$7,856	7
-	(-)	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	$5,432	+9%	93	$58	$34,393,507	70
-	(-)	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	20th Century Fox	$5,085	+9%	92	$55	$100,199,005	91
-	(-)	The Mountain Between Us	20th Century Fox	$4,947	+24%	112	$44	$30,348,555	77
-	(-)	The Breadwinner	GKIDS	$4,400	+101%	28	$157	$200,827	35
-	(-)	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	$4,215	+10%	56	$75	$22,196,285	91
-	(-)	Marshall	Open Road	$2,823	+28%	71	$40	$9,437,547	70
-	(-)	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	A24	$2,765	+13%	23	$120	$2,285,729	63
-	(-)	Birdboy: The Forgotten Chil…	GKIDS	$1,902	+28%	4	$476	$11,855	7
-	(-)	Last Flag Flying	Amazon Studios	$1,158	+38%	9	$129	$965,481	49
-	(-)	Same Kind of Different as Me	Pure Flix Entertain…	$511	+290%	7	$73	$6,360,709	63

[JB33]

1 hour ago, Rebeccas said:

Rogue One’s holiday school schedule is the same as this year’s at least where I live so is there any other reason for this disparity? I didn’t think Rogue One was UNIVERSALLY adored either?

This. People, stop mentioning the calendar. We get it. The calendar is the same deal as last year with RO. Everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring the question about the difference in drops and just saying "But the calendar! The calendar!"

Edited December 22, 2017 by JB33

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

This. People, stop mentioning the calendar. We get it. The calendar is the same deal as last year with RO. Everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring the question about the difference in drops and just saying "But the

No it's not.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

This. People, stop mentioning the calendar. We get it. The calendar is the same deal as last year with RO. Everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring the question about the difference in drops and just saying "But the

Except the calendar isn't the same as RO, and there were more schools out for RO.  That's been said multiple times. 

[MrGlass2]

4 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

Because the next set of Star Wars films will not be a continuation of this storyline?

 

Why consider The Dark Knight a trilogy when's WB will keep making Batman for decades?

The next Star War films will certainly continue this storyline since this storyline is the history of the Galaxy. And I would bet that many of the characters from TFA/TLJ will return as needed in Episodes 10+. Disney won't wait 15 years to release Episode 10 either.

 

Nolan's Batman is certainly a trilogy. Not only that, but it was clear when TDKR was released that it was indeed the final chapter.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Here's the last time we had this calendar configuration: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-23

 

Apart from Pursuit of Happyness which had like monster word of mouth at the time, everything else basically less than 5-10% on Saturday. 

 

Yea, I was using 2006 as well and you aren't telling the whole story.  Besides POH, there were 4 other films that increased more than 14% on Saturday. And then when you look at the Monday many films jumped more than 100%.  I think TLJ will have a 15-20% increase on Saturday.  

[The Panda]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

The next Star War films will certainly continue this storyline since this storyline is the history of the Galaxy. And I would bet that many of the characters from TFA/TLJ will return as needed in Episodes 10+. Disney won't wait 15 years to release Episode 10 either.

 

Nolan's Batman is certainly a trilogy. Not only that, but it was clear when TDKR was released that it was indeed the final chapter.

I'm pretty sure the next trilogy is set in a new corner of the Galaxy.  Ie, not episode 10.

 

Disney may decide not to continue the episodes after 9.

[JB33]

By the way, is it almost impossible to post for anyone else with all the fucking ads? Like, what the fuck happened to this forum???

[The Panda]

Just now, JB33 said:

By the way, is it almost impossible to post for anyone else with all the fucking ads? Like, what the fuck happened to this forum???

I don't see any ads, must have been because I donated.