4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[DAR]

2 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Colin Trevorrow, Lord and Miller, Josh Trank and Gareth Edwards say hi

At my job we call that Plan Do Check Adjust

[DAR]

Just now, That One Guy said:

Pitchmas in a few hours

[filmlover]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

A bunch of angry people in the Internet

To which I say...

 

[IronJimbo]

You guys aren't going to like this theory but I've said it before and here it goes.

 

General Audience didn't love TFA anywhere as much as anyone let on, it was simply put, pretty unmemorable for a Star Wars movie.

 

So what we've had is the die hards all barrel in last weekend like they always do. Then after that is where the GA us meant to pick up the slack.

 

I think TFA and close sequel fatigue are both bigger reasons for low end numbers rather than WOM on TLJ.

[Rebeccas]

Just now, The Futurist said:

How long before the upcoming  Kathy Kennedy Press release about the next Rian Johson trilogy and how it is not "Star Wars-y enough" to her taste ?

3 days ?

3 weeks ?

3 months ?

Place your bets !

They should just have a mad lib for fired directors at this point. 

 

_____ is unable to complete this film due to unforeseen _____, although we wish him the best in future endeavors.

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Colin Trevorrow, Lord and Miller, Josh Trank and Gareth Edwards say hi

Maybe no panic, maybe they calmly fire directors  

[redfirebird2008]

9 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I do think the OW being closer to TFA’s than we expected is largely owed to the cliffhanger with Luke and what this movie does with Luke likely pissed of a lot of people who waited 2 years for this. It’s the classic you build up something so much that already it was going to be hard to live up but the film chose instead to take a dump on that build up.. you can’t be surprised! 

 

Similar to TDKR. Batfans weren’t expecting him to be a quitter for 8 years. But that movie still had a great run. Bunch of superhero sequels have come up short of that movie’s 2.78 multiplier and that sucker had a ton of midnight frontloading on opening weekend. 

[Rebeccas]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

You guys aren't going to like this theory but I've said it before and here it goes.

 

General Audience didn't love TFA anywhere as much as anyone let on, it was simply put, pretty unmemorable for a Star Wars movie.

 

So what we've had is the die hards all barrel in last weekend like they always do. Then after that is where the GA us meant to pick up the slack.

 

I think TFA and close sequel fatigue are both bigger reasons for low end numbers rather than WOM on TLJ.

Except why was TLJ’s OW so close to TFA’s? The OW is a reflection of how audiences felt about previous films, anything after that is a reflection on THIS film. 

[JB33]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

You guys aren't going to like this theory but I've said it before and here it goes.

 

General Audience didn't love TFA anywhere as much as anyone let on, it was simply put, pretty unmemorable for a Star Wars movie.

 

So what we've had is the die hards all barrel in last weekend like they always do. Then after that is where the GA us meant to pick up the slack.

 

I think TFA and close sequel fatigue are both bigger reasons for low end numbers rather than WOM on TLJ.

I think it has a lot more to do with TLJ than TFA.

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'd say a finish under $700M DOM is under what most projected here, right?

It's under what I predicted pre-open, especially after the critical reviews and Carrie Fisher's death...

 

I changed my mind in post-open projections once I saw GA reviews and heard what the movie was...

 

It's like the reverse of WW...even with the bad open, I stuck to my pre-open prediction for total BO b/c everything lined up - it seemed like it could do what many then thought was impossible b/c so many were in love, some were in the okay zone, and no one hated it...

 

Here, even with the good open, it started to feel like a reverse of WW...few were in love, most are in the okay zone, and a non-tiny % outright hated it...

Edited December 23, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Sam]

4 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Colin Trevorrow, Lord and Miller, Josh Trank and Gareth Edwards say hi

At first signs of trouble, Disney fired directors left and right while WB double (triple?) down on Snyder.

 

One can say people do indeed cope with stress differently. 

[The Panda]

I think we should wait and see how the rest of the Holidays turn out before drawing conclusions.

Edited December 23, 2017 by The Last Panda

[filmlover]

Just now, The Last Panda said:

I think we should wait and see how the rest of the Holidays churn out before drawing conclusions.

We gotta occupy the next three days until we can finally open our presents somehow.

[Brainbug]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Similar to TDKR. Batfans weren’t expecting him to be a quitter for 8 years. But that movie still had a great run. Bunch of superhero sequels have come up short of that movie’s 2.78 multiplier and that sucker had a ton of midnight frontloading on opening weekend. 

 

Actually, TDKR is a very good comparison to TLJ reception. The critics loved TDKR, it has 87% on RT with an 8/10 average. But i know for a fact, that it divided the fanbase - you either loved or hated it.

 

5 years later, and the heat of the debate has thankfully died down long ago. Maybe it will be the same with TLJ, especially with Episode IX potentially giving the events of VIII a different look (not that i hope that this happens). 

[Premium George]

14 minutes ago, DARth DAR said:

I say this not having seen the film yet but I guarantee what Johnson and the story group came up with is better 99.9999999999999% of any fan head cannon

That's a very low bar.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

Except why was TLJ’s OW so close to TFA’s? The OW is a reflection of how audiences felt about previous films, anything after that is a reflection on THIS film. 

I mean is was 30m less.. ain't no casual coming back for sws after TFA.

 

 

 

[Rebeccas]

I don’t think fans love TDKR even now it’s just much better than what DC is doing at the moment lol so I guess once the SW version of BvS comes out we’ll all appreciate this one more?

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

I think we should wait and see how the rest of the Holidays turn out before drawing conclusions.

The holidays will logically provide a nice bump, but most people here are done holding their breath that the holidays will be huge enough to make up for the mediocre drops after opening weekend. We will see standard holiday bumps, if that. That's just to be expected.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Actually, TDKR is a very good comparison to TLJ reception. The critics loved TDKR, it has 87% on RT with an 8/10 average. But i know for a fact, that it divided the fanbase - you either loved or hated it.

 

5 years later, and the heat of the debate has thankfully died down long ago. Maybe it will be the same with TLJ, especially with Episode IX potentially giving the events of VIII a different look (not that i hope that this happens). 

 

TDKR’s 2.78 multiplier was about 17.5% lower than TDK’s 3.36 multiplier. If Last Jedi’s multiplier is 17.5% lower than TFA, it finishes around $685m. 

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Except why was TLJ’s OW so close to TFA’s? The OW is a reflection of how audiences felt about previous films, anything after that is a reflection on THIS film. 

One possibility is that hard core fans shows up OW for TLJ, and Star Wars fandom domestically is always reliable. TFA didn't manage to maintain the interest of many general public who showed up for TFA due to its event status. So the legacy of TFA may be reflected on the legs of TLJ as well.