4-day Weekend Thread: 5-day numbers per BOM - TLJ 99.0M, J:WTTJ 55.4M, PP3 26.4M, TGS 14.4M, F 10.1M, C 8.2M, D 7.7M and an incredible $5,480,000 for Father Figures

[Blaze Heatnix]

Wait, wait and wait. Are you guys saying there's a chance TLJ misses a 3x multiplier? That would be atrocious.

 

I'm curious about what that means for Episode IX. 

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

JW’s 652 requires grossing 20% more than Rogue One the rest of the way. Very hard considering Christmas Day was around 6% ahead of Rogue One’s Christmas Day gross. 

 

In the end we could be looking at a neck and neck race between Last Jedi and Avengers 1. 

I think looking at one day makes the comps wonky. For eg on Tuesday RO dropped 30%! cause Sun, Mon were the 2 bigger days out of Sun,Mon,Tue. For TLJ Mon, Tue are the bigger 2 days. So I wouldn't just focus on the CD difference of 6%.

 

It's good to low-ball so that one doesn't feel disappointed but TA's 623 is not a realistic target IMO - shouldn't go below 640 in the end. 640-670 (655 middle) seems legit.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, DarthPynchon said:

One word: competition. 

 

TLJ is facing healthy competition from all 4 quadrants. It will have a hard time breaking away with walk ups.

The competition is no different then Rogue One or something like avatar faced.

 

It's damn star wars ...people will watch it if they hear good things about it.

[RandomCat]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Wait, wait and wait. Are you guys saying there's a chance TLJ misses a 3x multiplier? That would be atrocious.

 

I'm curious about what that means for Episode IX. 

Depends, if Disney is happy with 600M domestic or not.

[grim22]

Anyone know how many theaters are actually doing Cheap Tuesday today? Some of them have exceptions for holidays.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

I think looking at one day makes the comps wonky. For eg on Tuesday RO dropped 30%! cause Sun, Mon were the 2 bigger days out of Sun,Mon,Tue. For TLJ Mon, Tue are the bigger 2 days. So I wouldn't just focus on the CD difference of 6%.

 

It's good to low-ball so that one doesn't feel disappointed but TA's 623 is not a realistic target IMO - shouldn't go below 640 in the end. 640-670 (655 middle) seems legit.

 

640 isn’t locked. Requires a 14.5% lead on Rogue One’s remaining gross. Not guaranteed by any means and could easily go lower. 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Anyone know how many theaters are actually doing Cheap Tuesday today? Some of them have exceptions for holidays.

EmpireCity said most aren't.

[Poseidon]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Considering how Christmas works, movies can put decent totals with small but very consistent daily numbers. For eg: Passengers, on it's way to 100m (well...) had only 2 days north of 6.0m (days 5 and 6 hit 7.5m) :

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=passengers2016.htm

 

So Jumanji could have well done 150 dom with 0 days going north of 11m using Passengers trending. But 3 out of 6 days have crossed that mark. Tuesday will too, along with a couple more days at least till New Years Monday.

Jumanji should look like:

Tue: $19m (+0%)

Wed: $16m (-15%)
Thu: $14,5m (-10%)
Fri: $16m (+10%)
Sat: $16m (+/-0%)
Sun: $10,5m (-35%)
Mon: $12m (+15%)

$176m on Jan 1st.

 

[GirafficPark]

If this gets to 655M it will have dropped 30% from TFA, which is in line with the second movie of the other 2 trilogies (Empire dropped 32%, AOTC dropped 30%). So if it goes over 655 it will actually be the most successful second movie in all 3 trilogies. Expectations aside, that's not a failure.

[Lordmandeep]

It's cheap Tuesday for Cineplex chain here in Canada which controls 80 percent of the market.

 

 

Yes one movie chain owns 80 percent of the market here.

[MattW]

All the same theaters around me have $5 tickets today, Cinemark and the local chain.

[Taruseth]

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Wait, wait and wait. Are you guys saying there's a chance TLJ misses a 3x multiplier? That would be atrocious.

 

I'm curious about what that means for Episode IX. 

I would say there is more as a chance that it misses that, would need 660 Mio for that and right now it looks like it will fall short of that.

I think 600-620 Mio is were this movie is heading.

1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said:

It's cheap Tuesday for Cineplex chain here in Canada which controls 80 percent of the market.

 

 

Yes one movie chain owns 80 percent of the market here.

That is a real monopoly.

[LonePirate]

Lost amidst TLJ’s underperformance and Jumanji’s surprising performance is the massive disappointment of Pitch Perfect 3. Its four day gross including Christmas is less than PP2’s opening day. Will it even reach $75M for a final gross? 

[FTF]

^ and wow yeah that’s bad for pp3.

 

Jumangi is stealing a good chunk of TLJ’s

family audience...about $5m worth on xmas day as that’s the difference between the estimate and actuals for both.  

Edited December 26, 2017 by FTF

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

If this gets to 655M it will have dropped 30% from TFA, which is in line with the second movie of the other 2 trilogies (Empire dropped 32%, AOTC dropped 30%). So if it goes over 655 it will actually be the most successful second movie in all 3 trilogies. Expectations aside, that's not a failure.

This is based on each movie's first run?

[SWXII]

23 hours ago, Hatebox said:

TFA was the definition of design by committee (a committee whose MO was "make it as much like A New Hope as possible".)

 

It's weird because I didn't even like TLJ that much, but man there's a lot of bullshit being peddled around here.

 

It doesn't take a committee to reskin the same plot. I had the same complaint about TFA but also completely understand why Disney was so careful.

 

TLJ tried to work in way too many ideas. It desperately could use a re-edit before release to the secondary markets. Some of it defines the term 'cringe worthy'. Other aspects are the strongest we have seen from any of the other films. Luke's story could not have been handled better in my opinion. I rate Episode 8 far higher than any of the prequels.

[GirafficPark]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

This is based on each movie's first run?

Yes, first run only.

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, GirafficPark said:

Yes, first run only.

Yeah just checked. Fair enough.

 

I guess the lesson here is Star Wars episode-to-episode historical trends outweighs box office trends. Otherwise, we wouldn't see TLJ deviating so much in a bad way.

 

I maintain that this Christmas Day jump is a major disappointment though, no matter the circumstances. WOM clearly is an issue as well.

Edited December 26, 2017 by JB33

[EpicBoom23]

11 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

Depends, if Disney is happy with 600M domestic or not.

Is this a rhetorical question?

[Poseidon]

PP3: $6,5m
TGS: $5,2m

 

http://deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-dwayne-johnson-jumanji-zac-efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

 

That's a nice rebound for TGS.