FantasticBeasts Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said: and 40 years of exposure OS may change OS perception of SW. Who knows what 40 years will bring. Yeah but the only thing that is sure is that the time where blockbusters relied on America alone is gone and will get even worse for the decades to come. Edited December 28, 2017 by FantasticBeasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 This is a surprisingly strong hold, much higher than I expected (18M-19M) and suggests that 700M is back on the table (though far from a lock). The moral of the story: let the Holiday Season start before talking about whether or not it was a success. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoLegMan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, SpiritComix said: Well, if you look the Top 200 December Opening Weekends at the Box Office, you will see: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&p=.htm - More than 95% of that movies had a multiplier bigger than 3x (I found only 7 movies - 3% - with a multiplier a little smaller than 3x, and the vast majority of them was a flop: The Golden Compass, Star Trek:Nemesis, Aeon Flux, In the Heart of the Sea, Analyze That, Psycho [1998] and Krampus). - But even the majority of movie flops there had a multiplier bigger than 3x. I think we have enough data to analyze. If SW gets to 660 it's a 3x multiplier, 660 is still possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, SpiritComix said: Well, if you look the Top 200 December Opening Weekends at the Box Office, you will see: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/month/?mo=12&p=.htm - More than 95% of that movies had a multiplier bigger than 3x (I found only 7 movies - 3% - with a multiplier a little smaller than 3x, and the vast majority of them was a flop: The Golden Compass, Star Trek:Nemesis, Aeon Flux, In the Heart of the Sea, Analyze That, Psycho [1998] and Krampus). - But even the majority of movie flops there had a multiplier bigger than 3x. I think we have enough data to analyze. No, we don't. We have nothing comparable to a 200+ opening in DEC other than TFA. We have nothing comparable to a 150+ opening in DEC besides TFA and RO. I don't think two datapoints is enough data to analyze what is or isn't good for a multi off a weekend this high. And I think comparing it to films that made less than 100M OW is foolish. but that's my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: That's a big problem for Star Wars though. Isn't it? In another 40 years from now, DOM may not consist of more than 30% of the final gross of the average movie. Not necessarily. SH movies weren't big OS until they exploded. I think that SM3 was shockingly the first SW movie ever to cross 500M OS (others were stuck in 200M+ range). And then nothing to write home about until TA made almost 900M OS. from there on, OS is heaven for SH movies. And NuSW is already making between 500M and 1b OS (though I don't expect another 1B OS in near future for any SW movie) Not to mention F&F explosion. of all franchises, it's the only one that managed 1B OS twice! Outside of Cameron Brand. So SW is going to be fine. Edited December 28, 2017 by Valonqar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said: Yeah but the only thing that is sure is that the time where blockbusters relied on America alone is gone and will get even worse for the decades to come. I didn't dispute that. Just that we don't know how SW will be seen OS in 40 years, so it isn't fair to try and compare how it's perceived now and expect it to be the same. (It may get even worse, I don't know, but I doubt it stays still) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I still think TLJ can get past a 3x multi, its holds have been underwhelming but it’s really hard to say something that will finish around the #3 all-time domestic mark had a bad run at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 My dad is trying to talk me into seeing Jumanji instead of Star Wars 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Looks this is heading for 60 million 3rd weekend if numbers hold and 80 million 4-day. Around 530 million Jan 2nd. Still puts it around 660-670 finish I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, The Last Panda said: I still think TLJ can get past a 3x multi, its holds have been underwhelming but it’s really hard to say something that will finish around the #3 all-time domestic mark had a bad run at all. 3x multi is doable with favorable week of Jan 7. So this week should be nice and it shouldn't drop hard next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punishment Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, grey ghost said: How much did ESB and AOTC drop from previous SW movies? I feel like expecting a 10-20% drop for TLJ was always a long shot because of how the second movie typically drops. Looking at original runs only: ESB did 68% of SW (would give TLJ a $634,012,332 total with same % of TFA) AOTC did 70% of TPM (would give TLJ a $656,609,452 total with same % of TFA) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 TLJ will likely have a sub 50% drop in weekend 4, unlike TFA and RO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Lordmandeep said: TLJ will likely have a sub 50% drop in weekend 4, unlike TFA and RO. It also has easier January competition than those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meriodejaneiro Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Not necessarily. SH movies weren't big OS until they exploded. I think that SM3 was shockingly the first SW movie ever to cross 500M OS (others were stuck in 200M+ range). And then nothing to write home about until TA made almost 900M OS. from there on, OS is heaven for SH movies. And NuSW is already making between 500M and 1b OS (though I don't expect another 1B OS in near future for any SW movie) Not to mention F&F explosion. of all franchises, it's the only one that managed 1B OS twice! Outside of Cameron Brand. So SW is going to be fine. True, but it relies basically on China's box office being about 40% of total OS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: My dad is trying to talk me into seeing Jumanji instead of Star Wars You can't go wrong either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, filmlover said: You can't go wrong either way. I wanna see Star Wars god damn it and I've put off watching it because I thought he would wanna see it Edited December 28, 2017 by Ethan Hunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThomasNicole Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said: Looks this is heading for 60 million 3rd weekend if numbers hold and 80 million 4-day. Around 530 million Jan 2nd. Still puts it around 660-670 finish I think. If it makes + $20M wednesday and thursday, i think $ 68 - 70M this weekend is more possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: My dad is trying to talk me into seeing Jumanji instead of Star Wars Just see both 3 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: I wanna see Star Wars god damn it and I've put off watching it because I thought he would wanna see it lmao, you really have to stop waiting for others to see movies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
75Live Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: I wanna see Star Wars god damn it and I've put off watching it because I thought he would wanna see it so let him see Jumanji and you go into Star Wars 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: My dad is trying to talk me into seeing Jumanji instead of Star Wars Ethan.... Im proud of you for this take, you really are growing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
