New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[JB33]

12 minutes ago, Larry McGillicuddy said:

I'd "explain it away" by saying we have very little precedent for movies released on this calendar that have made this much money. Of course, I think it's silly that anything needs to be explained away for a film that is going to finish top 5 all time and make $400 million after its opening weekend. 
 

This is a lazy response.

[Blankments]

@WrathOfHan happy end of 2017:

 

6x:

 

Pacific Rim: Uprising: Blade Runner 2049, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3

Ready Player One: It, Blade Runner 2049, It Round 2, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

Molly’s Game: Logan Lucky, mother!, American Made, Murder on the Orient Express, Lady Bird, Downsizing

 

5x:

 

Black Panther: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, mother!, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3

Den of Thieves: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Justice League, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3

Annihilation: Blade Runner 2049, Happy Death Day, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

 

4x:

 

12 Strong: The Declassified True Story of the Horse Soldiers: Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Alpha: Dunkirk Round 2, Geostorm, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

A Wrinkle in Time: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

Isle of Dogs: The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Downsizing

 

3x:

 

Death Wish: Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D

Deadpool 2: Logan, Logan Round 2, Justice League

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: Happy Death Day, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3

Tomb Raider: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Geostorm, Murder on the Orient Express

Paddington 2: The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Wonder, Coco

Duck Duck Goose: My Little Pony: The Movie, Wonder, Coco

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

Avengers: Infinity War: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

Fifty Shades Freed: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

The Commuter: American Made, Murder on the Orient Express, All the Money in the World

Early Man: Wonder, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Wonder Round 2

Sherlock Gnomes: Wonder, Coco, Coco Round 3

Blockers: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2, Downsizing

A Quiet Place: Justice League, The Shape of Water, Downsizing

 

2x:

 

Polaroid: Wind River, Happy Death Day

Red Sparrow: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The Snowman

The New Mutants: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

All the Money in the World: American Made, The Disaster Artist

Rampage: Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2

Phantom Thread: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Lady Bird

Game Night: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2

Winchester: The House That Ghosts Built: The Disaster Artist Round 2, The Shape of Water

Alita: Battle Angel: Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

Lean on Pete: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

The 15:17 to Paris: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

Incredibles 2: Coco, Coco Round 3

 

1x:

 

The Current War: Wind River                                                                            

Super Troopers 2: Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Insidious: The Last Key: Happy Death Day

Peter Rabbit: Coco

The Miracle Season: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Mortal Engines: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Thoroughbreds: The Disaster Artist

Samson: All the Money in the World

Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool: All the Money in the World

Sicario 2: Soldado: All the Money in the World

Chappaquiddick: Downsizing

[scabab]

Still not hitting $700 million I see.

 

Wasn't there supposed to be a chance? I was told there was a chance, nope.

[The Futurist]

400,450, 500, 550m whatever, the main point is that Ep 9 will be the lowest grossing film of its trilogy which would be a first. 

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, scabab said:

Still not hitting $700 million I see.

 

Wasn't there supposed to be a chance? I was told there was a chance, nope.

Sorry Terminator you'll have to check the timeline where Star Wars is good.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

400,450, 500, 550m whatever, the main point is that Ep 9 will be the lowest grossing film of its trilogy which would be a first. 

It won't be the lowest grossing.

[a2k]

Every disappointed-by-SW8 Star Wars fan will line up on ow for SW9. I think SW9 could beat SW8's ow by 10m (or more) with proper marketing. 230-240 ow, 2.5-2.6x gives around 575-625 dom. Can't go below that range imo, could do more if it's very well received.

Edited December 30, 2017 by a2knet

[James]

There is no way in hell Ep 9 does under 500m. Come on! My 640m prediction from a year ago for TLJ looks to be spot on and I think for Ep 9 the mark to beat is 600m. My prediction is 570m for now. 

[NoLegMan]

 we have officially devolved.

[JonathanLB]

9 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

400,450, 500, 550m whatever, the main point is that Ep 9 will be the lowest grossing film of its trilogy which would be a first. 

That's not happening, especially not with that awesome calendar setup. Monday is going to be huge, probably a 35-40% drop from Sunday, Tuesday will take a dive because of Xmas Eve, strong rebound for a monster Xmas Day, the 26th is Thursday and that will be enormous, then feed right into Friday, Saturday, Sunday, a huge weekend with another full set of awesome weekdays after that. It's two straight weeks and three weekends of holidays with Xmas Eve and NYE on favorable days. Not to mention the conclusion of the highest grossing trilogy of all time. Episode IX is going to crush. 

[NoLegMan]

If PM didn't kill Star Wars TLJ won't either.

[TwoMisfits]

I think it's almost impossible to predict 2 years out...we are still trying to see how Moviepass going from 10K subscribers in 2016 to almost 2 million in 2017 is gonna affect the market in 2018.  We'll also have to see whether they go under or whether they become a 20 million subscriber behemoth in 2 years (or somewhere in between) and what that does to the whole movie-going industry.  And, if they become 20 million, what terms they have (b/c they'd be the behemoth, pretty much setting the terms)...and if they go out of business, what effect that will have on people paying for tickets they used to get way cheaper...

 

Gonna be an interesting 2018...and I won't attempt to predict anything for 2019 until that shakes out...

 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[boomboom234]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

I log on today and see that now Episode 9 is being predicted under $450m domestic.  

 

Lol.  Keep up the good work.  

I mean outside of the numbers which you have access to, you have been wrong every step of the way regarding the reception of this film. 9 will break 450 easily but it could very well do under 8

[NoLegMan]

EP 9 won't even cross 300mill globally.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

That's not happening, especially not with that awesome calendar setup. Monday is going to be huge, probably a 35-40% drop from Sunday, Tuesday will take a dive because of Xmas Eve, strong rebound for a monster Xmas Day, the 26th is Thursday and that will be enormous, then feed right into Friday, Saturday, Sunday, a huge weekend with another full set of awesome weekdays after that. It's two straight weeks and three weekends of holidays with Xmas Eve and NYE on favorable days. Not to mention the conclusion of the highest grossing trilogy of all time. Episode IX is going to crush. 

hmmmmm, now I ain't saying I think sws9 is going to make less than sws8, but I've seen quite a few not happenings happen this last couple weeks.

[NoLegMan]

I'll defend EmpireCity, he has been way more accurate than a majority of this thread.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

I mean outside of the numbers which you have access to, you have been wrong every step of the way regarding the reception of this film. 9 will break 450 easily but it could very well do under 8

[boomboom234]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Eh in the early stages of the spoiler thread he kept insiiting that the reception wasn't mixed and that anyone saying that was a blind fanboy you can go check if you want

[Brainbug]

So ive looked up every direct sequel to a movie that became the highest-grossing film domestic since Jaws (1975), because that movie was more or less the start of blockbuster moviemaking as we know it today:

 

I used BOM and its adjusting mechanic. I have to trust BOM when it comes to some movies first runs, because several films like Jaws, SW and Co. got re-released ofc.

 

Jaws: First run: 260M, adju. 1.1B -> Jaws 2: First run: 77,7M, adj. 296,6M. A fall of 182,3M or 803,4M adj or -70,1% (uuuffff)

 

SW: ANH: First run: 307,2M, adj. 1,274B -> ESB: First run: 209,4M, adj. 704,2M. A fall of 97,6M or 570M or -31,8%

 

E.T. obviously had no sequel.

 

Jurassic Park: First run: 357M, 770M adj. -> JP: TLW: Run: 229M, 445,7M adj. A fall of 128M or 324,3M or -35,9% 

 

Titanic had a sequel, but i woudnt count that

 

Spoiler

 

Avatar 2 wont come out for 3, 4, 10, 90 years, but Avatar isnt the DOM champ anymore, so doesnt matter here.

 

Now, i make a pessimistic prediction for TLJ and say it will earn 615M in the end.

 

SW: TFA: 936M (inflation doesnt really make that much a difference here) -> SW: TLJ: 615M, a fall of 321M or -34,3%

 

So while the fall for TLJ would be very steep in raw dollars, the percentage decline for it compared to the other three movies in this list remains in the same ballpark with Jaws 2 as the poor outlier. Make of that what you want, i find it very interesting to play with the numbers

 

Of note, anything above 638M would give TLJ the smallest %-drop from its predecessor from the movies on this list.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Brainbug

[a2k]

While talking about SW prequels worth bringing up the budget too. AOTC's prod budget was only 115m; dom gross itself was 2.7x that. TLJ's prod budget might be 3x 115m.

 

With all the growth OS and new markets like China (and the release costs that follow) TLJ would need ~2b ww to match the same prod budget to ww multiplier as AOTC (650/115).