New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[DAJK]

Really interested in this upcoming January to be honest. Insidious looks DOA, and Commuter may not fare too well (although I'd still give it a chance), but Paddington, 12 Strong, and Maze Runner seem like interesting runs to follow:

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

1/3 of the people that watched TFA are skipping TLJ.

 

I saw TPM eleven goddamn times in theatres(ugh), and I fucking loved it.  I saw Clones twice(loved it at the time too) and Sith once.  

 

There's a reason there's only like 3 movies to sell 90m tickets in the last 30 years or so.  It's really fucking hard to do, lol.  

 

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

 

Why?

 

Johnson has a whole blank canvas to work with. All new story with all new characters. No convoluted back story with already established characters that people are so connected to they can’t take any little change that happens. 

 

I can’t wait to see what he does with it. 

 

To be fair, they haven't made anything official, they can totally go back on this if they want to.

 

That being said, if they want to continue making SW films forever, they have to test the waters on movies that really have no connection to the Skywalkers in any way shape or form.  So I think they would be wise to do it, just maybe don't go overboard on the budget.  $100-150m and see how it goes. 

[CoolioD1]

johnson's gonna figure out the story of the new trilogy and then they're gonna TAKE IT AWAY and give it to Jake Kasdan.

[YM!]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Cloverfield 3 got pushed back to April 20: https://www.amctheatres.com/movies/2017-cloverfield-movie-imax-50367

 

This date is getting crowded FAST. They should honestly just move it to the second or third weekend of May where there's nothing between IW and Solo.

They might not get IMAX anymore due to Rampage.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

but we are in an era where the data for December is still so young that it is incomplete.  The calendar is weird and only happens about once every 12 years.  It has a longer impactful running time.  There is another monster break out crowd pleasing 30 minute shorter family film stealing away business.  There is more traffic in the wide releases.  

I'd like to highlight this.

 

We generally know how to look at blockbusters in the summer. We generally know how to look at blockbusters in March and April.  

Why?

 

Because we have a loooooong trail of data.

 

We even have enough data to see change in trends as they happen every few years and adjust accordingly.  We know now that a 3x movie in the summertime is a heck of a lot leggier now than a 3x film in the summertime was in 2008, for instance.

 

We even have a lot of data for November releases, stretching back years. 

 

What we just don't have is all that much data for December mega releases.  I'm tempted to say we have exactly three right now.  But if one wants to open up the field to other films, whatever, I'm not going to argue vociferously.

 

Complicating that is the shifting calendar which doesn't apply for literally any other timeframe of the year.  Even a variable holiday like Easter is still a 4 day weekend affair.

 

By the time the calendar gets close enough to repeat, the box office landscape changes.

 

Makes it hard to come to 'rules' of Holiday box office, IMO.

 

====

 

Now I personally think as we get more and more blockbusters released in the Xmas season, we'll get more and more understanding of what we should expect.  But right now, and I do mean right now, we're still sorta in the Wild Wild West era of all of this.  

 

Or, to put it another way, we are exactly at the point where the maxim "a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing" comes into play.

 

IMO, it's undeniable to say that TLJ looks to be underperforming.  But, who knows, I could be wrong by how much it's underperforming.  All this noise on the internet and anecdotal evidence might just be that.  We might come to see in the future than a 3x off a 200m+ OW in the holidays is "just fine".

 

Not terrible.  Not great.  But "just fine".

 

Just have to get a few more 200m+ OWs in this time frame to really find out. Hell, I might even settle for a couple of 190+ ones.

 

 

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

I saw TPM eleven goddamn times in theatres(ugh), and I fucking loved it.  I saw Clones twice(loved it at the time too) and Sith once.  

 

Did you pay?

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

johnson's gonna figure out the story of the new trilogy and then they're gonna TAKE IT AWAY and give it to Jake Kasdan.

 

starring Cameron Diaz.

[mikee11]

deadline were spot on yesterday don't they have new estimate for today?

[vc2002]

TPM 431m -> AOTC 302m = 29.9% drop

TFA 936m -> TLJ 660m= 29.4% drop

 

AOTC 302m -> ROTS 380m = 25.8% jump

Using the same jump for SW9 would give it 830m.

[Deep Wang]

9 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Did you pay?

Yes, lol.

[babz06]

49 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

So 2018 will start with a bang with a Sony Pictures press release which will be about :

 

Release dates for Jumanji 2,3,4 (5,6 & 7 & beyond probably already scheduled)

Spin-offs and possible JCU.

Video Games.

The "Jumanji Brand".

No but Scott at Forbes suggested that Sony should keep in the business of these mid-budgeted live action family/adventure films. Barbie could be a hit for them and replacing Amy Schumer (who isnt kid friendly), with Anne Hathaway (who definitely is) is a good start. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by babz06

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

Yes, lol.

 

[JonathanLB]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'd like to highlight this.

 

We generally know how to look at blockbusters in the summer. We generally know how to look at blockbusters in March and April.  

Why?

 

Because we have a loooooong trail of data.

 

We even have enough data to see change in trends as they happen every few years and adjust accordingly.  We know now that a 3x movie in the summertime is a heck of a lot leggier now than a 3x film in the summertime was in 2008, for instance.

 

We even have a lot of data for November releases, stretching back years. 

 

What we just don't have is all that much data for December mega releases.  I'm tempted to say we have exactly three right now.  But if one wants to open up the field to other films, whatever, I'm not going to argue vociferously.

 

Complicating that is the shifting calendar which doesn't apply for literally any other timeframe of the year.  Even a variable holiday like Easter is still a 4 day weekend affair.

 

By the time the calendar gets close enough to repeat, the box office landscape changes.

 

Makes it hard to come to 'rules' of Holiday box office, IMO.

 

====

 

Now I personally think as we get more and more blockbusters released in the Xmas season, we'll get more and more understanding of what we should expect.  But right now, and I do mean right now, we're still sorta in the Wild Wild West era of all of this.  

 

Or, to put it another way, we are exactly at the point where the maxim "a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing" comes into play.

 

IMO, it's undeniable to say that TLJ looks to be underperforming.  But, who knows, I could be wrong by how much it's underperforming.  All this noise on the internet and anecdotal evidence might just be that.  We might come to see in the future than a 3x off a 200m+ OW in the holidays is "just fine".

 

Not terrible.  Not great.  But "just fine".

 

Just have to get a few more 200m+ OWs in this time frame to really find out. Hell, I might even settle for a couple of 190+ ones.

 

 

Pretty much exactly right. So because a lot of movies opening to $40-60M or even less, pathetic totals basically, all achieved 3-4x multiples that means any movie no matter what even the 2nd biggest opener every should hit 3.5x easily? I grant you both previous SW films did but TFA is such an outlier it’s hardly worth considering seriously as a “good example of how things should work normally” and Rogue One opened way smaller. There just wasn’t the same “must see” factor to Rogue One so if anything I think that’s positive for TLJ that people rushed to see it unlike last year with R1 and that they’ll have spent way more money seeing TLJ. 

 

I do wonder if the calendar doesn’t just shift money around but actually impacts what is possible depending on configuration. This particular calendar being especially poor. As an employer I can see my employees using more vacation days in 2019 because of Xmas being right in the middle of the week and same with New Years. That’ll mess with our clients too since we are B2B and it would be pointless to be doing much work if they’re not working either. This year didn’t have that same feel. It’s ironically likely a better thing for the box office when the calendar screws over business with mid-week holidays two weeks in a row lol.

[mikee11]

4 minutes ago, vc2002 said:

TPM 431m -> AOTC 302m = 29.9% drop

TFA 936m -> TLJ 660m= 29.4% drop

 

AOTC 302m -> ROTS 380m = 25.8% jump

Using the same jump for SW9 would give it 830m.

AOTC was really weird generally agreed upon that it's the worst SW  also had Spiderman as competition. It's not some destined number.If AOTC was better  received it would make better money, just like TLJ

[NoLegMan]

I miss when Spiderman 2 was the big blockbuster film.

 

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, babz06 said:

No but Scott at Forbes suggested that Sony should keep in the business of these mid-budgeted live action family/adventure films. Barbie could be a hit for them and replacing Amy Schumer (who isnt kid friendly), with Anne Hathaway (who definitely is) is a good start. 

Even Emoji was a hit for Sony. 50 prod budget 217 ww (86 dom + 131 os).

 

They had a few others apart from SMH, J and BD that should make them profit eventually:

The Star - prod budget 20, 54 ww (40 dom + 14 os)

Smurfs3 - prod budget 60, 197 ww (45 dom + 152 os)

Resident Evil - prod budget 40, 312 ww (27 dom + 285 os)

Edited December 31, 2017 by a2knet

[TwoMisfits]

If MT.com % gap and my local area have been the indicators for Jumanji vs TLJ (and usually neither is all that on point for most movies, but they have seemed to be so far in both of these movies' runs)...I'd expect there to be almost no gap between the 2 movies today...

 

Feel free to tease me about this post tomorrow, b/c I should have a totally wrong call coming:)...you can't have too many in a row without eventually ending up with blown one...

 

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[junkshop36]

37 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

TLJ's OW was really impressive considering how little the marketing did to really give a lot to get hyped over. A pretty sleepy campaign. They can't do that with IX. 

 

I’ll bet they’re a little more open about the movies story and such. Maybe get a few more behind the scenes stuff and interviews. I doubt we get more trailers than we did for TLJ. Either way, I think 9 can still hit 190-200 OW

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

LONG ASS POST EVEN FOR ME SNIPPED

The tl;dr version of the above post.

 

There are exactly two films, adjusted or not, to make over 200m over the OW in the December holiday season.

There are exactly three films, adjusted or not, to make over 150m over the OW in the December holiday season.

Hell, there are exactly three films, adjusted or not, to make over 120m over the OW in the December holiday season.

 

If one wants to give an Honorable Mention to RotK because it made 180m+ in its 5 day OW, be my guest.  Congrats, we now have four.  One of which was 14 years ago.  Hell, even throw in The Two Towers which hits 150m+ in its 5 day OW for the 120m teir.  Congrats, we now have five.

 

Five films, two of which we have to squint at and make adjustments on the fly for which were a decade and a half ago when multipliers across the board were better.

 

Yeah.  Think we might want a little more data here. 

 

NB to the tl;dr: This isn't an attempt by me to show that TLJ has great legs.  But it might just be an attempt by me to show we don't know if it has bad legs.  A subtle distinction, but an important one, IMO.